EPAC: GILMA - Post-Tropical

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#41 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 08, 2012 6:34 am

Gilma wrapping up very nicely at the moment, I suspect it'll be a hurricane quicker than the NHC are currently expecting.
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Re: EPAC: GILMA - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 08, 2012 6:39 am

latest rbtop loop

Image
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#43 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 08, 2012 6:42 am

Really good loop, you can see Gilma still plusing somewhat as it moves NW but the presentation looks very good for now.
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#44 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 08, 2012 7:56 am

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 080849
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072012
200 AM PDT WED AUG 08 2012

A 0512Z METOP-A AMSU OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE INNER CORE CONVECTION
OF GLIMA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A PARTIALLY
CLOSED EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND A WELL-DEVELOPED SPIRAL BAND TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPROVED MICROWAVE PRESENTATION SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 60 KT. THE WATER IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS
LOW...THEREFORE...GILMA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LATER ON...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 26C AND INTO A
MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH AGREES WITH A CONSENSUS OF
THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11 KT. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING IN
THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP GILMA ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD
SPEED...DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW INTERACTION WITH A LARGE AREA OF BROAD LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ERNESTO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC AROUND DAY 3. THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY OR STALL...AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE 96 AND 120 HOUR FORECAST POINTS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCE AND HFIP TV15 CONCENSUS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 15.6N 116.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 16.2N 117.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 16.8N 118.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 17.4N 119.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 17.9N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 18.7N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 19.5N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 20.0N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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#45 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 08, 2012 7:57 am

This could become a hurricane at any time.
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#46 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Aug 08, 2012 9:39 am

If the forecasters at the NHC follow the 12Z BT update, Gilma won't be a hurricane for at least another 6 hours.

EP, 07, 2012080812, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1166W, 60, 989, TS
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#47 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 08, 2012 9:40 am

Its wrapping up real nicely, I'd say a hurricane before the day is out.
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#48 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 08, 2012 11:07 am

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 081451
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072012
800 AM PDT WED AUG 08 2012

FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GILMA HAS A WELL-DEVELOPED
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WITH OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS PRESENT IN ALL
QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 60 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW
IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/11 KT. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED
BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP GILMA ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT A DECREASING
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INTERACTION WITH A LARGE AREA OF BROAD LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF
ATLANTIC HURRICANE ERNESTO...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC IN 60-72 HR. THE GUIDANCE BECOMES VERY DIVERGENT BY 120
HR...WITH THE ECMWF AS FAR WEST AS 126W...THE UKMET AS FAR EAST AS
116W...AND THE OTHER DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SCATTERED BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING THIS TIME CALLS FOR A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE
NEW TRACK LYING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

GILMA IS CURRENTLY NEAR SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 28C...AND
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER COOLER WATERS. FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN FOR
ANOTHER 12-24 HR. AFTER THAT...THE LOWER SSTS SHOULD CAUSE A
STEADY WEAKENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GILMA TO BE
A HURRICANE FROM 12-36 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY 96 HR. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW BY 120 HR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 16.0N 117.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.5N 118.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 17.1N 119.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 17.6N 120.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 18.2N 120.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 19.5N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 20.5N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#49 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Aug 08, 2012 2:10 pm

18Z, still not a cane according to BT;

EP, 07, 2012080818, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1174W, 60, 989, TS
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Re: EPAC: GILMA - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Aug 08, 2012 2:28 pm

How dreadfully sad...so close to hurricane strength. The only hope left for Gilma peaking as a hurricane is the post-tropical re-analysis.
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Re: EPAC: GILMA - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 08, 2012 3:36 pm

TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072012
200 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2012

GILMA HAS BEEN ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...SHOWING MIXED SIGNALS ABOUT ITS INTENSITY. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB.
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN
AND CIRA AT COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY HAVE BEEN 57-63 KT.
ALSO...EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED AT BEST A PARTIAL EYEWALL
UNDER THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WHILE LATER VISIBLE IMAGES HAVE
HINTED AT EYE FORMATION. GIVEN THE AMBIGUITIES...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 60 KT...JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.
WHILE THE OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...A
BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS APPROACHING THE STORM FROM THE NORTHEAST
SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS OCCURRING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/9 KT. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED
BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP GILMA ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT A DECREASING
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF BROAD LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF ATLANTIC
HURRICANE ERNESTO...FORMING TO THE EAST OF GILMA. THE LATEST
DYNAMICAL MODEL RUNS SHOW THIS FEATURE HAVING LESS OF AN IMPACT ON
GILMA THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND AS A RESULT THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN
BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL.

