ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

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Re: Re:

#381 Postby Florida1118 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:22 pm

mykka wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:With the full reds wrapping around, I would personally estimate 100 kt.


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How often does NHC update?

When a watch or warning is in place, every 3 hours. Full Advisories are every 6 hours at 5am, 11am, 5pm, and 11pm EDT.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#382 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:23 pm

greenkat wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Please excuse me for my inexperience...I only started tracking hurricanes on Thursday 1st June, 2011. Sometimes, when you post updates, I may ask several questions, because I am fairly new at tracking storms...and I don't know much about what the T numbers are...and all the other codes, etc. All I know about them is the wind speed, pressure and the intensity/track models. I may know a few other basics, but I know little about the in-depth descriptions of updates. Again...I do apologize if I ask too many questions.


No problem, man! I'd be happy to answer any questions you may have! :wink:


Hey, thanks! :)
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Re:

#383 Postby Zanthe » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:25 pm

greenkat wrote:I would like a poll... Which hurricane do you think has been the weirdest this season Chris, Helene, or Gordon. Just curious. My vote goes to Gordon.


I'd say Gordon, but Helene wasn't a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Advisories

#384 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:34 pm

HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2012

GORDON HAS AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH A DISTINCT WARM
EYE. A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 95 KT. THE HURRICANE IS CROSSING
THE 26C ISOTHERM AND SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE STRENGTH SOON. WEAKENING
SHOULD BE MORE RAPID BY LATE TOMORROW AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
COOL WATERS AND IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH EVERY MODEL
KEEPS GORDON AS A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES THE AZORES. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE LGEM MODEL.
A STRONG TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH GORDON IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD FACILITATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 72
HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/19...A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST WITHIN A DAY OR SO DUE TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS WELL-CLUSTERED WITH ALMOST
EVERY MODEL MOVING GORDON THROUGH THE EASTERN AZORES BETWEEN 24 AND
36 HOURS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...STAYING ON THE SPEEDY SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE
GORDON HAS BEEN A FAST MOVER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 34.5N 33.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 35.1N 30.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 36.3N 26.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 37.7N 23.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 38.9N 20.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 39.5N 17.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/0000Z 39.0N 15.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: Re:

#385 Postby greenkat » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:35 pm

Zanthe wrote:
greenkat wrote:I would like a poll... Which hurricane do you think has been the weirdest this season Chris, Helene, or Gordon. Just curious. My vote goes to Gordon.


I'd say Gordon, but Helene wasn't a hurricane.


Sorry, I meant TC.
hurricanes1234 wrote:
greenkat wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Please excuse me for my inexperience...I only started tracking hurricanes on Thursday 1st June, 2011. Sometimes, when you post updates, I may ask several questions, because I am fairly new at tracking storms...and I don't know much about what the T numbers are...and all the other codes, etc. All I know about them is the wind speed, pressure and the intensity/track models. I may know a few other basics, but I know little about the in-depth descriptions of updates. Again...I do apologize if I ask too many questions.


No problem, man! I'd be happy to answer any questions you may have! :wink:


Hey, thanks! :)


You're very welcome.
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Hope this helped ;)

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#386 Postby greenkat » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:38 pm

Anybody think that Gordon will finally get his name retired? I would say yes, if he significantly affects a continental landmass. (Europe/Africa).
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#387 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:41 pm

Gordon is not a Category 3, I don't know who got that information. It is NOT any different from 8:00 PM, nothing has changed. The pressure AND the wind speeds are the same as three hours ago, according to the NHC. There is no 104 knot wind speed, IT IS 95 KNOTS and the pressure is 965 mbar, NOT 953 mbar.

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Re:

#388 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:43 pm

greenkat wrote:Anybody think that Gordon will finally get his name retired? I would say yes, if he significantly affects a continental landmass. (Europe/Africa).


It seems possible, given the intensity and the land currently in its way.

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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#389 Postby Florida1118 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:43 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Gordon is not a Category 3, I don't know who got that information. It is NOT any different from 8:00 PM, nothing has changed. The pressure AND the wind speeds are the same as three hours ago, according to the NHC. There is no 104 knot wind speed, IT IS 95 KNOTS and the pressure is 965 mbar, NOT 953 mbar.

