EPAC: GILMA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#21 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 3:23 pm

It doesn't look so bad now.....hopefully it keeps going and becomes a TC. :D
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#22 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 06, 2012 6:51 pm

Up to 70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 6 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS ALSO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE LOW
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#23 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 6:53 pm

Everytime I try to post any discussion on any system, someone else ALWAYS is able to do it before I am able to. For over three hours today, this page was quiet, yet when I went to put the discussion on the page, it's already there. Really, :Chit:!
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#24 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:01 pm

Great! 70%. This one should at least develop into a depression. And please do NOT dissipate like 90E did just a couple weeks ago!

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#25 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:18 pm

Looks better than the other invest but still pretty bad IMO.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#26 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Aug 07, 2012 4:28 am

It is TD 7-E. Looks pretty good, too. Convection is directly over the center and banding is showing in multiple directions.

Image

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 14.3N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 14.9N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 15.7N 114.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 16.5N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 17.0N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 17.0N 120.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 17.0N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 17.0N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#27 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:39 am

The NHC made this into TD7-E but I think it still looks underdeveloped, the Invest that was suppose to become "Daniel" back in June or July looked much better organized than this thing. Now that its a TD, please don't weaken (I doubt it will) but become a hurricane to continue that streak.
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#28 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2012 9:01 am

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 070850
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072012
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 07 2012

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MEXICAN COAST
HAS CONTINUED TO GAIN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SOMEWHAT
SMALL...TAFB AND SAB WERE ABLE TO PROVIDE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0.
THE LOW IS THEREFORE BEING UPGRADED TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/10 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS
BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE
5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST
ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AND POTENTIALLY SLOW THE WESTWARD MOTION OF THE
CYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST INDICATES A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT DURING THE FIRST 2 DAYS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A DECELERATING
WESTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
HIGH GIVEN THE LESS-THAN-NORMAL SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE.

THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WATER OF ABOUT 29C AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
LIGHT SHEAR. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA IS MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD...WHICH IS ALLOWING THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE DEPRESSION TO EXPAND WESTWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE HIGHER END
OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE WILL BE
LOCATED IN A MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...AND THE
CIRCULATION COULD BECOME DECOUPLED WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
TUGGED BACK TO THE EAST. WEAKENING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED AT THE
LATTER STAGES OF THE FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 14.3N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 14.9N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 15.7N 114.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 16.5N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 17.0N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 17.0N 120.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 17.0N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 17.0N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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#29 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2012 9:51 am

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 071445
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072012
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 07 2012

FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E
HAS DEVELOPED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND
IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200
UTC WERE 30 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB. BASED ON THE INCREASED
ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM GILMA.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 295/10. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY
BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. IN THE
SHORT-TERM...THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CURRENT MOTION TO CONTINUE. IN
THE LONGER TERM...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LARGE AREA OF
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST
FROM 72-120 HR...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO OR ITS REMNANTS CROSSING MEXICO AND RE-DEVELOPING IN THE
PACIFIC. THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW GILMA TURNING EASTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO THIS DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE GFS AND NOGAPS SHOW A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN SHOWING A DECELERATING WESTWARD
MOTION FROM 72-120 HR. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH DURING THE
FIRST 48 HR...THEN DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT.

GILMA IS CURRENTLY OVER WATER OF ABOUT 29C AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...REACHING WATERS
OF 26C IN ABOUT 72 HR. AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF INCREASING
SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE STEADY
WEAKENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UP TO THE PEAK INTENSITY AT 72 HR...AND SHOWS A FASTER
WEAKENING RATE AFTER THAT TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 14.8N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 15.5N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 16.3N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 17.0N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 17.3N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 17.5N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 17.5N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 17.0N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: EPAC: GILMA - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2012 3:45 pm

WTPZ42 KNHC 072038
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072012
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 07 2012

GILMA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING MORE THAN HALFWAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM
TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO A POSSIBLY CONSERVATIVE 40 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS
GOOD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/10. GILMA IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD MOTION TO CONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LARGE AREA OF BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC...POSSIBLY IN
RESPONSE TO ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO OR ITS REMNANTS
CROSSING MEXICO AND RE-DEVELOPING IN THE PACIFIC. WHILE THE UKMET
STILL SHOWS GILMA TURNING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT...THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT GILMA WILL CONTINUE A SLOW WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK NOW CALLS FOR AN
ERRATIC WESTWARD DRIFT AFTER 72 HR AND IS NUDGED A LITTLE NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH DURING THE
FIRST 36 HR...THEN DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT.

GILMA IS CURRENTLY OVER WATER OF NEAR 29C AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...REACHING WATERS
OF 26C IN ROUGHLY 48 HR. AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF INCREASING
SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE STEADY
WEAKENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GILMA TO PEAK IN
36-48 HR...AND THEN AGAIN SHOWS A FASTER WEAKENING RATE AFTER THAT
TIME. IF THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT RATE CONTINUES...GILMA COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COOLER WATERS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 15.1N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 15.7N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 16.4N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 16.9N 118.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 17.2N 119.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 17.5N 121.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 18.0N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 18.0N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: EPAC: GILMA - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby EBrads146 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 3:51 pm

Image

I feel like this is developing really quickly. An eye feature has popped up in the last few frames.
(Everyone's focused on Ernie...)
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#32 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 3:54 pm

40 kt seems really conservative IMO.
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#33 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2012 4:17 pm

Gilma wants to organize fast.
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Re: EPAC: GILMA - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 07, 2012 4:20 pm

Visible Loop

Image
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#35 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Aug 07, 2012 4:24 pm

Dang. Tropical Depression to an eye-like feature in 12 hours. :eek:
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#36 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 6:35 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 AUG 2012 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 15:12:03 N Lon : 114:09:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 999.5mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.3 3.3

Center Temp : -64.8C Cloud Region Temp : -55.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 30km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.9 degrees
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#37 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 6:40 pm

I am watching this one closely for signs of any attempt at RI. It is small, and conditions are favorable.
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#38 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 8:00 pm

EP, 07, 2012080800, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1146W, 50, 998, TS,
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Re: EPAC: GILMA - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2012 9:53 pm

TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072012
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 07 2012

GILMA IS ON A STRENGTHENING TREND. THE STRUCTURE OF THE STORM
CONSISTS OF A LARGE CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 3.0 OR 45 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE NEAR 50
KT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES GIVEN THE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT OF ITS APPEARANCE IN
SATELLITE IMAGES.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS AS GILMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY WARM
WATER AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW WIND SHEAR. AFTER 36 HOURS...
GILMA WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C AND INTO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS. THESE UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD
INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS GILMA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 11 KT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THAT
TIME...GILMA IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...IN PART
ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE
ERNESTO...NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND
LIES CLOSE TO THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS...TV15.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 15.4N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 15.9N 116.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 16.5N 118.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 17.0N 119.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 17.5N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 18.2N 121.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 18.5N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 19.0N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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#40 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 08, 2012 12:08 am

Watch this become a Cat 3.
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