ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Advisories

#181 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2012 3:39 pm

5 AM EDT

WTNT41 KNHC 050837
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 AM AST SUN AUG 05 2012

THE STRUCTURE OF FLORENCE HAS EVOLVED OVERNIGHT FROM A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST TO MORE OF A SHEAR PATTERN...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS CHANGE IN STRUCTURE IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF
MODERATE SOUTHEASTELY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THE STRUCTURAL
CHANGES...DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0600 UTC WERE ESSENTIALLY THE
SAME AS BEFORE...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 50 KT.

FLORENCE COULD GAIN SOME STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE STORM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND IN A FAIRLY
STABLE AIRMASS. THE DUST PRODUCT IMAGERY FROM THE GOES-R PROVING
GROUND SHOWS SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND GFS AND ECMWF MODEL VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS
SUGGEST THAT THIS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE STORM DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN WESTERLY SHEAR BY TUESDAY...AT WHICH TIME STEADY WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN SHEAR.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH AT ABOUT 13
KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST THAT FLORENCE
WILL BEND TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE NHC
FORECAST LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS MOST
OF THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SOUTHWARD TRACK BIAS UP TO THIS POINT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 16.6N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 16.8N 35.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.1N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 17.5N 41.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 18.0N 44.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 19.3N 51.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 21.5N 57.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 24.0N 62.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

11 AM EDT

WTNT41 KNHC 051439
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 05 2012

VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON
THE STRUCTURE OF FLORENCE. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EDGE OF
A WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION...WITH SOME DEGRADATION NOTED ON
MICROWAVE IMAGES. A BLEND OF THE MOST RECENT ESTIMATES STILL GIVES
A CURRENT WIND SPEED OF 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. THERE
HAS BEEN A CHANGE WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH NONE OF THE
MODELS SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. PERHAPS THIS IS
BECAUSE OF A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAN WAS
EXPECTED YESTERDAY. IN ANY EVENT...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW FLORENCE
MOVING DEEPER INTO THE DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH
SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY BE RISING...STRONGER SHEAR IS LIKELY WITHIN
48 HOURS DUE TO A LARGE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY CAUSE WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE NHC PREDICTION IS
PRIMARILY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS SYSTEM
BECAME A REMNANT LOW FASTER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED BELOW GIVEN THE
MARGINAL CONDITIONS.

MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGES SHOW THAT FLORENCE HAS TURNED
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A FASTER WESTWARD
MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER THAT TIME...A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW A TRACK MORE TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD BRING FLORENCE A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE THE ECMWF IS A SOUTHERN
OUTLIER...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PATH OF THE STORM. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AT ALL FORECAST TIMES...BUT REMAINS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH DAY 3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 16.5N 35.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 16.7N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 16.9N 40.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 17.4N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 18.0N 46.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 19.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 21.5N 59.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 24.0N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Advisories

#182 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2012 3:39 pm

WTNT41 KNHC 052034
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 PM AST SUN AUG 05 2012

CONVECTION HAS FALLEN APART NEAR FLORENCE...WITH ONLY SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDS REMAINING. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING...AND THE WIND
SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 45 KT. DESPITE THE RECENT
DECAY...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS HANGING ONTO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN RATHER MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER THAN THE
GFDL/HWRF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE FORMER CLUSTER IS LOWER THAN
BEFORE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGAIN REDUCED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND GENERALLY LIES NEAR OR BELOW THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
DAY 3...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...IT COULD HAPPEN A LOT
SOONER.

FLORENCE APPEARS TO BE MOVING NEARLY DUE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KT. THIS
MOTION AT A LITTLE FASTER PACE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A TRACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD...AND IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 16.3N 36.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 16.4N 38.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 16.7N 41.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 17.2N 44.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 17.8N 47.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 19.5N 54.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1800Z 21.5N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1800Z 24.5N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re:

#183 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:30 pm

HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:ABC News saying she could become a cane today...doubt it. http://abcnews.go.com/US/tropical-storm ... d=16933398

You seem to find the worst of the mainstream media's inaccurate statements on tropical cyclones. Just imagine people actually believing it *shivers*.

The chances of Flo going out to sea without affecting landmass has just gone down considerably today, now it will float across the ocean as a remnant low or open wave until reaching more favorable conditions near landmass.
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Re: Re:

#184 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:34 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:ABC News saying she could become a cane today...doubt it. http://abcnews.go.com/US/tropical-storm ... d=16933398

You seem to find the worst of the mainstream media's inaccurate statements on tropical cyclones. Just imagine people actually believing it *shivers*.

The chances of Flo going out to sea without affecting landmass has just gone down considerably today, now it will float across the ocean as a remnant low or open wave until reaching more favorable conditions near landmass.


Well.... it "COULD".

Image

Mainstream media. :roll: I'll stop there.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#185 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2012 9:36 pm

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 37.9W
ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Advisories

#186 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2012 9:38 pm

WTNT31 KNHC 060233
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 05 2012

...FLORENCE STILL WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 37.9W
ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.9 WEST. FLORENCE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND FLORENCE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

WTNT41 KNHC 060242
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 05 2012

FLORENCE HAD BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR A WHILE UNTIL A
BURST OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. EUMETSAT RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE MASS OF SAHARAN AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE CIRCULATION. THE DRY AIR...COMBINED WITH THE
EFFECTS OF SOME EASTERLY SHEAR AND ONLY MARGINALLY WARM WATERS...
HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR FLORENCE TO MAINTAIN ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB.