GILMA IS NOW OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 27C...AND
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR GILMA TO BECOME A HURRICANE.
STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 24 HR...WITH THE CYCLONE
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY 96 HR AND TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW BY 120 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...
BUT A LITTLE ABOVE...THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 16.1N 117.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.5N 118.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 17.2N 119.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 17.8N 120.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 18.4N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 19.5N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 20.0N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 20.5N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: EPAC: GILMA - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 08, 2012 3:37 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:How dreadfully sad...so close to hurricane strength. The only hope left for Gilma peaking as a hurricane is the post-tropical re-analysis.


I don't see why it cant do it later today?
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Re: EPAC: GILMA - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Aug 08, 2012 4:15 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:How dreadfully sad...so close to hurricane strength. The only hope left for Gilma peaking as a hurricane is the post-tropical re-analysis.


I don't see why it cant do it later today?


This was before the 2 PM PDT update today. Yes, it may become a hurricane, but it's unlikely to peak above 75 mph.

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Re: EPAC: GILMA - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Aug 08, 2012 6:18 pm

It still doesn't have that hurricane-like structure. Impressive and well-organized but lacking a visible eyewall. Gilma only has a few hours left to intensify into a hurricane before crossing the 26°C isotherm. That will be sad if she doesn't pass 73 mph, but look at it this way, she was only expected to peak below 55 mph and she made it to 70 mph - so give her a round of applause!

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Re: EPAC: GILMA - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 08, 2012 6:57 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:It still doesn't have that hurricane-like structure. Impressive and well-organized but lacking a visible eyewall. Gilma only has a few hours left to intensify into a hurricane before crossing the 26°C isotherm. That will be sad if she doesn't pass 73 mph, but look at it this way, she was only expected to peak below 55 mph and she made it to 70 mph - so give her a round of applause!

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Storm can still intensity over 26C waters. Ask Hurricane Daniel.
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Re: EPAC: GILMA - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Aug 08, 2012 7:02 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:It still doesn't have that hurricane-like structure. Impressive and well-organized but lacking a visible eyewall. Gilma only has a few hours left to intensify into a hurricane before crossing the 26°C isotherm. That will be sad if she doesn't pass 73 mph, but look at it this way, she was only expected to peak below 55 mph and she made it to 70 mph - so give her a round of applause!

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Storm can still intensity over 26C waters. Ask Hurricane Daniel.


Oh yes, I forgot. Daniel was a real competitor though. :)
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Re: EPAC: GILMA - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby Florida1118 » Wed Aug 08, 2012 7:33 pm

BEST TRACK: EP07, 160N 1181W, 65kts, 987mb, HU GILMA

Is now Hurricane Gilma per Best Track.
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Re: EPAC: GILMA - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Aug 08, 2012 8:13 pm

GREAT! SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON! :D :D :D
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Re: EPAC: GILMA - Hurricane

#59 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 08, 2012 9:55 pm

WTPZ42 KNHC 090254
TCDEP2

HURRICANE GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072012
800 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2012

GILMA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.
THE COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED AND
THERE CONTINUES TO BE OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE IN VISIBLE AND
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC WERE
77 KT AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE UW-CIMSS ADT
VALUES ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER...NEAR 50 KT. AN AVERAGE OF THESE
ESTIMATES ARE THE BASIS FOR INCREASING GILMA TO A 65-KT HURRICANE.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TONIGHT AS IT
WILL REMAIN OVER WATER TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 26C AND IN A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. STEADY WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED BEYOND 12 HOURS AS GILMA MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS INSIST THAT GILMA WILL SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.
THIS CHANGE IN MOTION IS LIKELY DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST ALONG 130W LONGITUDE AND A
WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. A SLOW WESTWARD
MOTION IS SHOWN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN GILMA IS
EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 16.1N 118.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 16.6N 119.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 17.4N 120.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 18.0N 120.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 18.6N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 19.6N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 20.5N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 20.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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#60 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 08, 2012 11:08 pm

There we go, at last a cane!
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