ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#421 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 19, 2012 6:27 pm

^^ it was, but worth posting again. :)

Latest loops

Image

Image

both from http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Advisories

#422 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 19, 2012 6:39 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
800 PM AST SUN AUG 19 2012

...GORDON NEARING THE EASTERN AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 26.5W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN AZORES

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.5 WEST. GORDON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
EASTERN AZORES ON MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES
NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN
AZORES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY.

RAINFALL...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GORDON WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#423 Postby littlevince » Sun Aug 19, 2012 6:48 pm

Image
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#424 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 7:20 pm

Pretty good flareup there in the last hour or so. That could be trouble if the eyewall hits Santa Maria...
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#425 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:11 pm

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... =ISPDIADE2

Station to watch, see if the center goes over it. The environmental pressure is quite high (~1016mb).
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#426 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:13 pm

AL, 08, 2012082000, , BEST, 0, 364N, 263W, 70, 980, HU,
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#427 Postby littlevince » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:42 pm

Strange things happens

Image
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Advisories

#428 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:43 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 19 2012

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AZORES
VERY SOON...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 25.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN AZORES

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.8 WEST. GORDON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GORDON WILL PASS
NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES IN A FEW HOURS...AND MOVE EAST OF
THOSE ISLANDS LATER ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT GORDON
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY UNTIL AFTER IT PASSES
THE AZORES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOW AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN AZORES...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AZORES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

RAINFALL...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GORDON WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 19 2012

THE EYE DISAPPEARED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SEVERAL HOURS AGO AND THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY RAGGED. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
OVER THE HURRICANE SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CLOUD MASS...BUT THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
STILL QUITE STRONG. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KT IS
BASED ON AN ASSUMED SLOW WEAKENING RATE AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO
STEADY WEAKENING. GORDON IS LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN 24-36 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE IN 72
HOURS OR LESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT...BUT IS IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE DIAGNOSTICS
FROM THAT MODEL SHOW GORDON LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON
MONDAY.

NOW THAT THE CENTER HAS MORE BECOME DIFFICULT TO FIND...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 070/17...OR PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER.
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A WESTERLY CURRENT TO
THE SOUTH OF A LARGE LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF GORDON IS LIKELY TO BE SHEARED AWAY BY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...GORDON OR ITS
POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE STEERED
MAINLY BY THE WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE A CONSIDERABLE
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT A BIT FASTER
THAN THE LATEST GFS TRACK.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE
TIMELY ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 36.7N 25.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 37.8N 23.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 38.8N 20.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 39.2N 19.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/0000Z 39.3N 18.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#429 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:43 pm

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AZORES
VERY SOON...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 25.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
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#430 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:49 pm

Landfall (or closest thing to) probably is about 2-3 hours away.
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#431 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 10:02 pm

Pressure is tumbling right now on Santa Maria, watching that station, about 1 mb every few minutes.
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#432 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 10:22 pm

METAR LPAZ 200300Z /////KT 3000 RA BKN004 BKN014 21/20 Q0999 RMK WND RWY18 11041G61KT

Santa Maria Island at 0300Z - winds gusting to about 70 mph. Pressure down to 998mb there as well now and falling rapidly.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#433 Postby littlevince » Sun Aug 19, 2012 10:24 pm

TV broadcast (in portuguese)
http://www.tvtuga.com/rtp-acores/
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane

#434 Postby Macrocane » Sun Aug 19, 2012 10:24 pm

Nice pictures of both Gordons, it seems like mother nature likes to repeat herself sometimes, it's like 2008 and 1996 Bertha's with similar tracks, intensities and even dates.
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Re:

#435 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:07 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:METAR LPAZ 200300Z /////KT 3000 RA BKN004 BKN014 21/20 Q0999 RMK WND RWY18 11041G61KT

Santa Maria Island at 0300Z - winds gusting to about 70 mph. Pressure down to 998mb there as well now and falling rapidly.

Anything new? I don't know where to find OCONUS METARS.
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Re: Re:

#436 Postby littlevince » Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:04 am

brunota2003 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:METAR LPAZ 200300Z /////KT 3000 RA BKN004 BKN014 21/20 Q0999 RMK WND RWY18 11041G61KT

Santa Maria Island at 0300Z - winds gusting to about 70 mph. Pressure down to 998mb there as well now and falling rapidly.

Anything new? I don't know where to find OCONUS METARS.


146 km/h gust in an official weather station from the Weather Service.
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#437 Postby Zanthe » Mon Aug 20, 2012 2:13 am

...GORDON MAKES LANDFALL ON SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE EASTERN
AZORES...
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Re: Re:

#438 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 2:35 am

littlevince wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:METAR LPAZ 200300Z /////KT 3000 RA BKN004 BKN014 21/20 Q0999 RMK WND RWY18 11041G61KT

Santa Maria Island at 0300Z - winds gusting to about 70 mph. Pressure down to 998mb there as well now and falling rapidly.

Anything new? I don't know where to find OCONUS METARS.


146 km/h gust in an official weather station from the Weather Service.

So a 91 mph gust...pretty good. Wonder if they recorded any sustained hurricane force winds.
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#439 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 2:38 am

From the 2 am advisory:

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND
OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 70 MPH...113 KM/H...WERE
REPORTED ON SANTA MARIA ISLAND.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Advisories

#440 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 2:47 am

2 am:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
200 AM AST MON AUG 20 2012

...HURRICANE GORDON MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN AZORES ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.3N 25.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM N OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE AZORES
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SE OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN AZORES

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.2 WEST. GORDON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GORDON IS EXPECTED
TO PASS BETWEEN SANTA MARIA ISLAND AND SAN MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE
EASTERN AZORES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MOVE EAST OF
THOSE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT GORDON
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY UNTIL AFTER IT PASSES
THE AZORES LATER THIS MORNING.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND
OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 70 MPH...113 KM/H...WERE
REPORTED ON SANTA MARIA ISLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AZORES ISLANDS....AND THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.

RAINFALL...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GORDON WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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