EVEN THOUGH THE STORM WILL BE MOVING INTO WARMER WATERS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NEAR-STORM
ENVIRONMENT. WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE
OVER FLORENCE AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLING FOR FLORENCE TO DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS. THIS FORECAST AGREES WELL WITH THE
LATEST DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODELS...THE LATTER
OF WHICH FORECAST DISSIPATION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BEING DISCOUNTED...SHOWS A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11 KT. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW
FLORENCE MOVING QUICKLY ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD COURSE DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK OF FLORENCE SHOULD BEND TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW FORECAST IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION...LYING CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 16.2N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 16.3N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 16.7N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 17.3N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 18.1N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 19.9N 57.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0000Z 22.0N 62.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0000Z 25.0N 67.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#187 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2012 9:45 pm

Excerpt from 11 PM EDT discussion.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BEING DISCOUNTED...SHOWS A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#188 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:18 pm

The 18z GFS jumped back aboard the regeneration wagon (after 0z and 6z showed it but 12z dropped it). The divot of lower pressure in the Bermuda-Azores Ridge in this first image, and the system nearing Cape Cod in the second image, appear to be Florence. Of note: the 0z and 6z GFS runs showed Florence regenerating, but kept her much farther offshore, closer to Bermuda in fact, and shooting off to the northeast.

Image

Image

The answer to the question of if Florence regenerates, and how much it strengthens if it does, may have major implications for the track of the next Cape Verde storm we see gathering steam in these model runs. A stronger Florence would open more of a weakness in the ridge to allow that storm (Gordon?) to recurve harmlessly.
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#189 Postby Andrew92 » Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:29 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113263

Predicting dissipation tomorrow, and no future re-development.

-Andrew92
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Re: Re:

#190 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:54 pm

somethingfunny wrote:
Well.... it "COULD".

*Cut Image*

Mainstream media. :roll: I'll stop there.

I would say the chances of it becoming a hurricane are even lower now. I wouldn't go by that product as its usually way off. There's always a chance for everything but its extremely misleading and is like saying Ernesto is on the verge of becoming a category 4 hurricane, could happen but likely not.

Florence is devoid of all convection and I wonder if its even a TD.
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Re: Re:

#191 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Aug 06, 2012 1:54 am

Cyclenall wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:
Well.... it "COULD".

*Cut Image*

Mainstream media. :roll: I'll stop there.

I would say the chances of it becoming a hurricane are even lower now. I wouldn't go by that product as its usually way off. There's always a chance for everything but its extremely misleading and is like saying Ernesto is on the verge of becoming a category 4 hurricane, could happen but likely not.

Florence is devoid of all convection and I wonder if its even a TD.


Agreed, lol. Florence is coding, bring out Bones. The 0z GFS dropped its' regeneration plans for Florence too. IF Florence regenerates, it could have big implications for the track of the big Cape Verde storm the models are advertising next week, as a regenerated Florence would open up a weakness in the ridge for that storm to follow. But that's about the only thing of note in Flo's future now. :(
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm

#192 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Mon Aug 06, 2012 2:05 am

Now a TD.

AL, 06, 2012080606, , BEST, 0, 162N, 382W, 30, 1009, TD,
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#193 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:20 am

000
WTNT31 KNHC 060831
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 AM AST MON AUG 06 2012

...FLORENCE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 38.8W
ABOUT 1610 MI...2590 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
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#194 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:25 am

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Advisories

#195 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:39 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 AM AST MON AUG 06 2012

FLORENCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS AS DRY AIR...AS SEEN IN THE DUST
PRODUCT FROM THE GOES-R PROVING GROUND...HAS BECOME WELL EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE TO FALL AND
SUPPORT DOWNGRADING FLORENCE TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH AN
INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WARMER
WATERS BEYOND 36 HOURS...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE CYCLONE BY THEN. THE NEW NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR FLORENCE TO
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD
OCCUR AS SOON AS LATER TODAY IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON.
DISSIPATION IS FORECAST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS DUE WEST BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PACE...270/10. THE MODELS AGREE THAT FLORENCE...OR ITS REMNANT
LOW...SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST ECMWF RUN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 16.2N 38.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 16.3N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.6N 44.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 17.2N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0600Z 18.1N 51.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0600Z 20.4N 58.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0600Z 23.5N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Advisories

#196 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:41 am

Last advisory.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 AM AST MON AUG 06 2012

ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FOR OVER 12 HOURS
NOW...AND ALL THAT REMAINS OF FLORENCE IS AN EXPOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 110
MILES WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. CONSEQUENTLY...FLORENCE
IS ASSESSED AS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. A SURROUNDING DRY/STABLE AIR MASS...COOL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD LEAD TO DISSIPATION IN 5 DAYS OR LESS.

THE REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...BUT AT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER RATE OF FORWARD MOTION...275/13. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN SPEED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO THE
SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE TVCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 16.4N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.5N 42.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/1200Z 16.9N 46.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/0000Z 17.6N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1200Z 18.5N 54.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1200Z 21.1N 60.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1200Z 24.2N 66.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#197 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:43 am

The last advisory was written.

FLORENCE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 40.2W
ABOUT 1515 MI...2440 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
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#198 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:50 am

Don't let the :Door: hit you on the way out! See you in 2018 as you take another chance to kill off the last original F name!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#199 Postby Blinhart » Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:56 am

Question for the pro-mets. What are the chances of Flo refiring into a TC the further West she goes?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#200 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 2:07 pm

bye
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