ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[Zanthe]

FISH STORM OUT TO SEA

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

What makes you say that? You seem really sure, that's why I wanna know ^_^

[KWT]

As for strength, I do personally think there is at least a chance this comes close to major status as it starts to eject northwards around say 50-60W. IMO it may just fall short but much depends on whether it survives its intial juant to the NW.

[Stephanie]

REMINDER - this thread is for model discussion ONLY. All other posts will be moved to the general discussion thread for this storm.

[ConvergenceZone]

With incredibly strong high pressure absolutely DOMINATING the Atlantic, I'd be shocked if this didn't continue westward....

[CrazyC83]

Instantly predicting a hurricane. This one means business.

[cycloneye]

This system will be a fun CV type one to track to see how it evolves in the open waters of the Atlantic.

Saved images. A note to the members. To preserve the images save them so we can come back and see how the system looked.

[CrazyC83]

I'm in total agreement with the thinking this one is headed westward, and with Ernesto, Florence and TD7/Gordon taking the SAL away, I see Helene becoming the first major hurricane of the season, and boldly thinking a Category 4 or 5. Next week this could be an extremely dangerous hurricane.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricaneman]

Im wondering if this will take a similar track to Isabel 2003 or Frances 2004, can't really discount that

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[KWT]

With incredibly strong high pressure absolutely DOMINATING the Atlantic, I'd be shocked if this didn't continue westward....

I'd agree, but if the models are right this one will be up at 20N in no time (before 30W possibly!), very hard to go across the whole Atlantic at that latitude so very early in the game

Besides, there is a weakness forecasted to develop around 50-55W. Had this one been at TD7's latitude, I think it'd have by-passed it, but that far north and probably strengthening its hard to see past a recurve into that weakness at this point like all the models are trying to do.

[BigB0882]

How many storms have formed this close to Africa (not that this has formed yet...) and made it all the way to the U.S.? I am curious. Certainly smells like a fish but a well timed strong high pressure can keep pushing it West. Glad to have stuff to track.

[pgoss11]

I'm in total agreement with the thinking this one is headed westward, and with Ernesto, Florence and TD7/Gordon taking the SAL away, I see Helene becoming the first major hurricane of the season, and boldly thinking a Category 4 or 5. Next week this could be an extremely dangerous hurricane.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well it just seems to me if 93L does develope into a major it has along way to cross the Atlantic, gaining latitude to some degree and more susceptible to any weaknesses. Unless that high stays strong in the Atlantic, I can't see it making all the way across.

Not an official forecast.

[KWT]

How many storms have formed this close to Africa (not that this has formed yet...) and made it all the way to the U.S.? I am curious. Certainly smells like a fish but a well timed strong high pressure can keep pushing it West. Glad to have stuff to track.

Someone said on another forum something like 5-6 have made it across having formed north of 15N and east of 35W...no certainty this one will form within those parameters, but if it does it seems unlikely it'll make it across, 6 systems out of hundreds isn't a big percentage risk.

Thinking about it, the CV islands may need to keep a close eye on it, has the potenial to be a TD/TS by the time it starts to leave this area.

[cycloneye]

How many storms have formed this close to Africa (not that this has formed yet...) and made it all the way to the U.S.? I am curious. Certainly smells like a fish but a well timed strong high pressure can keep pushing it West. Glad to have stuff to track.

Someone said on another forum something like 5-6 have made it across having formed north of 15N and east of 35W...no certainty this one will form within those parameters, but if it does it seems unlikely it'll make it across, 6 systems out of hundreds isn't a big percentage risk.

Thinking about it, the CV islands may need to keep a close eye on it, has the potenial to be a TD/TS by the time it starts to leave this area.

Is possible that they get a TS watch or warning.

[meriland23]

I am wondering how likely this is to turn into a fish or should we keep a eye on it in the US for it is a foreseeable possiblity that it may be a threat to the US

[pgoss11]

I am wondering how likely this is to turn into a fish or should we keep a eye on it in the US for it is a foreseeable possiblity that it may be a threat to the US

I'm no expert but it is way out in the Atlantic and we have a lot of time to watch this storm. I'm sure the models will be flip flopping several times before we know what's really going to happen

[OuterBanker]

Unofficial rule of thumb. North of 20 N before 60 W fish.

There are exceptions of course, but it's generally true.

[cycloneye]

Unofficial rule of thumb. North of 20 N before 60 W fish.

There are exceptions of course, but it's generally true.

Dont forget the small island of Bermuda in the middle of Atlantic.

[Gustywind]

:uarrow:
Hey Cycloneye, what's up with the UKMET model?

Yeah Gusty,tracks to the Butterfly island,but that run is not from 93L but from TD7.

ok strange coincidence but...surely a mistake lol

[pgoss11]

[quote="OuterBanker"]Unofficial rule of thumb. North of 20 N before 60 W fish.

There are exceptions of course, but it's generally true.[/quote

That is the Hebert Box...right?

[Hurricaneman]

This is probably going to be a humdinger of a hurricane, already has a super good structure

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products