ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical

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TropicalAnalystwx13
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#221 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Aug 08, 2012 8:33 pm

This one continues to have a well defined surface circulation. Gotta watch for regeneration in 2-4 days.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#222 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 08, 2012 10:23 pm

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al062012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208082214
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#223 Postby pricetag56 » Wed Aug 08, 2012 11:12 pm

actually if it stays at the latitude its at the shear lessens farther east sorry i post here every blue moon but i follow waz going on lol
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#224 Postby tailgater » Thu Aug 09, 2012 6:34 am

So would it be classified as Florence if it did regenerate since they don't even have it as a tropical low and have deactivated her invest. She's looking a touch better this morning. If she does move NW she won't threaten the CONUS probably but I'd like to see how the NHC handles her.
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#225 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 09, 2012 9:36 am

The remnants of Florence refuse to die out, she still has a nice vorticity and little bit of convergece with shear starting to led up a bit. I think they need to make her an invest again, though it will be tough with no global model support.
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#226 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:19 am

NDG wrote:The remnants of Florence refuse to die out, she still has a nice vorticity and little bit of convergece with shear starting to led up a bit. I think they need to make her an invest again, though it will be tough with no global model support.


Yes indeed. This is one very persistent wave.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#227 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 09, 2012 11:38 am

looks very good this am.....see if it maintains. Shear has let up and she is over warm water. IMO they should go 20% for regeneration this afternoon...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#228 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 11:41 am

ROCK wrote:looks very good this am.....see if it maintains. Shear has let up and she is over warm water. IMO they should go 20% for regeneration this afternoon...

but i see nhc dont think FLORENCE got any chance
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#229 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 09, 2012 11:44 am

floridasun78 wrote:
ROCK wrote:looks very good this am.....see if it maintains. Shear has let up and she is over warm water. IMO they should go 20% for regeneration this afternoon...

but i see nhc dont think FLORENCE got any chance




true.... I was just saying that IMO, that they should move that to 20% given what it looks like now.....but they are the experts....
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#230 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 09, 2012 11:49 am

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


Looks like it is moving WNW to me not NW...with the low-level flow.

A deep trough from a ULL low over the Great Lakes builds in down the Eastern Seaboard for the weekend, so even if this develops it would recurve away from the United States coastline.
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#231 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:30 pm

i think nhc looking at weather round ex FLORENCE their see shear high and pressure too i wont supprise their still gave it 0

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Last edited by Portastorm on Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Corrected disclaimer formatting
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#232 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:33 pm

Right when they deactivated the Invest for Florence it started to look even better.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#233 Postby Florida1118 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:46 pm

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#234 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:51 pm

so I was 10% off..... 8-) if it keep progressing like this it might jump to 20% later today....IMO....
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#235 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:53 pm

put did go up 10
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#236 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 1:08 pm

their still floater on ex FLORENCE ?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#237 Postby Blinhart » Thu Aug 09, 2012 1:39 pm

Could the ULL that is over Cuba right now in front of ex-Florence have any effect on her? I say if there was any sign of rotation with the remnants right now I think they would re-classify her as at least a TD if not a TS.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#238 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:03 pm

she just got blast by some northly shear and basically decapitation....spit out a huge outflow boundary.....what a difference a few hours make..... :roll:
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