ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

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#1161 Postby Dave » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:05 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 172101
AF303 0207A INVEST HDOB 21 20120817
205300 2038N 09543W 9771 00292 0104 +230 +224 189019 020 018 001 00
205330 2039N 09544W 9767 00296 0103 +230 +226 185019 020 021 000 00
205400 2039N 09546W 9771 00292 0102 +230 +225 181020 021 021 000 00
205430 2039N 09548W 9772 00290 0100 +231 +226 180021 021 021 000 00
205500 2040N 09549W 9769 00290 0099 +230 +230 175021 022 021 000 01
205530 2040N 09551W 9772 00287 0097 +230 +230 176021 022 019 000 01
205600 2040N 09553W 9773 00283 0094 +230 +230 178024 025 021 001 01
205630 2040N 09554W 9767 00287 0091 +230 +230 171024 025 023 001 01
205700 2039N 09556W 9771 00282 0088 +230 +230 165024 024 023 000 01
205730 2039N 09557W 9771 00276 0083 +236 +235 159024 025 023 000 00
205800 2039N 09559W 9770 00274 0079 +241 +237 145020 022 022 001 00
205830 2039N 09601W 9770 00270 0073 +247 +237 123021 021 022 001 00
205900 2038N 09603W 9772 00265 0069 +254 +234 099021 021 022 000 03
205930 2037N 09604W 9768 00264 0064 +256 +232 097020 021 014 002 00
210000 2036N 09604W 9776 00250 0057 +255 +241 122017 019 019 001 00
210030 2034N 09604W 9771 00248 0049 +252 +244 148014 015 017 001 00
210100 2033N 09604W 9768 00247 0044 +258 +238 187013 014 019 000 00
210130 2032N 09604W 9771 00248 0049 +256 +243 247018 024 021 000 00
210200 2030N 09604W 9765 00260 0057 +249 +243 269029 031 028 001 00
210230 2028N 09604W 9767 00268 0069 +240 +240 265037 039 033 003 01
$$
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Someone take over please....
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#1162 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:08 pm

im thinking 6pm-is special advisory, theyre still sampling the windfield right now it looks like, plus they have to get the forecasts together and coordinate with Mexico about watches/warnings.
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Re:

#1163 Postby Zeno8 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:08 pm

KWT wrote:This system has got a very tight windfield, very small system indeed from the looks of things, as they often are in this part of the basin. Could pull a surprise if the convection was to ever get pulled over the center.


yes possible cat 1
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Re:

#1164 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:13 pm

txwxpirate wrote:Crown Weather Services:


It looks like we have Tropical Storm Helene in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico near 20.3 North, 95.9 West. I expect advisories to be issued within the next 30-45 minutes. Details forthcoming


I just want to point out that those coordinates were 18z Best Track location, where the recon found the LLC is near 20.5N & 96.1W
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#1165 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:14 pm

They are likely waiting for this next pass since they miss the center slightly.
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#1166 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:15 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 172111
AF303 0207A INVEST HDOB 22 20120817
210300 2027N 09604W 9763 00277 0076 +238 +235 258042 043 037 002 00
210330 2026N 09603W 9772 00275 0082 +233 +230 256041 042 036 003 00
210400 2024N 09603W 9773 00277 0087 +220 +220 254042 043 034 001 01
210430 2023N 09603W 9766 00287 0090 +229 +225 252039 041 031 002 03
210500 2022N 09601W 9771 00282 0092 +220 +220 245040 041 033 000 01
210530 2022N 09559W 9795 00264 0093 +229 +227 244040 041 033 001 00
210600 2022N 09557W 9810 00251 0095 +229 +229 239038 040 032 000 00
210630 2022N 09555W 9805 00255 0097 +230 +228 234035 037 031 001 00
210700 2022N 09553W 9807 00257 0098 +231 +226 233034 036 031 000 00
210730 2022N 09551W 9808 00256 0099 +234 +223 230033 034 028 002 00
210800 2022N 09549W 9804 00261 0100 +234 +224 229032 033 028 001 00
210830 2022N 09548W 9807 00259 0101 +234 +226 229031 032 026 000 00
210900 2022N 09546W 9806 00261 0102 +235 +223 227030 031 025 000 00
210930 2022N 09544W 9810 00257 0102 +235 +221 227029 030 024 001 00
211000 2022N 09542W 9808 00260 0103 +235 +225 227029 030 024 001 00
211030 2022N 09540W 9807 00261 0104 +235 +226 227028 029 025 000 00
211100 2022N 09538W 9809 00260 0104 +235 +225 225027 028 022 002 00
211130 2021N 09537W 9804 00265 0104 +235 +226 221026 028 021 002 00
211200 2021N 09535W 9807 00263 0105 +235 +221 222026 026 022 001 00
211230 2021N 09533W 9807 00263 0105 +235 +222 221024 026 019 000 03
$$
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#1167 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:18 pm

Recon just passed through the center again and found winds about 5kts less than the first pass in the same area. Data suggests a 35kt TS, though a tiny area of TS winds.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#1168 Postby HurrMark » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:23 pm

