ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: GORDON - Advisories

#441 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 2:48 am

Landfall:

HURRICANE GORDON TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
230 AM AST MON AUG 20 2012

...GORDON MAKES LANDFALL ON SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE EASTERN
AZORES...

AT AROUND 130 AM AST...0530 UTC...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON MADE LANDFALL
ON SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE EASTERN AZORES.


SUMMARY OF 0200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 25.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
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#442 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 3:00 am

Seems like that model run above wasn't too far off for 5 days out. Cat 1 into the Azores indeed...missed the peak by 19 knots, though.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#443 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:53 am

I don't think that Gordon comes as tropical storm over portugal, probably tropical depression .. but .. It never happened that a hurricane comes in very hot waters of Mediterranean Sea? but the Mediterranean Sea it to surrounded by very dry-warm air in the summer months.
TC Vince was too small to cross portugal..
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Advisories

#444 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 20, 2012 6:39 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
800 AM AST MON AUG 20 2012

...GORDON WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE
AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 23.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM ENE OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE EASTERN AZORES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.2 WEST. GORDON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GORDON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE EASTERN AZORES ISLANDS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE EAST OF THE AZORES LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS IN THE EASTERN AZORES GENERATED BY GORDON WILL BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm

#445 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 20, 2012 6:39 am

GORDON WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE
AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 23.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM ENE OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm

#446 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 20, 2012 7:24 am

latest blurry visible

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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm

#447 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:49 am

Gordon on the edge

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Re: ATL: GORDON - Advisories

#448 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:55 am

TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST MON AUG 20 2012

THE INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY IN THE AZORES PROVIDED A REPORT OF A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 980 MB ON SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE EASTERN
AZORES AS GORDON PASSED OVER THAT ISLAND THIS MORNING. A MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE WIND OF 53 KT WITH A GUST TO 70 KT WAS OBSERVED AT SANTA
MARIA AIRPORT. SINCE PASSING THE EASTERN AZORES...GORDON HAS
CONTINUED TO LOSE ORGANIZATION...AND THE CENTER IS INCREASINGLY
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 55 KT...
AND IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND A PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS FROM SHORTLY BEFORE 1200 UTC. GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR...COOL WATERS...AND
UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. GORDON IS FORECAST TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL WITHIN 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 060 DEGREES AT 14 KT.
GORDON IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN EASTWARD AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 38.3N 22.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 39.0N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 21/1200Z 39.2N 18.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0000Z 39.2N 17.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1200Z 39.0N 16.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm

#449 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:09 pm

Official data in the NHC discussion said the pressure bottomed out at 980mb on the island (so it likely made landfall or close to), and 10-min winds were 53 kt (suggests 58-59 kt 1-min winds). Hurricane winds might have existed over water though? 65 kt would be a good landfall estimate around 0700Z, with a 979mb pressure (accounting that it may not have been dead calm at that moment).
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Advisories

#450 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 20, 2012 3:39 pm

Last advisory.


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 PM AST MON AUG 20 2012

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOL WATERS HAVE CONTINUED TO TAKE A
TOLL ON GORDON. DEEP CONVECTION IS NEARLY GONE...AND THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS RESEMBLING THAT OF A FRONTAL CYCLONE...WITH THE LARGE
CLOUD SHIELD AND MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY BAROCLINIC REDEVELOPMENT. THE
POST-TROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SEVERAL HUNDRED N MI
WEST OF PORTUGAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 060
DEGREES AT 14 KT TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
TURN EASTWARD TONIGHT AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 39.2N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 21/0600Z 39.6N 18.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/1800Z 39.3N 17.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0600Z 38.7N 16.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

#451 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 20, 2012 3:41 pm

The final epilog. But it was a very interesting system that racked up some good ACE numbers.


BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 PM AST MON AUG 20 2012

...GORDON DONE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.2N 20.3W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ENE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE METEO FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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#452 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 6:13 pm

The big question marks are the peak intensity (I estimate 100 kt) and landfall intensity.
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#453 Postby greenkat » Mon Aug 20, 2012 6:43 pm

Anybody think Gordon may reform in the Mediterranean? I mean, given the fact that Gordon will most likely still hold on to wave status through his trip across the Iberian Peninsula, and given the sea surface temps... :eek:
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Re:

#454 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Aug 20, 2012 7:37 pm

greenkat wrote:Anybody think Gordon may reform in the Mediterranean? I mean, given the fact that Gordon will most likely still hold on to wave status through his trip across the Iberian Peninsula, and given the sea surface temps... :eek:


Nope.

Image

(It's around 40°N/20°W)
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Gord is Done

#455 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Aug 21, 2012 2:53 am

NHC wrote:...GORDON DONE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...

Did anyone else find this to be funny? :lol: I love the done part, I don't believe the NHC has used that one yet.
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#456 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 12:15 pm

One other thing: Portugal is not on the Region IV hurricane committee, so they don't have a say even if it was a really devastating storm.

http://www.wmo.int/pages/members/region4_en.html
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Re:

#457 Postby littlevince » Tue Aug 21, 2012 5:30 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:One other thing: Portugal is not on the Region IV hurricane committee, so they don't have a say even if it was a really devastating storm.

http://www.wmo.int/pages/members/region4_en.html


No. I can say there were thousands of people (firemens, civil protection, meteorologists, etc) who were on the ground to deal with the possible impacts of Gornon.
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