EPAC: GILMA - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 15968
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC
Contact:

#61 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 09, 2012 1:46 am

Its soon to die the death that most storms in the EPac do, but at least Gilmamesh became a hurricane.
0 likes   
https://twitter.com/codyyeary
Graduate student at NC State studying tropical waves

Chickenzilla
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 110
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2011 7:31 am
Location: Croatia (Southeast Europe)

Re: EPAC: GILMA - Hurricane

#62 Postby Chickenzilla » Thu Aug 09, 2012 1:34 pm

Convection is weakening west of and over the LLCC. IMHO Gilma is probably a TS by now.
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 110101
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: GILMA - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 09, 2012 3:49 pm

Downgraded.

WTPZ42 KNHC 092038
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072012
200 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2012

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF GILMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEGRADE.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION NO LONGER
COMPLETELY SURROUNDS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS
ARE ALSO SLOWLY COMING DOWN AND SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 60 KT.
GILMA IS MOVING TOWARDS INCREASINGLY COLDER WATER AND APPEARS TO BE
INGESTING MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS WEST...SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED. THE GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A STEADY
DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY...AND GILMA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
BY 72 HOURS.

GILMA HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWED DOWN WITH A MOTION OF
310/5 KT. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE
BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO. THESE FEATURES SHOULD STEER GILMA GENERALLY NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT FOR THIS CYCLE...
AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS NUDGED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TV15.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 17.2N 119.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 17.7N 119.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 18.4N 119.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 19.2N 120.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 19.9N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 20.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 30839
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#64 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 09, 2012 5:31 pm

Looks like the steady weakening and death is now occuring with Gilma. Still a neat quick fire hurricane.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13387
Age: 54
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: EPAC: GILMA - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 10, 2012 11:20 am

Go go Gilma

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Extratropical94
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2737
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany

#66 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Aug 10, 2012 3:07 pm

18Z BT update, slowly weakening:

EP, 07, 2012081018, , BEST, 0, 190N, 1195W, 50, 998, TS
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10226
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#67 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 10, 2012 5:04 pm

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 102032
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072012
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THERE ARE STILL SOME PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 1800 UTC STILL SUPPORT AN
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BUT SINCE THEN...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH...AND WINDS ARE PROBABLY DOWN TO 50 KNOTS. GILMA
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND WEAKEN.
MOST LIKELY...GILMA WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR
SO.

GILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS
AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS GENERAL
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER
THAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND MOVE
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 19.2N 119.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 19.8N 119.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 20.5N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 21.0N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z 21.5N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1800Z 22.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6452
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario Canada

Re: EPAC: GILMA - Tropical Storm

#68 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Aug 10, 2012 5:59 pm

I saw Gilma doing the wrap-around days ago and I knew if it completed that, it would be a hurricane. If it failed, it would still intensity at a steady to quick rate. I guess it failed and became a hurricane at just shy of RI pace.

Why is it storms like this can get going in no time flat while stuff in the Atlantic (Caribbean) which is suppose to be more favorable than this area of the Epac, struggle? We got a hurricane here within 36 hours while it took Ernesto 6 days to do the same.
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9477
Age: 27
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#69 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Aug 10, 2012 6:57 pm

Well, for one, Ernesto had a very strong low level flow that was constanting trying to kill it to battle...where Gilma didn't.
0 likes   
Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 110101
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: GILMA - Tropical Depression

#70 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 11, 2012 10:12 am

Downgraded.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072012
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012

GILMA HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS...AND GILMA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 KNOTS. NOW
THAT GILMA HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED MORE TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 20.2N 120.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 20.7N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/1200Z 21.3N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/0000Z 21.5N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest