ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[Franmed]

Hi There.

Everyone in the Azores is being informed about this storm. It´s not so unusual that big storms hit the islands. Rain seems to be the main concern because of local landslides.

You can check these webcams:

St Maria Island

http://www.climaat.angra.uac.pt/WebCams/index10.htm

S.Miguel Island

http://www.climaat.angra.uac.pt/WebCams/index8.htm
http://spotazores.com/?lang=en

[littlevince]

Now this Gordon has completed its copy of the last Gordon in 2006. Its insane how similar these two TC's are with the same name 6 years ago!! My last post stated how similar they were already and the two aspects I outlined were: CAT1 strength or over and an annular appearance, for Gordon to be nearly the same...fulfilled!!

They share the same intensity in the region. And in the Azores, the center will pass very close to the 2006 track. A bit surreal

Gordon 2006 - 38.1N/38.7W
90kt/970mb
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/al ... .034.shtml?

Gordon 2012 -34.1N/36.4W
90kt/969mb
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2032.shtml

Loop:

[tolakram]

Welcome, and thankyou Franmed!

[hurricanes1234]

105 MPH??? I CANNOT BELIEVE IT! And what's this about 102 knots and a pressure of 955.4 mbar? Does this mean we have a Category 3 hurricane?! Wow! I really need to eat my words about what I said in my earlier posts!!!

_____________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Unofficial, but impressive:

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2012 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 34:02:19 N Lon : 36:50:47 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 955.4mb/102.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km

Center Temp : +11.6C Cloud Region Temp : -59.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 95km
- Environmental MSLP : 1015mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 55.6 degrees

[jinftl]

It would be appear St Maria Island the southeastern most island (please correct me if i am wrong on the geography) will experience the worst conditions based on the current forecast track. Almost 100% chance of sustained tropical storm force winds...



and a smaller but somewhat increasing chance over time of sustained hurricane force winds depending on track. The wind field on the right side (in this case the south side) of the storm is bigger, so you definitely want the eye to pass to your south to lessen the impact some:

Hi There.

Everyone in the Azores is being informed about this storm. It´s not so unusual that big storms hit the islands. Rain seems to be the main concern because of local landslides.

You can check these webcams:

St Maria Island

http://www.climaat.angra.uac.pt/WebCams/index10.htm

S.Miguel Island

http://www.climaat.angra.uac.pt/WebCams/index8.htm
http://spotazores.com/?lang=en

[littlevince]

A personal weather station in Santa Maria:
http://www.praiaformosalive.com/estacao ... ormosa.htm

[CrazyC83]

Welcome Franmed and stay safe!

[CrazyC83]

105 MPH??? I CANNOT BELIEVE IT! And what's this about 102 knots and a pressure of 955.4 mbar? Does this mean we have a Category 3 hurricane?! Wow! I really need to eat my words about what I said in my earlier posts!!!

_____________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

No, that is unofficial but a decent estimate. 95 kt seems like my best guess.

[tolakram]

Latest visible loop. New burst just before sunset.

[tolakram]

RBTOP saved loop

[CrazyC83]

Latest visible loop. New burst just before sunset.

It's definitely trying to make a run at Cat 3!

[jinftl]

Usually once a storm makes that turn to the north and east into the shipping lanes, the interest in it fades completely...boy, this is not the case with Gordon. I hope the storm freaks (like me) are not fixating on just what may happen with 94L down the road...what we have happening right now with Gordon now is what i love about this board...no one else would find this nearly as interesting as the folks here do!!! thankful for that!!!

At the same time, people in the Azores and even Europe could see significant impacts from this storm and I can say to those posting from the Azores and Portugal that there are definitely people in the U.S. aware of what you may experience and are sending you thoughts and prayers.

105 MPH??? I CANNOT BELIEVE IT! And what's this about 102 knots and a pressure of 955.4 mbar? Does this mean we have a Category 3 hurricane?! Wow! I really need to eat my words about what I said in my earlier posts!!!

_____________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

No, that is unofficial but a decent estimate. 95 kt seems like my best guess.

[CrazyC83]

Usually once a storm makes that turn to the north and east into the shipping lanes, the interest in it fades completely...boy, this is not the case with Gordon. I hope the storm freaks (like me) are not fixating on just what may happen with 94L down the road...what we have happening right now with Gordon now is what i love about this board...no one else would find this nearly as interesting as the folks here do!!! thankful for that!!!

At the same time, people in the Azores and even Europe could see significant impacts from this storm and I can say to those posting from the Azores and Portugal that there are definitely people in the U.S. aware of what you may experience and are sending you thoughts and prayers.

This is indeed an interesting storm! I hope the US media can pick up on it somehow, since this is certainly no fish storm...there is definitely land in the way!

[hurricanes1234]

Latest visible loop. New burst just before sunset.

It's definitely trying to make a run at Cat 3!

That is definitely correct. Imagine one day can change the way people think about this season. Hurricane Gordon 2012 is really a family member of Hurricane Daniel 2012. And maybe Invest 94L may do something similar to those two hurricanes.

_____________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthDadeFish]

Check CIMSS ADT:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2012 Time : 214500 UTC
Lat : 34:10:15 N Lon : 35:56:46 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 953.2mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km

Center Temp : +14.2C Cloud Region Temp : -57.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

[tailgater]

Yeah in the last few images in the loop the eye tightens up and becomes better defined.

[CrazyC83]

If it keeps going due east, the Madeira Islands could come into play as well. Those islands are near 15W.

[Macrocane]

So, Gordon is now the strongest cyclone of the season and located so far north. I agree, it has been a very interesting cyclone and kind of unexpected, at least in terms of intensity.

[Caribwxgirl]

Wow this is some system. I didn't realize it would get this strong

[greenkat]

Wow, yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if Portugal/UK (Gilbraltar) issued TS watch in the next 48 hours.