ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#141 Postby otowntiger » Sat Aug 04, 2012 11:16 am

She's looking pretty "fishy" to me!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#142 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Sat Aug 04, 2012 11:20 am

12Z GFS suggests its gonna be a fish

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#143 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 04, 2012 11:49 am

Florence is looking very fishy. Looks like a big trough sets over Eastern North America and Western Atlantic in the long-range
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#144 Postby CourierPR » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:06 pm

"well it really all depends on its strength but I dont see any re-curve either way. that ridge is building eastward and should trap it and push it west or even wSW." --Aric Dunn


"Florence is looking very fishy. Looks like a big trough sets over Eastern North America and Western Atlantic in the long-range."--Gatorcane

Two opposing views. I will refer to future NHC discussions to get the rest of the story on Florence.
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#145 Postby greenkat » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:26 pm

Maybe impact SC as weak remnant low, scattered showers, isolated t-storms, nothing serious. :wink:
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Hope this helped ;)

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Re:

#146 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:30 pm

greenkat wrote:Maybe impact SC as weak remnant low, scattered showers, isolated t-storms, nothing serious. :wink:



Is that your prediction Greenkat?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#147 Postby LSU2001 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:52 pm

Greenkat, I see that you are fairly new to S2K but when you make predictions or forecasts you need to put the Storm2K disclaimer in your posts.
Thanks,
Tim

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#148 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 04, 2012 1:24 pm

Thanks to all concerning the possible track of Florence. :) I appreciate sincerely even if we 're far away from reality. Let's wait and see how Florence evolves during the next couple fo days. Us in the islands, hope that Florence uses a way who won't pose any problems for much of the Lesser Antilles.

But, don't forget that our bechmark is close to 20°N 50 W :D because of it's a safe distance to be spare by direct effects ( if any, should it verifies first :) ). Given that, all the tropical systems can go fishing away from our area :D
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#149 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2012 2:12 pm

18z Best Track

AL, 06, 2012080418, , BEST, 0, 151N, 312W, 45, 1001, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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Re:

#150 Postby knotimpaired » Sat Aug 04, 2012 2:44 pm

Gustywind wrote:Thanks to all concerning the possible track of Florence. :) I appreciate sincerely even if we 're far away from reality. Let's wait and see how Florence evolves during the next couple fo days. Us in the islands, hope that Florence uses a way who won't pose any problems for much of the Lesser Antilles.

But, don't forget that our bechmark is close to 20°N 50 W :D because of it's a safe distance to be spare by direct effects ( if any, should it verifies first :) ). Given that, all the tropical systems can go fishing away from our area :D


Gusty, I thought for some reason it was 15/50 :oops: I need to move my pin on my Google map.

Thanks for letting me know.
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#151 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 04, 2012 3:02 pm

Think this should go north of the islands as I think it'll hang on a good deal longer than is expected. As to whether its a fish or not, I'm not sure!!
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Re: Re:

#152 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 04, 2012 3:08 pm

knotimpaired wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Thanks to all concerning the possible track of Florence. :) I appreciate sincerely even if we 're far away from reality. Let's wait and see how Florence evolves during the next couple fo days. Us in the islands, hope that Florence uses a way who won't pose any problems for much of the Lesser Antilles.

But, don't forget that our bechmark is close to 20°N 50 W :D because of it's a safe distance to be spare by direct effects ( if any, should it verifies first :) ). Given that, all the tropical systems can go fishing away from our area :D


Gusty, I thought for some reason it was 15/50 :oops: I need to move my pin on my Google map.

Thanks for letting me know.

lol i don't know maybe you're right :oops: :P
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#153 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 04, 2012 3:08 pm

Hey Cycloneye what is our benchmark? :)
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Re:

#154 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2012 3:11 pm

Gustywind wrote:Hey Cycloneye what is our benchmark? :)


Mines is 18.6N-50W. That 18.6N position is the latitude of the more northern island of the NE Caribbean islands (Anguilla) Any storm going north of that position is a safe thing for us.
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Re: Re:

#155 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 04, 2012 3:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Hey Cycloneye what is our benchmark? :)


Mines is 18.6N-50W. That 18.6N position is the latitude of the more northern island of the NE Caribbean islands (Anguilla) Any storm going north of that position is a safe thing for us.

Thanks to you :), right now we have to hope that all of the storms on our east reached this benchmark :D.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#156 Postby knotimpaired » Sat Aug 04, 2012 3:19 pm

I agree, I am sticking with Luis on this one.

Thanks.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#157 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 04, 2012 3:22 pm

knotimpaired wrote:I agree, I am sticking with Luis on this one.

Thanks.

:) Agree with you too :)
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#158 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 04, 2012 3:24 pm

Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Aug 4, 2012 12:34 pm ET

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

FLORENCE

- Indicative of the Cape Verde season kicking in, Tropical Storm Florence has developed in the eastern Atlantic, the 3rd earliest in the season on record that the 6th storm has formed in the Atlantic basin, behind only 2005 and 1936 (though a big caveat is that some systems which are now classified as storms would not have been so prior to the existence of modern observational technology).
- Florence is not a threat to land for the foreseeable future, and it is going to run into a huge upper-level trough with shearing winds which are likely to weaken the storm.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Advisories

#159 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2012 3:38 pm

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 PM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

AFTER LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED EARLIER...CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED
NEAR THE CENTER OF FLORENCE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE START OF A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCASE PATTERN. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE 35 KT AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.
SINCE A TRMM MICROWAVE PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY SUGGESTED THAT SOME
PRIMITIVE INNER CORE FEATURES HAD FORMED...AND BOTH AMSU AND ADT
DATA INDICATE A STRONGER CYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
BUMPED UP TO 45 KT.

THE CURRENT SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN WITH FLORENCE APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS
PASSING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26.5C...AND IS APPROACHING A MORE
STABLE AND DRY ENVIRONMENT AS INDICATED BY EUMETSAT RGB AIRMASS
IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.
THE STATISTICAL-BASED TOOLS FORECAST FLORENCE TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR TWO...WHICH IS CONTRASTED WITH THE
WEAKENING FORECAST BY THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS JUST A BIT ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND IS HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE. GIVEN THE EARLIER MICROWAVE STRUCTURE...IT IS
TEMPTING TO RAISE THE WIND PREDICTION MORE THAN WHAT IS INDICATED
BELOW...BUT I HAVE ELECTED TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE ON THIS FORECAST
CONSIDERING THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SLOWER...295/13. A BUILDING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE FLORENCE TO BEND TO A WESTWARD HEADING DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A WIDER SPREAD THAN
EARLIER TODAY...WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. GENERALLY THE MODELS THAT ARE FORECASTING A MORE
POWERFUL SYSTEM...SUCH AS THE GFS...ARE CAUSING FLORENCE TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND DAY 4 IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
A WEAKER CYCLONE...AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF...WOULD PROBABLY JUST
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD. SINCE THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...JUST A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 15.3N 31.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 15.8N 33.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 16.2N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 16.6N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 17.1N 41.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 18.5N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 20.5N 54.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 23.0N 59.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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#160 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sat Aug 04, 2012 3:46 pm

000
WTNT31 KNHC 042032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 PM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...FLORENCE GAINING STRENGTH...FAR FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 31.7W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
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