ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:07 pm

System just off West Africa.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208100008
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2012, DB, O, 2012081000, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932012
AL, 93, 2012080818, , BEST, 0, 139N, 85W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012080900, , BEST, 0, 140N, 97W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012080906, , BEST, 0, 141N, 122W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012080912, , BEST, 0, 144N, 140W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012080918, , BEST, 0, 148N, 155W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012081000, , BEST, 0, 151N, 171W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,



Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113281&start=0
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#2 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:08 pm

Darn it Cycloneye, lol. We posted new threads at the same time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L

#3 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:08 pm

I deleted the other one.

Getting active out there.
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#4 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:11 pm

I'll say, 8 storms by mid August seems like a borderline hyperactive pace. Circulation is unbelievably vigorous. Maybe H storm will get pushed southwest as well?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L

#5 Postby Florida1118 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:14 pm

BEST TRACK: AL93, 151N 171W, 25kts, 1004mb, DB

Quite a low pressure. Only thing it really needs is a bit more convection.
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Re:

#6 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:15 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:I'll say, 8 storms by mid August seems like a borderline hyperactive pace. Circulation is unbelievably vigorous. Maybe H storm will get pushed southwest as well?

Why will it get push southwest? Explain, that could be interresting for everbody :) . Tkanks to you.
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ATL: GORDON - Models

#7 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:19 pm

First model plots at 00z

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 100017
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0017 UTC FRI AUG 10 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932012) 20120810 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120810  0000   120810  1200   120811  0000   120811  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.1N  17.1W   16.0N  20.4W   17.1N  23.9W   18.2N  27.6W
BAMD    15.1N  17.1W   16.3N  20.8W   17.7N  24.6W   19.1N  28.4W
BAMM    15.1N  17.1W   16.4N  20.9W   17.7N  24.9W   18.9N  29.1W
LBAR    15.1N  17.1W   16.3N  20.5W   18.1N  24.1W   19.9N  27.6W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          40KTS          46KTS
DSHP        25KTS          35KTS          42KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120812  0000   120813  0000   120814  0000   120815  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.3N  31.4W   21.4N  38.9W   23.5N  45.5W   25.8N  51.5W
BAMD    20.4N  32.3W   22.4N  39.3W   23.2N  45.7W   24.7N  51.1W
BAMM    20.0N  33.3W   21.3N  41.0W   21.6N  47.4W   22.3N  52.4W
LBAR    21.7N  31.0W   24.9N  36.2W   27.1N  38.0W   27.1N  37.0W
SHIP        50KTS          58KTS          67KTS          74KTS
DSHP        53KTS          61KTS          69KTS          77KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.1N LONCUR =  17.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  14.4N LONM12 =  14.0W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  14.0N LONM24 =   9.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L

#8 Postby AJC3 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:24 pm

Florida1118 wrote:BEST TRACK: AL93, 151N 171W, 25kts, 1004mb, DB

Quite a low pressure. Only thing it really needs is a bit more convection.



Indeed. Dakar bottomed out at 1005MB.
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#9 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:27 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 100002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. IT IS
CURRENTLY ALONG 16W AND IS ATTACHED TO A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW
NEAR 16N16W.
THE WAVE ALREADY HAS CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WHICH IS VERY CLEAR IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION
IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 16W-18W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:32 pm

Image
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rainstorm

#11 Postby rainstorm » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:34 pm

good news is the SAL should disperse and not be a big problem.
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#12 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:35 pm

:uarrow:
Hey Cycloneye, what's up with the UKMET model? :cheesy:
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#13 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:35 pm

Should develop, though the models seem to be very unsure to what degree it'll strengthen.

Heading out to the fishes...Bermuda probably will be far enough west judging by the current models but I think it'd be most unwise to rule out a possible risk to them down the line. Coming off at 15N and likely developing before 35W, its hard to go against the recurve solution.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L

#14 Postby alienstorm » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:36 pm

FISH STORM OUT TO SEA

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Last edited by Ivanhater on Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Add Disclaimer
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ATL: INVEST 93L - discuss

#15 Postby pgoss11 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:38 pm

Just curious how strong the Bermuda High will be in another week? Will 93L just be a fish or will is just go westbound and possibly affect Florida or the SE coast?
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Re:

#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:39 pm

Gustywind wrote::uarrow:
Hey Cycloneye, what's up with the UKMET model? :cheesy:


Yeah Gusty,tracks to the Butterfly island,but that run is not from 93L but from TD7.
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#17 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:39 pm

So, in your guyses opinion, between invest 93L and TD7, which do you think is currently most favorable for significant development and favorable conditions. Possible threat to US/islands? hmm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L

#18 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:40 pm

Are any of the models predicting 93L to become a major hurricane?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L

#19 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:43 pm

alienstorm wrote:FISH STORM OUT TO SEA

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1. Add a disclaimer when you make a forecast such as the one above
2. It may be a fish storm but we have standards on s2k. Have something to back up a bold forecast such as yours.
3. Count this as a verbal warning. Next will be an official one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L

#20 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:46 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Are any of the models predicting 93L to become a major hurricane?


You can check the model scenarios at the 93L models thread. So far they are up to a cat 1 hurricane.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113312&p=2249181#p2249181
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