ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

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ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:03 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208062356
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2012, DB, O, 2012080700, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922012
AL, 92, 2012080700, , BEST, 0, 116N, 265W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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ATL: HELENE - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:05 pm

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 070003
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0003 UTC TUE AUG 7 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120807 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120807  0000   120807  1200   120808  0000   120808  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.6N  26.5W   12.0N  28.7W   12.6N  31.1W   12.9N  33.8W
BAMD    11.6N  26.5W   12.0N  29.4W   12.7N  32.1W   13.3N  34.6W
BAMM    11.6N  26.5W   12.3N  28.9W   13.2N  31.3W   13.6N  33.7W
LBAR    11.6N  26.5W   12.0N  29.1W   13.0N  32.1W   13.8N  35.0W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          33KTS          36KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          33KTS          36KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120809  0000   120810  0000   120811  0000   120812  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.8N  36.6W   11.4N  42.4W   10.4N  49.2W    9.9N  56.4W
BAMD    13.4N  36.9W   12.5N  41.3W   11.7N  45.5W   11.8N  50.0W
BAMM    13.5N  35.9W   12.0N  40.1W   10.5N  44.0W   10.0N  47.5W
LBAR    14.6N  37.6W   14.5N  42.6W   13.8N  47.4W   14.1N  50.0W
SHIP        38KTS          41KTS          46KTS          53KTS
DSHP        38KTS          41KTS          46KTS          53KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.6N LONCUR =  26.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  11.6N LONM12 =  24.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  11.6N LONM24 =  22.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L

#3 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:12 pm

92L on the far right of the screen

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg
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ATL: INVEST 92L

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:12 pm

To not be confused, this is not the wave GFS/ECMWF develop. That one is still inside Africa.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L

#5 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:13 pm

No model support on it yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L

#6 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:14 pm

Hurricane Alexis wrote:No model support on it yet.


I don't think Florence did either
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L

#7 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:33 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
Hurricane Alexis wrote:No model support on it yet.


I don't think Florence did either


True. This one came unexpected.
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#8 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:38 pm

So far,the SAL predominately has been too much out there in the Far Eastern Atlantic for these CV waves and systems to survive. The SAL simply this season has basically destroyed these systems. Florence never had a chance because of this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#9 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:51 pm

we have new invest i see let see if have better luck and FLORENCE
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#10 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:52 pm

let see it have better luck and Florence
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L

#11 Postby colbroe » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:54 pm

The models are hinting that this system will more than likely impact the Caribbean countries , very unlikely to be a fish moving due west .This weekend seems like it will be a repeat of last week when Ernesto passed Barbados.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L

#12 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:02 pm

I have been watching this one somewhat since splashdown.....trek westward for now....maybe low enough to stay out of the SAL...something to watch at least other than "E"...
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#13 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:03 pm

Looks like it'll have issues with the low level flow again. Look at the points between BAMM (medium strength storm) and BAMS (shallow storm).

BAMS point #5 is at 56 or 57W.
BAMM point #5 is at 47 or 48W.

That'll leave your convection screaming for mercy!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L

#14 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:15 pm

20% by the NHC is a good call for now. No telling if it survives the track across with all that stable air around...maybe not...man look at the early intensity graphic....BAM!!


[img]Image

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Last edited by ROCK on Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#15 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:20 pm

20%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 062340
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
IS LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#16 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:32 pm

Hey looks like NHC is a bit busy with Ernesto?! :roll: given this little mistake... see part underlined. Is it me or my untrained eyes?! This is my own opinion and no more :) "It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products". :oops: Maybe a correction will come soon, let's hope for that...


000
AXNT20 KNHC 062352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

A 1010 MB TROPICAL LOW IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
12N 24N. :cheesy: A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
19N19W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 25W-29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L

#17 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:33 pm

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/satellit ... r_loop.gif


DO NOT DIRECTLY EMBED IMAGES. Copy them to an image site or post the link. Thanks.
Last edited by tolakram on Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed direct embed of image
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#18 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:33 pm

Anyone noticed that too? :uarrow:
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#19 Postby WYNweather » Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:44 pm

:uarrow: how about the one east of that? Wonder what it is going to look like when it leaves the coast
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Re:

#20 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:46 pm

WYNweather wrote::uarrow: how about the one east of that? Wonder what it is going to look like when it leaves the coast

We have a thread at Talking Tropics forum where comments about that wave in particular are being posted.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113281&hilit=&p=2247189#p2247189
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