ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical

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#161 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 04, 2012 3:47 pm

NHC not so quick to kill Florence off this time round, now only decays by 120hrs and also forecasted to reach 50kts. As the NHC advisory states, if this does get stronger than expected, it should find an exit route to the north, but we'll need to see just where this system goes in terms of intensity.
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#162 Postby lilybeth » Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:03 pm

Anyone thinking she might become a nice fun fish hurricane for us to watch before she hooks off into the N. Atlantic and dissipates? I know the NHC doesn't forecast her to become more than a TS, but she looks good, to my untrained eye anyway.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#163 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:22 pm

I would give Florence a 25-35% chance of becoming a hurricane. I give it such a high percent because the NHC expected it to only peak at 45 mph, and it has passed that and is expected to continue intensifying.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#164 Postby lilybeth » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:09 pm

Thanks for the answer. Truly appreciated!

And I don't mean to say that the storm will be a fish for sure. I, of course, have no idea what the storm will really do in the end, it just seems to me her current predicted path has her slowly weakening over open water.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#165 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:24 pm

The presentation of Florence is less vigorous than earlier today. Does anyone else agree with this?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#166 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:40 pm

00z Best Track

Up to 50kts.

AL, 06, 2012080500, , BEST, 0, 158N, 324W, 50, 1001, TS,

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#167 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track

Up to 50kts.

AL, 06, 2012080500, , BEST, 0, 158N, 324W, 50, 1001, TS,

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest


When will the NHC update it to 50 knots?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#168 Postby lester » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:54 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track

Up to 50kts.

AL, 06, 2012080500, , BEST, 0, 158N, 324W, 50, 1001, TS,

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest


When will the NHC update it to 50 knots?


At the 11pm Advisory
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#169 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:56 pm

It seems that Florence just appears to be less vigorous, but it has strengthened, according to the 0:00 UTC update. It is still more intense than Ernesto. That's very odd, since Ernesto's appearance is much better defined than Florence. Anyway, since Ernesto was classified, it maintained an unusually high pressure for its wind speed. At least, that's what I think.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Advisories

#170 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2012 9:51 pm

WTNT41 KNHC 050250
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

FLORENCE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. BANDING FEATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CYCLONE HAVE RECENTLY DISSIPATED IN FAVOR OF A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST. EARLIER TRMM AND WINDSAT OVERPASSES REVEAL A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE UNDERNEATH THIS NEW CONVECTIVE MASS...
WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION NOW PRESENT. A DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AT 0000 UTC AND THREE-
HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUES OF AROUND 3.3 ARE THE BASIS FOR
INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY. DESPITE BEING IN A LOW-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH A TONGUE OF
MARGINALLY WARM WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...
EUMETSAT RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS
SURROUNDED BY A RATHER DRY AIR MASS...AND THIS AIR MASS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY FLORENCE ON ITS WESTWARD TREK. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS
SUGGEST THAT ANY STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM WOULD NOT LIKELY
BE SIGNIFICANT. BEYOND 72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW FLORENCE
ENCOUNTERING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. EVEN THOUGH THE
STORM WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS BY THIS TIME...THE SHEAR
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER
THAT TIME. THE FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/13. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE TRACK OF FLORENCE TO BEND TOWARD
THE WEST. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY HEADING. ALTHOUGH
THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED THIS CYCLE...IT
REMAINS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE DIFFERENCE IN TRACK
SOLUTIONS AT LATER TIMES APPEARS DEPENDENT ON THE VERTICAL DEPTH/
STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE...WITH THE ECMWF/GFDL/HWRF FORECASTING A
WEAKER VERSION OF FLORENCE AND THE GFS FAVORING A STRONGER SYSTEM.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES
BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD THE CAMP OF MODELS FAVORING A WEAKER
CYCLONE GIVEN THE SHEAR FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 16.1N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.5N 34.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 17.0N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 17.5N 39.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 18.1N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 19.3N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 20.9N 55.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 23.5N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#171 Postby Riptide » Sun Aug 05, 2012 12:39 am

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#172 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Aug 05, 2012 4:18 am

Good morning, Flo!

Image

NHC wrote:...FLORENCE HAS STOPPED STRENGTHENING FOR NOW...
5:00 AM AST Sun Aug 5
Location: 16.6°N 34.2°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph


Looking at the GFS (which has dominated the 2012 Hurricane Season so far IMHO), it expects Florence to weaken from here and eventually open up into a sharp wave as it moves west-northwest above 20N. Eventually, about halfway between Bermuda and Puerto Rico, it closes off again and intensifies, likely to a hurricane - as it lifts out to the northeast, hopefully bypassing Bermuda to the north of the island. But, that all happens (or doesn't happen!) over a week after this post was written.

Dark days ahead for now:

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#173 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:43 am

Small chance it could hit New England, likely weak though.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#174 Postby OuterBanker » Sun Aug 05, 2012 8:54 am

Interesting scenario with Florence. If she was strong this early and this high a lat she would most certaintly be a harmless fish. But, she is weak and will become even weaker, probably an open wave at some point. In a week or so she could regenerate in the western Atlantic and become a player again. Wait an see. Sure am glad this is going to be a slow season :roll:
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#175 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:51 am

Latest on Florence :)
000
WTNT31 KNHC 051439
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 05 2012

...FLORENCE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 35.6W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
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#176 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Sun Aug 05, 2012 12:13 pm

ABC News saying she could become a cane today...doubt it. http://abcnews.go.com/US/tropical-storm ... d=16933398
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#177 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 05, 2012 12:23 pm

I would give Florence less than 5% chance of becoming a hurricane. Wind shear, dry air and cold waters are really taking a toll on her.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#178 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Aug 05, 2012 2:39 pm

POOF!

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#179 Postby Riptide » Sun Aug 05, 2012 2:43 pm

I'm afraid Florence will be with us for a long time, in some form.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#180 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 05, 2012 2:48 pm

somethingfunny wrote:POOF!

http://i47.tinypic.com/2nc3u6p.jpg


I couldn't agree with you more because Florence has lost almost all of its convection! :(
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