ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

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Re:

#341 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 5:58 pm

greenkat wrote:Wow, yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if Portugal/UK (Gilbraltar) issued TS watch in the next 48 hours. :eek:


They would have to have high confidence it would remain a tropical cyclone all the way to Europe, which is EXTREMELY rare. I have NEVER heard of a tropical cyclone watch or warning having to be issued for the main part of Europe (mainland or British Isles).
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#342 Postby rainstorm » Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:02 pm

i think vince may have hit spain or portugal.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#343 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:07 pm

The eye is becoming better defined. To me, it looks a bit annular, noted by the large eye and lack of rainbands, particularly on the western side of the storm.

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#344 Postby Caribwxgirl » Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:16 pm

I just hope there is no really bad damage to anywhere from this
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#345 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:24 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:The eye is becoming better defined. To me, it looks a bit annular, noted by the large eye and lack of rainbands, particularly on the western side of the storm.

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Nice observation. It is fairly close to annular and has time to get that way before it hits more adverse conditions. Of course, the annular form is much more stable and tends to hold the strength up longer under deteriorating conditions. Let's hope that's not the case since the Azores are just ahead!

Really nice form now:

Image

Image
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#346 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:34 pm

Its does look more annular now then a few hours ago, eye becoming more round and defined with a burst of deeper convection to the north which is pretty rare for hurricanes at this latitude. Looks like its very close to 100 knots IMO... :eek:

If it becomes annular officially, could Gordon make a run at some more history by becoming the first annular hurricane to ever hit landmass while being? I always wanted to see radar imagery and ground observations of one (like its behavior during landfall).
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#347 Postby Caribwxgirl » Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:34 pm

I hope everyone in its path are well prepared!
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#348 Postby jinftl » Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:43 pm

Just 5 mph away from Cat 3 now~~~

HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
800 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2012

...GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.3N 35.2W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
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#349 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:43 pm

Advisory: up to 95 kt. VERY close to major status.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Advisories

#350 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:43 pm

HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
800 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2012

...GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.3N 35.2W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.2 WEST. GORDON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GORDON WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN AZORES ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY...BUT GORDON IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEAR THE EASTERN AZORES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AZORES BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

RAINFALL...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER THE AZORES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GORDON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZORES ON SUNDAY...CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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Re:

#351 Postby Caribwxgirl » Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:45 pm

:eek: oh dear hope the Azores will fair well
CrazyC83 wrote:Advisory: up to 95 kt. VERY close to major status.
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Re: Re:

#352 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:46 pm

Caribwxgirl wrote::eek: oh dear hope the Azores will fair well
CrazyC83 wrote:Advisory: up to 95 kt. VERY close to major status.


A Category 2 storm is still very dangerous...they can't underestimate these...
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Re:

#353 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:48 pm

Cyclenall wrote:Its does look more annular now then a few hours ago, eye becoming more round and defined with a burst of deeper convection to the north which is pretty rare for hurricanes at this latitude. Looks like its very close to 100 knots IMO... :eek:

If it becomes annular officially, could Gordon make a run at some more history by becoming the first annular hurricane to ever hit landmass while being? I always wanted to see radar imagery and ground observations of one (like its behavior during landfall).


They are much more common in the WESTPAC, Cyclenall. And many have hit land there. I can't think of one right off the bat, but here's the seminal paper on Annular hurricanes. It covers so much.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/resourc ... _Knaff.pdf
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#354 Postby Hammy » Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:48 pm

gotta wonder if the Azores are prepared to deal with this intensity of storm, it's not too common they get anything this strong there if at all
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#355 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:53 pm

jinftl wrote:Just 5 mph away from Cat 3 now~~~

HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
800 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2012

...GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.3N 35.2W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


You mean 1 mph away - it needs 111 mph for a Category 3. Gordon's at 110 mph, which means it's on the cusp of major hurricane strength. If this storm doesn't become a Category 3, I am pretty sure it will be upgraded in the post-tropical re-analysis, much like Hurricane Rina in 2011.

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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#356 Postby jinftl » Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:58 pm

Not impossible that the storm center stays south of the Azores if it doesn't begin to make the ene and ne turn by tomorrow. Most of the hurricane force winds are forecast to remain on the south side (right side since it is moving east) and the northern wind field doesn't extend quite as far out. Be hard to miss tropical storm conditions with gusts to hurricane force probably at this point for Santa Maria Island...but that would be much better than the eastern eyewall moving over.

Image
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#357 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 7:05 pm

jinftl wrote:Not impossible that the storm center stays south of the Azores if it doesn't begin to make the ene and ne turn by tomorrow. Most of the hurricane force winds are forecast to remain on the south side (right side since it is moving east) and the northern wind field doesn't extend quite as far out. Be hard to miss tropical storm conditions with gusts to hurricane force probably at this point for Santa Maria Island...but that would be much better than the eastern eyewall moving over.

Image


If it stays lower in latitude, it might survive longer too? If it stays on track, Madeira is eventually at significant risk.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#358 Postby jinftl » Sat Aug 18, 2012 7:07 pm

Keeping me honest! Good catch!
:oops:



jinftl wrote:Not impossible that the storm center stays south of the Azores if it doesn't begin to make the ene and ne turn by tomorrow. Most of the hurricane force winds are forecast to remain on the south side (right side since it is moving east) and the northern wind field doesn't extend quite as far out. Be hard to miss tropical storm conditions with gusts to hurricane force probably at this point for Santa Maria Island...but that would be much better than the eastern eyewall moving over.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#359 Postby Blinhart » Sat Aug 18, 2012 7:08 pm

So what is the possibility of this storm hitting Africa as a TC? Has that ever happened before?
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#360 Postby Weatherguy173 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 7:09 pm

Blinhart wrote:So what is the possibility of this storm hitting Africa as a TC? Has that ever happened before?


now wouldn't that be something...
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