EPAC: GILMA - Post-Tropical

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tolakram
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EPAC: GILMA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 05, 2012 1:53 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep922012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208051800
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2012, DB, O, 2012080512, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922012
EP, 92, 2012080512, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1045W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2012 1:59 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 5 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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#3 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 05, 2012 2:01 pm

Finally... Please don't poof.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#4 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 05, 2012 2:55 pm

I think this is it. From the GOES ftp site, raw image.

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#5 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 05, 2012 3:20 pm

The real question here is...will this really develop? Throughout late July, many disturbances popped up, only to dissipate days or even hours later without even grazing tropical depression status. Invest 90E is a great example; the NHC gave it a 90% chance of development within 48 hours, but it dissipated without doing so, for some unknown reason.

So, my answer is, yes I think this will develop, but it may not reach hurricane status due to cooler waters ahead.

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#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2012 3:44 pm

I hope it develops (unlike Ernesto and Florence) but giving they way this frustrating basin has been lately, it might not :cry: :grr: :( .
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#7 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:13 pm

Latest

Image
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#8 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:18 pm

Tolakram, you and your sexy picures.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#9 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:20 pm

:ggreen:
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Re:

#10 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:21 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Finally... Please don't poof.

Yeah, don't poof like Ernesto and Florence. It will probably, get up to 100% and then not form :P . Looks large.

Kingarabian wrote:Tolakram, you and your sexy picures.

I've never heard of the GOES ftp site available to the public. Is this new or something?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#11 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:29 pm

I found it via a search since my beloved java create-your-own loops are down. This server has everything ...

ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2012 8:54 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 5 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAVE BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#13 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 05, 2012 9:58 pm

As with the many failed invests before this one, 92E is losing a lot of its convection and the circulation seems exposed. However, this still shouldn't have a harsh effect on it, providing it makes an effort to keep going. :)

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:11 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:As with the many failed invests before this one, 92E is losing a lot of its convection and the circulation seems exposed. However, this still shouldn't have a harsh effect on it, providing it makes an effort to keep going. :)

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here we go again with the busts :(
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#15 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:06 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:As with the many failed invests before this one, 92E is losing a lot of its convection and the circulation seems exposed. However, this still shouldn't have a harsh effect on it, providing it makes an effort to keep going. :)

Yep, it looks like its already going downhill.
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#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:55 pm

Even worse now.
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#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:55 pm

At least, if it does not develop, it will only be a 50% busts, not a 90% bust.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#18 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 10:48 am

No offense, it's just that this area looks rather pathetic right now - convection disorganized, no obvious circulation, and hey, I would not be surprised at all if the NHC says that this low wouldn't develop. After more than three invests before that just diminished in succession, it looks like 92E is doing just that for some unknown reason.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#19 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 12:50 pm

ahhh back to the east pacific where many *fishes* like to play unlike the WPAC where we deal with many landfalling systems...

euro actually develops this into a small midget hurricane down the road...but rapidly weakens it afterwards...
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#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 06, 2012 1:33 pm

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 670 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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