ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

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#1221 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 7:46 am

12Z Best Track, downgraded:

AL, 07, 2012081812, , BEST, 0, 222N, 978W, 30, 1008, TD
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#1222 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:03 am

It appears the models showing a secondary low form offshore do to the constant convection there is looking like a possibility.
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Re:

#1223 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:28 am

Aric Dunn wrote:It appears the models showing a secondary low form offshore do to the constant convection there is looking like a possibility.



Helene is certainly not dead yet. Aric, as you pointed out, convection is re-firing offshore and I too am beginning to wonder if a new circulation will form off the coast. The system is basically drifting or barely moving currently.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Advisories

#1224 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:34 am

Downgraded.

WTNT32 KNHC 181432
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...HELENE MOVES INLAND JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO MEXICO...WEAKENS TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 98.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA TO LA CRUZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HELENE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HELENE WILL BE INLAND
OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND HELENE
COULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS NEAR
THE COAST OF NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS STATES
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.

RAINFALL...HELENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO FROM NORTHERN
VERACRUZ INTO SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS AND EASTERN SAN LUIS STATES...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

WTNT42 KNHC 181433
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

SATELLITE DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND MEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM
ALTAMIRA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HELENE IS LOCATED JUST INLAND
FROM THE COAST VERY NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. A NEW BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER...BUT THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION LIES IN BANDS TO THE EAST OVER THE WATER.
DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SCATTEROMETER
DATA...NO LONGER SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STATUS...AND HELENE IS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. WEAKENING SHOULD
CONTINUE AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER LAND...AND HELENE COULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE GFS MODEL SHOWS
HELENE RE-STRENGTHENING OVER WATER IN 2-3 DAYS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE OTHER MODELS AND INDICATES DISSIPATION BY 48
HOURS.

AFTER MOVING VERY LITTLE LAST EVENING...HELENE APPEARS TO HAVE
ACCELERATED OVERNIGHT AND HAS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 305/8 KT. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO SINCE IT WILL BE STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND TRAPPED AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 22.0N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 19/0000Z 22.6N 98.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 19/1200Z 23.0N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0000Z 23.5N 98.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Depression

#1225 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:36 am

I'm up in New York so it is the first time I got to the board.

I have a bucket of blue paint if someone wants it (lol)...
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Re:

#1226 Postby tailgater » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:37 am

Aric Dunn wrote:It appears the models showing a secondary low form offshore do to the constant convection there is looking like a possibility.


That scenario, could pose a much larger threat to the CONUS and that black gold.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Depression

#1227 Postby wkwally » Sat Aug 18, 2012 10:14 am

Sanibel wrote:I'm up in New York so it is the first time I got to the board.

I have a bucket of blue paint if someone wants it (lol)...

You forgot to call me Babe, LOL
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#1228 Postby wkwally » Sat Aug 18, 2012 10:19 am

from the looks of this we will at least get some good rain here
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Depression

#1229 Postby tailgater » Sat Aug 18, 2012 12:23 pm

I think I hear Bones clearing his throat. Her hours are Numbered IMHO.

Image
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Re: Re:

#1230 Postby Senobia » Sat Aug 18, 2012 12:53 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:It appears the models showing a secondary low form offshore do to the constant convection there is looking like a possibility.



Helene is certainly not dead yet. Aric, as you pointed out, convection is re-firing offshore and I too am beginning to wonder if a new circulation will form off the coast. The system is basically drifting or barely moving currently.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Sort of what the NHC 10a Discussion said, except it still calls for dissipation at 48hrs.


A NEW BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER...BUT THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION LIES IN BANDS TO THE EAST OVER THE WATER.
DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SCATTEROMETER
DATA...NO LONGER SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STATUS...AND HELENE IS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. WEAKENING SHOULD
CONTINUE AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER LAND...AND HELENE COULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE GFS MODEL SHOWS
HELENE RE-STRENGTHENING OVER WATER IN 2-3 DAYS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE OTHER MODELS AND INDICATES DISSIPATION BY 48
HOURS.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/181433.shtml?
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#1231 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Aug 18, 2012 2:58 pm

Excerpt from NHC per 2 p.m. TWD. They are discounting the GFS scenario of a secondary Low developing off shore or the remnant circulation bouncing back off shore.

THE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HELENE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND NW
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WEAKEN...AND INTERACT WITH SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTALES OF MEXICO TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS...LEADING TO AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.


So, barring any unforeseen circumstances, I guess the time has come upon us to bring out Doc "Bones" McCoy to make his famous proclaimation folks.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Advisories

#1232 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 18, 2012 3:38 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
400 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

HELENE IS MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND IT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
25 KT BASED ON A 1554 UTC ASCAT PASS...WHICH BARELY SHOWED 20-25 KT
OF WIND OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CIRCULATION APPEARS
TO BE LOSING SOME DEFINITION...AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR SOON IF
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS HELENE
BECOMING A REMNANT LOW AND DISSIPATING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HELENE HAS SLOWED DOWN NOW THAT IT IS OVER LAND...AND THE ESTIMATED
MOTION IS 295/4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO RUN INTO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOON...AND IT IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 22.6N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 19/0600Z 22.9N 99.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Depression

#1233 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 7:01 pm

Can't hold him back any more.

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

#1234 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:33 pm

Last advisory.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

HELENE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...AND IT HAS DEGENERATED INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND IS STILL
ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
HELENE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 22.8N 99.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 19/1200Z 23.0N 99.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Depression

#1235 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 19, 2012 2:50 am

wxman57 wrote:Can't hold him back any more.

Image



yes its dead again.....the 2nd time it died.....CMC thinks otherwise though....
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

#1236 Postby tailgater » Sun Aug 19, 2012 7:06 am

So tell me Rock,
There's a chance!


Our crazy Uncle says.

Image

IT'S ALIVE!!!!


Sorry couldn't help myself.
I know the people in the corn belt don't want to hear this but I'm tried of all this rain I can't cut my lawn,
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#1237 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:48 am

Convection picking back up right along the coast. This might not be quite dead yet, IMO!


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html
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#1238 Postby rainstorm » Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:06 pm

as far as the deep tropics go, this is the only favorable place, and it has increased quite a bit.
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#1239 Postby pledger28 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:07 pm

I see that and I agree with you.

This is not a forecast...just my opinion.
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#1240 Postby ninel conde » Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:14 pm

I would imagine it would still be Helene because its still in the same location. It looks like that front over texas might combine with it. Could that happen?
Last edited by ninel conde on Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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