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Thats the ADT rating; it helps the NHC determine strength, calm down.
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Re:

#390 Postby FutureEM » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:46 pm

greenkat wrote:Anybody think that Gordon will finally get his name retired? I would say yes, if he significantly affects a continental landmass. (Europe/Africa).


Pure speculation but I doubt it, the Azores are sparsely populated and have decent infrastructure. Rains and mud/landslides are a primary concern due to the steep topography of the islands. So Gordon would likely have to do immense damage for the Portuguese government to request its retirement. Gordon is shallow for a hurricane of its strength meaning that the rain threat will be there, but probably not as significant as a say a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

And as of right now all reliable models show dissipation of Gordon before hitting Europe, so I doubt we will see much damage there. And Africa? Not sure how that would happen.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#391 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:47 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Gordon is not a Category 3, I don't know who got that information. It is NOT any different from 8:00 PM, nothing has changed. The pressure AND the wind speeds are the same as three hours ago, according to the NHC. There is no 104 knot wind speed, IT IS 95 KNOTS and the pressure is 965 mbar, NOT 953 mbar.

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One of the many estimates, this one from CIMSS, had the strength that high.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 953.1mb/104.6kt

And CIMSS ADT earlier was up to T5.5 (or about the same as above), but again, that is only one of many estimates the NHC uses to help figure out the intensities of hurricanes in the middle of the ocean. When the NHC averaged all the different estimates out, it still came out to about 95 knots, or no change.
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#392 Postby Hammy » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:59 pm

I'm personally of the full belief that Gordon was earlier (if not still) a major hurricane, and I expect it will probably be upgraded in the post-analysis at the end of the season.
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Re: Re:

#393 Postby greenkat » Sat Aug 18, 2012 10:01 pm

FutureEM wrote:
greenkat wrote:Anybody think that Gordon will finally get his name retired? I would say yes, if he significantly affects a continental landmass. (Europe/Africa).


Pure speculation but I doubt it, the Azores are sparsely populated and have decent infrastructure. Rains and mud/landslides are a primary concern due to the steep topography of the islands. So Gordon would likely have to do immense damage for the Portuguese government to request its retirement. Gordon is shallow for a hurricane of its strength meaning that the rain threat will be there, but probably not as significant as a say a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

And as of right now all reliable models show dissipation of Gordon before hitting Europe, so I doubt we will see much damage there. And Africa? Not sure how that would happen.


Just thinking that if Gordon takes an extreme southern track, Gilbraltar/Morocco/Spain may have problems.
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#394 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 1:53 am

Plenty of deep convection with Gordon...especially on the northern half. However, the eye is no longer circular, or clear...it is disappearing quickly. Looks like Gordon is finally starting to weaken, perhaps down to 90 knots now, just taking a guess.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#395 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Aug 19, 2012 2:12 am

Gordon will be the first hurricane to impact the Azores since.......Hurricane Gordon in 2006.

Image
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#396 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 3:21 am

Where's the best track update?
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#397 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sun Aug 19, 2012 3:33 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:Where's the best track update?


AL, 08, 2012081906, , BEST, 0, 347N, 326W, 90, 969, HU,
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#398 Postby littlevince » Sun Aug 19, 2012 3:36 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:Where's the best track update?


6z: 90k/965mb

AL, 08, 2012081906, , BEST, 0, 347N, 326W, 90, 969
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Image
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#399 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 3:54 am

Gordon has begun to weaken. Most likely it will be upgraded in the post-tropical re-analysis to a major hurricane - it resembled a Category 3 last night. I agree with the ADT, which showed that Gordon was around 120 mph, but apparently, the other data showed that it was weaker, yielding an average of 110 mph.

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#400 Postby AJC3 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 4:19 am

Looked at a half dozen first light images this morning and Gordon is REALLY starting to tilt with height. The top half of the circulation is getting sheared eastward away from the LLC, and you can see that LLC starting to emerge on the western side of the CDO that contain's the hurricane's top half. There's probably more than a full degree (~60NM) of eastward tilt with height already.

We're likely to witness a decapitation during the daylight hours today.
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