When was the last time a TS formed after a later-forming cyclone became a named storm (in this case, TD 7 gets the H name and TD 8 gets the G name). I would like to say it was fairly recently, but I can't seem to find the case...
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#1169 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:24 pm

wxman57 wrote:Recon just passed through the center again and found winds about 5kts less than the first pass in the same area. Data suggests a 35kt TS, though a tiny area of TS winds.

also appears to either stationary or drifting north
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Re: ATL: Helene - Advisories

#1170 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:25 pm

WTNT22 KNHC 172123
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM HELENE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
2130 UTC FRI AUG 17 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA TO LA CRUZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 96.1W AT 17/2130Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 96.1W AT 17/2130Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 95.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.1N 96.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.1N 98.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.9N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.5N 99.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 96.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

WTNT42 KNHC 172125
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM HELENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
430 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FOUND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND
PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 50 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
WINDS OF 38 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS NOW UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM HELENE WITH AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT...ALTHOUGH THESE
WINDS COULD BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY TOPOGRAPHY AND DECAYING
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE
CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT LACKLUSTER...WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED WEST OF THE CENTER LOCATION. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES
INLAND WITHIN 24 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEADY DECAY IS EXPECTED
TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY 48 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72
HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/06. HELENE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND INLAND OVER THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RETREATS NORTHWARD. THE NHC
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND TO THE
RIGHT OF THE ECMWF THROUGH DISSIPATION.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM HELENE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE EVEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2130Z 20.6N 96.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 21.1N 96.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 22.1N 98.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 19/0600Z 22.9N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 19/1800Z 23.5N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#1171 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:27 pm

HurrMark wrote:When was the last time a TS formed after a later-forming cyclone became a named storm (in this case, TD 7 gets the H name and TD 8 gets the G name). I would like to say it was fairly recently, but I can't seem to find the case...


last time was 2007 with TD8 becoming Ingrid a few days after TD9 became Humberto; before that was 1993 with 5 becoming Emily after 6 became Dennis, so not too common
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#1172 Postby lester » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:27 pm

...AIRCRAFT FINDS TROPICAL STORM HELENE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT...2130 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 96.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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#1173 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:29 pm

Could it be slowing to make a turn due north?
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#1174 Postby HurrMark » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:32 pm

Hammy wrote:
HurrMark wrote:When was the last time a TS formed after a later-forming cyclone became a named storm (in this case, TD 7 gets the H name and TD 8 gets the G name). I would like to say it was fairly recently, but I can't seem to find the case...


last time was 2007 with TD8 becoming Ingrid a few days after TD9 became Humberto; before that was 1993 with 5 becoming Emily after 6 became Dennis, so not too common


TD 8 and 9 actually formed at the exact same time in 2007...I would have thought 8 would have been Humberto since it was closer to land. I can't recall the rules...
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#1175 Postby lester » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:32 pm

Image
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#1176 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:35 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 172121
AF303 0207A INVEST HDOB 23 20120817
211300 2023N 09532W 9805 00263 0105 +235 +222 216021 023 /// /// 03
211330 2023N 09533W 9809 00261 0105 +236 +223 222019 020 018 001 00
211400 2024N 09535W 9807 00263 0104 +235 +224 222020 021 021 001 00
211430 2024N 09536W 9805 00263 0104 +235 +225 222021 021 022 000 00
211500 2024N 09538W 9806 00261 0103 +235 +225 221021 022 022 001 00
211530 2025N 09539W 9805 00261 0102 +235 +228 225022 023 023 000 00
211600 2025N 09541W 9808 00258 0101 +235 +224 224024 024 025 000 00
211630 2026N 09542W 9805 00259 0100 +235 +226 221023 024 024 001 00
211700 2026N 09544W 9810 00255 0099 +235 +224 219024 025 023 000 00
211730 2026N 09545W 9805 00258 0098 +235 +226 220025 026 024 001 00
211800 2027N 09547W 9809 00253 0097 +235 +225 222027 028 027 001 00
211830 2027N 09548W 9804 00256 0095 +233 +226 221028 029 028 001 00
211900 2028N 09550W 9809 00251 0094 +232 +230 225029 030 028 004 00
211930 2028N 09551W 9809 00250 0093 +230 +230 227031 032 031 000 01
212000 2028N 09553W 9809 00247 0090 +233 +230 228032 033 032 000 00
212030 2029N 09554W 9805 00250 0089 +232 +230 225032 034 032 000 00
212100 2029N 09555W 9805 00248 0087 +232 +231 228035 037 032 000 00
212130 2029N 09557W 9806 00245 0083 +230 +230 229038 039 034 001 01
212200 2030N 09558W 9811 00236 0078 +238 +236 232037 039 036 001 03
212230 2031N 09559W 9811 00232 0073 +240 +240 232034 039 033 000 00
$$
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#1177 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:35 pm

