ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2011
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#201 Postby Steve H. » Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:15 pm

Don't think we've seen the last of Florence, but I've been wrong before. Whenever you have a surface circulation in mid August at this latitude ya can't count it out.

----------------
This is not an official forecast by any means - just an observation.
0 likes   

jonj2040
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 214
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Jul 10, 2010 10:00 pm
Location: Palm Bay, FL

#202 Postby jonj2040 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:26 pm

Has some convection for the first time in a while lets see what happens, will it stay, or poof again? Not that it's anywhere close to its former self, just a step in that direction.
Image

not a prediction BTW but

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   
I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ :D

User avatar
Hurricane Alexis
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 663
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:59 pm
Location: Miami,Florida

#203 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Tue Aug 07, 2012 1:20 am

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF AGAIN BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114477
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#204 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2012 7:02 am

8 AM TWO.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING NEAR THE POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW OF FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF AGAIN BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114477
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#205 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2012 8:03 am

The BAMS are running again for ex Florence.

12z Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 071249
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC TUE AUG 7 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE FLORENCE (AL062012) 20120807 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120807 1200 120808 0000 120808 1200 120809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 46.7W 18.4N 50.8W 20.0N 55.0W 21.8N 58.7W
BAMD 17.0N 46.7W 18.2N 49.5W 19.6N 52.1W 21.1N 54.2W
BAMM 17.0N 46.7W 17.9N 49.9W 19.2N 53.2W 20.7N 56.2W
LBAR 17.0N 46.7W 18.0N 50.1W 19.2N 53.3W 20.6N 56.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120809 1200 120810 1200 120811 1200 120812 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.6N 61.6W 27.1N 65.1W 29.7N 66.2W 31.6N 66.8W
BAMD 22.3N 55.5W 22.1N 57.0W 20.2N 60.5W 18.7N 65.9W
BAMM 22.2N 58.7W 23.9N 61.8W 24.2N 65.5W 24.1N 69.9W
LBAR 21.7N 58.5W 22.8N 61.8W 23.1N 65.3W 21.8N 70.0W
SHIP 34KTS 33KTS 38KTS 46KTS
DSHP 34KTS 33KTS 38KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 46.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 42.4W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 39.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114477
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#206 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2012 1:07 pm

2 PM TWO.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF AGAIN BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7121
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Location: Martin County, Florida

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#207 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 07, 2012 1:25 pm

Image
12z BAMS for ex-Flo. Maybe Flo could become a homegrown comeback?
0 likes   
Resident of the Atlantic Basin's Hurricane Hit Capital!

User avatar
Extratropical94
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2839
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Norman, OK

#208 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 1:55 pm

18Z Best Track, pressure up one millibar (12Z had her at 1010)

AL, 06, 2012080718, , BEST, 0, 176N, 485W, 25, 1011, LO
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3288
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#209 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 2:15 pm

what i see nhc dont gave it a chance for comeback
0 likes   

JabNOLA
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 26
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 11:00 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#210 Postby JabNOLA » Tue Aug 07, 2012 2:51 pm

In 48 hours. I agree. They are 90% against it.

Sent from my XT910 using Tapatalk 2
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 14431
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#211 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 07, 2012 4:10 pm

0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114477
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#212 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2012 7:05 pm

8 PM TWO.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW
OF FLORENCE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3288
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

#213 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 8:54 pm

ex FLORENCE is done going run into shear in eastern carribbean
0 likes   

User avatar
weatherSnoop
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 699
Age: 55
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 10:06 pm
Location: Tampa, FL
Contact:

Re:

#214 Postby weatherSnoop » Tue Aug 07, 2012 9:15 pm

floridasun78 wrote:ex FLORENCE is done going run into shear in eastern carribbean

guess that is why convection is forming east of the center. First time we have seen that this season.
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3288
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#215 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:37 pm

look like still want fight Image
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9098
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#216 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:50 pm

whats its doing is carving up the SAL so 92L doesnt have some much to work with....
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3288
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#217 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:53 pm

ROCK wrote:whats its doing is carving up the SAL so 92L doesnt have some much to work with....

you think 92l dont have chance too
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9098
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#218 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:59 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
ROCK wrote:whats its doing is carving up the SAL so 92L doesnt have some much to work with....

you think 92l dont have chance too



see my post about 92L...and the intensity models...in that thread... :D
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9098
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#219 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 07, 2012 11:00 pm

she is fixing to run into a 50kt shear zone.....decapitation wont be long...IMO
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9408
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#220 Postby artist » Wed Aug 08, 2012 12:09 pm

Image
0 likes   


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests