ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

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KWT
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Re:

#1141 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:38 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:it appears it has stalled just off shore. or slowly drifting with a northerly direction


If that is the case, then that rather does change things and makes this become Helene very likely IMO. Judging by recon, I'd say we have at least a TD.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#1142 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:39 pm

Unless this pulls somewhat Due North to NE it's going to run out of real estate. Just a matter of time IMO.
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#1143 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:39 pm

We have Helene, lowest pressure 1005mb, about 45 miles offshore, as I thought.
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#1144 Postby Dave » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:40 pm

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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#1145 Postby Florida1118 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:42 pm

Looks like we have Helene per Best Track.

BEST TRACK: AL07, 203N 959W, 35kts, 1005mb, TS SEVEN
Last edited by Florida1118 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1146 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:43 pm

Right on the eastern edge of the convection from the looks of things, almost certainly a TS IMO judging by the recon reports.

Makes the CMC solution a little bit more possible if that is where the center is.
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#1147 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:44 pm

So it remains 07L, but is the 8th named storm... Neat! A bit confusing since the LLC from the old TD7 didn't survive... but neat!
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#1148 Postby Dave » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:45 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 172041
AF303 0207A INVEST HDOB 19 20120817
203300 2024N 09602W 9775 00272 0084 +220 +220 241045 048 036 002 01
203330 2023N 09601W 9812 00243 0088 +220 +220 240045 046 036 001 01
203400 2022N 09600W 9806 00250 0091 +220 +220 240043 045 034 001 05
203430 2022N 09558W 9806 00253 0094 +220 +220 234041 044 032 001 01
203500 2021N 09556W 9803 00257 0096 +230 +225 234040 041 033 001 03
203530 2021N 09555W 9802 00260 0098 +231 +223 230035 040 032 000 00
203600 2021N 09553W 9764 00297 0101 +230 +216 227034 034 028 001 00
203630 2021N 09551W 9775 00290 0103 +231 +219 226032 033 026 001 00
203700 2021N 09549W 9770 00294 0104 +230 +219 225031 033 028 000 00
203730 2021N 09547W 9769 00296 0105 +230 +218 226031 032 028 000 00
203800 2021N 09545W 9772 00295 0106 +230 +222 224031 032 027 001 00
203830 2020N 09544W 9769 00299 0107 +230 +224 226030 031 027 001 00
203900 2020N 09542W 9771 00297 0108 +230 +224 227029 031 025 001 00
203930 2020N 09540W 9766 00301 0109 +230 +223 224028 029 025 000 00
204000 2020N 09538W 9773 00297 0109 +230 +221 225027 028 025 001 00
204030 2020N 09536W 9772 00298 0109 +232 +219 225026 027 022 002 00
204100 2020N 09535W 9772 00298 0110 +231 +221 224025 026 019 001 00
204130 2020N 09533W 9771 00300 0111 +234 +217 224025 026 022 000 00
204200 2020N 09531W 9770 00301 0111 +231 +218 225025 025 020 000 00
204230 2020N 09529W 9772 00299 0111 +233 +220 225025 026 020 001 00
$$
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#1149 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:47 pm

Plenty of room at 95.9W for further development if it does move NW/NNW from here, if it already is moving NNW then its got at least 24hrs over water still...
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#1150 Postby stormhunter7 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:48 pm

based on recon at 800ft... looks like we have TS Helene! Got some strong west winds and a very small center. Center is off the coast about 40-50 miles
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#1151 Postby Dave » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:50 pm

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#1152 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:51 pm

What is going to be interesting is the next pass through the center by recon, that'll give at least a good hint as to the motion at the moment, if there is any major movement.

Tightening up nicely at the moment, despite convection being mainly confined to the west side.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#1153 Postby stormhunter7 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:52 pm

Center appears to be less than 10 miles wide... very small center. Easier to spin up!
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#1154 Postby Dave » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:54 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 172051
AF303 0207A INVEST HDOB 20 20120817
204300 2020N 09527W 9772 00300 0111 +235 +218 228025 026 022 000 00
204330 2020N 09526W 9769 00302 0111 +235 +217 230025 026 021 000 00
204400 2020N 09524W 9773 00298 0111 +235 +217 232024 026 021 000 00
204430 2020N 09522W 9776 00295 0111 +236 +216 232024 025 020 001 03
204500 2021N 09521W 9772 00298 0111 +237 +213 230021 024 /// /// 03
204530 2022N 09522W 9761 00310 0113 +235 +216 231018 019 016 000 00
204600 2024N 09523W 9774 00300 0114 +235 +216 227016 017 016 000 00
204630 2025N 09525W 9774 00298 0113 +235 +218 224016 017 016 000 00
204700 2026N 09526W 9773 00301 0113 +235 +217 220016 017 014 001 00
204730 2027N 09527W 9773 00300 0113 +235 +214 216017 018 017 000 00
204800 2029N 09528W 9771 00302 0112 +235 +217 210017 018 016 000 00
204830 2030N 09530W 9774 00299 0112 +234 +218 205018 018 016 000 00
204900 2031N 09531W 9773 00299 0112 +233 +220 205018 019 017 001 03
204930 2032N 09532W 9774 00297 0111 +235 +219 206017 018 016 001 00
205000 2033N 09534W 9773 00297 0110 +235 +219 201017 018 019 000 00
205030 2034N 09536W 9773 00297 0110 +234 +223 199018 019 018 001 00
205100 2035N 09537W 9778 00290 0107 +235 +225 197019 019 018 000 00
205130 2036N 09539W 9769 00297 0106 +233 +224 195021 021 021 001 00
205200 2036N 09540W 9773 00294 0106 +230 +228 199020 021 021 001 00
205230 2037N 09541W 9770 00296 0105 +231 +224 196020 021 020 002 00
$$
;
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Re:

#1155 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:55 pm

KWT wrote:What is going to be interesting is the next pass through the center by recon, that'll give at least a good hint as to the motion at the moment, if there is any major movement.

Tightening up nicely at the moment, despite convection being mainly confined to the west side.


I think it has been crawling NNW all afternoon, it definitely is putting on the breaks. Earlier this morning I had estimated the center to be at 96W, so it has not moved much westward during the day.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#1156 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:59 pm

I think we're going to have an 5pm advisory package out, but late

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#1157 Postby txwxpirate » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:01 pm

Crown Weather Services:


It looks like we have Tropical Storm Helene in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico near 20.3 North, 95.9 West. I expect advisories to be issued within the next 30-45 minutes. Details forthcoming
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#1158 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:03 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:I think we're going to have an 5pm advisory package out, but late

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Or a special advisory.
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#1159 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:03 pm

This system has got a very tight windfield, very small system indeed from the looks of things, as they often are in this part of the basin. Could pull a surprise if the convection was to ever get pulled over the center.
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#1160 Postby Dave » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:04 pm

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