ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical

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Hurricane Alexis
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Re: ATL: SIX - Tropical Depression

#121 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sat Aug 04, 2012 4:05 am

Florida1118 wrote::uarrow: That's the 11pm Cone.


Wow lol, I did this 5 minutes ago I was sure it was the 5 am cone.
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#122 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 04, 2012 4:46 am

If Ernesto exits NE around the ridge TD 6 would probably follow as the weakness left behind expands further east. Could be interesting if 6 gets far enough west to tap the warmer SST's of the gulf stream.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L

#123 Postby somethingfunny » Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:16 am

somethingfunny wrote:
We won't have a TD until tomorrow, if we get a TD out of this. There's no way to upgrade this without visible imagery during daylight. If it holds together overnight and continues to organize though, I think it's very likely going to be a TD tomorrow.

As for a major hurricane, who knows? It's got to stay away from the colder water to its' north and out of any high shear zones or dry air pockets.


Oops. :oops:

Well in any case, here's the visible picture:

Image
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Re: ATL: SIX - Advisories

#124 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:43 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION
OVERNIGHT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY CIRCULAR AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE A UNANIMOUS 30 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS AT
0600 UTC...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT
VALUE.

THE FACTORS THAT COULD AFFECT THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE DEPRESSION
ARE MIXED. THE CURRENT MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CYCLONE AND MARGINALLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES COULD INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE SPLIT...WITH THE SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS SHOWING SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT
5 DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...HOWEVER...PREDICT LITTLE OR NO
STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM
OPENING INTO A TROUGH IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWING THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. THEREAFTER...THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES
TO LEAN TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODELS IN PREDICTING A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...295/14. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD TO
THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
AT DAYS 4 AND 5 TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.2N 29.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.9N 30.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 15.5N 32.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 16.0N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 16.2N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 16.7N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 17.5N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z 19.0N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
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#125 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:34 am

Aaaand we have Florence!


TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
800 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS BECOME
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH...65
KM/HR.


SUMMARY OF 0800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 29.7W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
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Re: ATL: SIX - Advisories

#126 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:43 am

000
WTNT61 KNHC 041132
TCUAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
800 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS BECOME
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH...65
KM/HR.


SUMMARY OF 0800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 29.7W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#127 Postby TheBurn » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:03 am

11:00 UTC RGB Natural Color

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#128 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:05 am

Don't make the mistake of thinking the downgrade to depression further onward is a sign of relief. They wondered if Andrew was going to dissipate at one point.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#129 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:46 am

12z Best Track

AL, 06, 2012080412, , BEST, 0, 146N, 300W, 40, 1002, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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#130 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 04, 2012 8:16 am

its likely been a ts since last night. lets see if it can maintain today and deepen then we will know a little better if it will die after that
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#131 Postby jinftl » Sat Aug 04, 2012 8:26 am

Although smaller in size, Florence actually appears to have better banding features than Ernesto...very impressive looking system that came out of nowhere (or so it seemed to)...

Image
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#132 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 04, 2012 8:36 am

Hi Aric, what do you think about the possible path of Florence? How about the NE carib? Do you think that Florence could pose an eventual risk for the Northern Leewards even if i assume that it's pretty difficult to have a real good idea on that. Tkanks to you.

Gustywind :)
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Florence General Obs

#133 Postby greenkat » Sat Aug 04, 2012 9:29 am

Started a General Obs thread for Florence. Post any comments/obs you might have here. :)
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Re: Florence General Obs

#134 Postby greenkat » Sat Aug 04, 2012 9:32 am

Florence looks pretty hopeless... I think that the only thing to worry about is the depression passing Bermuda.
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#135 Postby greenkat » Sat Aug 04, 2012 9:46 am

I'm not Aric, but I think that it will probably pass too far north of the islands to have much of an impact :D Maybe problems for Bermuda, though. :(
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Advisories

#136 Postby caneseddy » Sat Aug 04, 2012 9:48 am

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041445
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...FLORENCE A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 30.6W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.6 WEST. FLORENCE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
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#137 Postby greenkat » Sat Aug 04, 2012 9:48 am

I don't really think we'll have another Ernesto on our hands.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Advisories

#138 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2012 9:48 am

caneseddy wrote:000
WTNT31 KNHC 041445
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...FLORENCE A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 30.6W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.6 WEST. FLORENCE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


WTNT41 KNHC 041447
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED...A WELL-DEFINED BAND
STILL WRAPS AROUND THE EAST AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE CENTER. A BLEND
OF THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FLORENCE MOVES OVER
MARGINAL SSTS AND MODERATE SHEAR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN MORE STEADILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR FROM A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH TWO DAYS...AND THEN
FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE
MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AT 295/14. A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO
STEER FLORENCE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD PATH DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST 3 DAYS. AT LONG RANGE...THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.

THE FORMATION OF FLORENCE THIS MORNING MARKS THE THIRD EARLIEST
OCCASION THAT THE SIXTH NAMED STORM HAS OCCURRED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...BEHIND ONLY 1936 AND 2005.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 14.8N 30.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 15.5N 32.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 16.0N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 16.3N 36.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 16.5N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 17.5N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 19.5N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1200Z 22.0N 59.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re:

#139 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 04, 2012 9:59 am

greenkat wrote:I'm not Aric, but I think that it will probably pass too far north of the islands to have much of an impact :D Maybe problems for Bermuda, though. :(


well it really all depends on its strength but I dont see any re-curve either way. that ridge is building eastward and should trap it and push it west or even wSW.
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#140 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:28 am

Ernesto seems to be moistening up his environment a little better than Florence at the moment. Florence may spin up too late to miss the ridge that is replacing that ULL.

Here is a good high contrast image loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html
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