00
URNT15 KNHC 172131
AF303 0207A INVEST HDOB 24 20120817
212300 2032N 09601W 9801 00235 0066 +240 +240 228029 038 035 000 01
212330 2032N 09602W 9807 00225 0059 +255 +249 235021 023 021 001 00
212400 2033N 09603W 9807 00220 0053 +256 +246 246016 020 019 001 00
212430 2034N 09604W 9808 00214 0048 +255 +248 291010 014 013 000 00
212500 2035N 09605W 9806 00215 0049 +258 +247 349009 011 010 001 00
212530 2036N 09607W 9802 00227 0056 +254 +250 011017 020 018 002 03
212600 2037N 09608W 9802 00233 0065 +245 +244 002029 030 026 000 00
212630 2037N 09610W 9809 00233 0072 +243 +236 359027 030 025 001 00
212700 2037N 09611W 9805 00240 0078 +244 +229 358025 027 021 001 00
212730 2037N 09613W 9806 00245 0083 +242 +230 347021 024 018 001 00
212800 2036N 09614W 9805 00249 0086 +241 +232 344019 021 018 000 00
212830 2036N 09616W 9802 00254 0089 +241 +231 335019 020 017 000 00
212900 2036N 09618W 9806 00250 0090 +242 +232 330019 020 017 001 00
212930 2036N 09619W 9807 00251 0091 +241 +230 328019 020 017 001 00
213000 2036N 09621W 9810 00250 0093 +242 +226 324018 019 013 000 00
213030 2036N 09622W 9807 00254 0095 +240 +232 327017 017 015 000 00
213100 2036N 09624W 9805 00256 0097 +237 +233 324016 017 017 001 00
213130 2036N 09625W 9806 00257 0098 +236 +228 320018 019 017 001 00
213200 2036N 09627W 9809 00256 0099 +237 +225 313017 018 019 001 00
213230 2036N 09628W 9803 00261 0099 +232 +232 308018 018 021 002 00
$$
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#1178 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:42 pm

Well TD7 finally managed to become a TS, its taken a long time but its the little system that can!

Anyway the NHC is a good deal to the left of the CMC and the GFS solutions, with a track that keeps going to the NW. My gut feeling is that they are going to be a little bit too far west...but it sounds like they are a little unsure with this solution.
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#1179 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:46 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 172141
AF303 0207A INVEST HDOB 25 20120817
213300 2036N 09630W 9809 00257 0100 +233 +229 313017 018 020 002 00
213330 2036N 09632W 9805 00261 0101 +235 +224 317014 016 015 001 00
213400 2036N 09633W 9806 00261 0102 +233 +230 316015 016 016 002 00
213430 2036N 09635W 9808 00260 0104 +230 +230 302016 018 015 001 01
213500 2036N 09636W 9808 00260 0103 +230 +230 293017 019 021 002 01
213530 2036N 09638W 9808 00259 0103 +230 +230 302016 018 022 004 01
213600 2036N 09639W 9807 00260 0103 +230 +229 300016 017 013 004 00
213630 2036N 09641W 9805 00262 0104 +230 +229 302016 017 012 001 00
213700 2036N 09642W 9808 00260 0104 +230 +229 299015 016 005 003 00
213730 2036N 09644W 9805 00263 0104 +232 +226 299013 015 008 001 00
213800 2036N 09645W 9806 00264 0105 +232 +226 290013 014 007 003 00
213830 2036N 09647W 9806 00263 0105 +230 +228 288014 014 008 002 00
213900 2036N 09648W 9801 00268 0106 +230 +230 287013 014 010 004 01
213930 2036N 09650W 9822 00249 0106 +230 +230 284013 014 020 008 01
214000 2036N 09651W 9845 00227 0104 +230 +230 291015 016 012 002 01
214030 2036N 09653W 9840 00232 0104 +230 +230 297015 016 017 003 01
214100 2036N 09654W 9839 00232 0103 +233 +231 296015 016 011 004 00
214130 2036N 09656W 9774 00291 0104 +235 +219 305015 015 004 002 00
214200 2036N 09657W 9769 00296 0104 +235 +216 306014 014 005 001 03
214230 2035N 09659W 9766 00297 0103 +235 +217 298016 016 /// /// 03
$$
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#1180 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:49 pm

HurrMark wrote:
Hammy wrote:
HurrMark wrote:When was the last time a TS formed after a later-forming cyclone became a named storm (in this case, TD 7 gets the H name and TD 8 gets the G name). I would like to say it was fairly recently, but I can't seem to find the case...


last time was 2007 with TD8 becoming Ingrid a few days after TD9 became Humberto; before that was 1993 with 5 becoming Emily after 6 became Dennis, so not too common


TD 8 and 9 actually formed at the exact same time in 2007...I would have thought 8 would have been Humberto since it was closer to land. I can't recall the rules...


both were indeed classified at 11am the same day so I'm assuming the renumber was done with Ingrid's first as its listed as TD8

concerning Helene, given the model runs and the fact that it seems to be far stronger than it was initialized earlier, I'm wondering how the model next runs will play out, and if this will tend to have more support for a more northward track

-personal opinion and not official forecast-
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