ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
yzerfan
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 576
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:09 pm
Location: Niceville, FL

#401 Postby yzerfan » Sun Aug 19, 2012 8:19 am

The closest Africa has gotten to getting hit by an Atlantic hurricane since anyone has been paying attention to that kind of thing is Morocco got the remnants of Delta in the wacky waning days of 2005 after that storm went extratropical just west of the Canary Islands:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL292005_Delta.pdf


ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON NOV 28 2005

...DELTA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL SOUTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...
...STILL A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM FOR THE CANARY AND MADEIRA
ISLANDS... AND NORTHWESTERN AFRICA...

STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
CANARY ISLAND WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT... WITH GALE
TO POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS REACHING THE THE COAST OF MOROCCO AND
NORTHERN MAURITANIA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
0 likes   

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

#402 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Aug 19, 2012 8:48 am

Is there a reason the warnings for the Azores still aren't showing up on advisory graphics?
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13540
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#403 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:02 am

Looking worse, but still bursting.

Image

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112122
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: GORDON - Advisories

#404 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:35 am

8 AM AST

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
800 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2012

...GORDON MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 30.7W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM WSW OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN AZORES

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.7 WEST. GORDON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GORDON WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN
AZORES EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST...BUT GORDON IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT
PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
EASTERN AZORES LATE TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

RAINFALL...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GORDON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZORES TODAY...CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112122
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: GORDON - Advisories

#405 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:36 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2012

...GORDON EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES AS A
HURRICANE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 29.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN AZORES

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.7 WEST. GORDON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF GORDON WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES
ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT
GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER
THE EASTERN AZORES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
EASTERN AZORES LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

RAINFALL...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GORDON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZORES TODAY...CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2012

THE EYE OF GORDON IS INTERMITTENTLY VISIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY...BUT HAS BEGUN TO SHRINK AND BECOME LESS DISTINCT OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. AN 1103 UTC SSMIS PASS FROM THE FNMOC TC WEBPAGE
SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL HAS OPENED UP ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE
CIRCULATION ALSO APPEARS TO BE TILTING EASTWARD WITH HEIGHT...
LIKELY DUE TO THE ALMOST 30 KT OF SHEAR ANALYZED OVER GORDON BY
UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 85 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST SINCE GORDON WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS WHILE THE
SHEAR REMAINS ABOVE 30 KT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR
40N/40W OVERTAKES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND IS BETWEEN
THE LATEST DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...BUT KEEPS GORDON AS A
HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE EASTERN AZORES TOMORROW. THE GFS
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF
GORDON DECOPULING BY 48 HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME
POST-TROPICAL AROUND THAT TIME. GORDON SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
BY 72 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY DAY 4.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/18. GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE. BEYOND THAT TIME A SLOWER EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
AFTER THE CIRCULATION DECOUPLES. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS. AT 48 AND 72 HOURS THE
NHC TRACK IS A BIT SLOWER...TRENDING TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 35.5N 29.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 36.5N 26.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 38.0N 23.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 39.2N 20.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 39.5N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/1200Z 39.5N 17.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2643
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#406 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 10:53 am

Gordon is beginning to affect the Azores. Hope they're safe.

______________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
Riptide
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 753
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Cape May, New Jersey
Contact:

Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#407 Postby Riptide » Sun Aug 19, 2012 10:58 am

It appears that the Azores are getting a taste of Irene, "get off the beach!".
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 26962
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#408 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:16 am

I can still see the eye...definitely not as strong as last night but still a dangerous hurricane...

Indeed, they need to "Get off the beach!!!"
0 likes   

User avatar
AJC3
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 2704
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Contact:

#409 Postby AJC3 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:13 pm

Gordon looks better than I thought it would at this time, given what I saw when I went to bed this morning. Looks like the LLC decided it didn't want to get left behind just yet. LOL
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 26962
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#410 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:58 pm

Down to Cat 1 now.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13540
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#411 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 19, 2012 1:40 pm

Latest saved visible loop

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1522
Age: 26
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#412 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Aug 19, 2012 2:27 pm

i hope the wpac will have an hyperactive forum.. just like your basin...
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2643
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#413 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 3:03 pm

Why did they drop the floater for Gordon?
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
AJC3
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 2704
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#414 Postby AJC3 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 3:24 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Why did they drop the floater for Gordon?


If they did, it's becuase it's already at the eastern edge of the GOES-E full disk range and it's about to run out of the area of coverage.

You'll have to go to EUMETSAT or some other page that shows METEOSAT imagery to see it.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112122
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: GORDON - Advisories

#415 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 19, 2012 3:36 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 PM AST SUN AUG 19 2012

...GORDON EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN AZORES MONDAY AS A
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 27.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN AZORES

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.5 WEST. GORDON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER OF GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
EASTERN AZORES ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BE A
HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN
AZORES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

RAINFALL...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GORDON WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 PM AST SUN AUG 19 2012

GORDON CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AS DEEP CONVECTION IS ERODING
SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME
ELONGATED. HOWEVER...THE EYE HAS STILL BEEN APPARENT ON RECENT
INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 75 KT BASED ON THE
LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. STEADY WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO COOL WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR...AND THE
NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. MODEL FIELDS AND FSU
PHASE SPACE DIGRAMS SUGGEST THAT GORDON WILL BE POST-TROPICAL BY 36
HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN SHEAR APART AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 96 HOURS...IF
NOT SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/18. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SCENARIO OF GORDON INTERACTING WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE A BIT MORE OF A POLEWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER 36
HOURS...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DECOUPLES...A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT
IS EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 36.1N 27.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 37.3N 24.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 38.8N 21.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 39.2N 19.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 21/1800Z 39.2N 18.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/1800Z 39.0N 17.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112122
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#416 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 19, 2012 3:38 pm

...GORDON EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN AZORES MONDAY AS A
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 27.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
somethingfunny
ChatStaff
ChatStaff
Posts: 3688
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
Location: Eastern Dallas County, TX

Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#417 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Aug 19, 2012 3:56 pm

tolakram wrote:Latest saved visible loop

Image


I just noticed that these loops outline every island except for the southeasternmost one, Santa Maria - the one that should take the hardest hit from Gordon.

Image
0 likes   
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be used as such. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.

Click here to join us in Storm2k.org's official (and operational!) chatroom!

Rules for the Storm2k.org chatroom

christchurchguy
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 41
Joined: Sat Sep 19, 2009 10:31 am

#418 Postby christchurchguy » Sun Aug 19, 2012 4:22 pm

whats the url for that goes floater?
0 likes   

User avatar
littlevince
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 768
Joined: Fri Oct 21, 2005 10:45 am
Location: Portugal

Re:

#419 Postby littlevince » Sun Aug 19, 2012 4:28 pm

christchurchguy wrote:whats the url for that goes floater?


They Removed Gordon from the site one hour ago .... :roll:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html
0 likes   

User avatar
frederic79
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 271
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2004 8:48 pm
Location: Grand Bay, AL

Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#420 Postby frederic79 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 5:50 pm

This may already be posted but I noticed Hurricane Gorden (Cat 1) impacted the Azores 6 years ago (2006) causing minimal damage in September of that year. Kind of shows how far ahead we are on named storms also. :0)
0 likes   


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest