WPAC: KAI-TAK - Post-Tropical

[shyamvk]

Hi Guys - Great and informative site. I need some help and advise from anyone here.

I am due to fly to Hong Kong on Saturday morning 8:00 AM. Would this storm be at its peak then? I have an anxiety disorder about flying and more on Turbulence. Based on your answer, i would cancel the flight or reschedule.

Thank you for understanding.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hi Guys - Great and informative site. I need some help and advise from anyone here.

I am due to fly to Hong Kong on Saturday morning 8:00 AM. Would this storm be at its peak then? I have an anxiety disorder about flying and more on Turbulence. Based on your answer, i would cancel the flight or reschedule.

Thank you for understanding.

Welcome to the site! It's a little too early to tell but according to current forecast from JMA Kai-tak should be well inland by Saturday 8am local time, but there could be residual rains etc. A lot can change between now and then so keep an eye here for updates!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA or local government products.

[phwxenthusiast]

i dont know about you guys but it looks like the center is well inside the convection now.. latest fix from PGTW (3.5 DT by the way), MWI below, and a Baler radar fix from PAGASA all suggest that the center is within 150km east of Isabela and could very well make landfall in that area in the next 6 hours..

[dhoeze]

What happened to impressive dark center we have been seeing for the entire day?
Is it good news for Philippines gurus?

[img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

[Typhoon Hunter]

Wow I think this image shows nicely where the centre is right now, PAGASA also mentioned it's in their radar range! I think it's very likely going to make landfall on Luzon!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA or local government products.

[oaba09]

Wow I think this image shows nicely where the centre is right now, PAGASA also mentioned it's in their radar range! I think it's very likely going to make landfall on Luzon!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA or local government products.

It seems like pagasa got this one correctly....Wind has been picking up in the past couple of hours...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Sorry Pat, I posted same image as you lol, must have been typing our messages at the same time!! Looks a strong system to me!

[phwxenthusiast]

Sorry Pat, I posted same image as you lol, must have been typing our messages at the same time!! Looks a strong system to me!

haha, no problem.. yeah even JTWC's last DT was around 3.5.. it did get its act together really quickly; i did an update 4 hours ago and the center was still somewhat on the edge of the convection, now it seems like an eyewall is quickly forming haha.. oh WPAC!

[shyamvk]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

I am just attaching the latest tracker from wunderground updated couple of hours back and shows an inland landfall by saturday 800 am jst. From your experience, i do understand there will be variation and deviation but will there be a significant change from this?
Thanks

[euro6208]

up to 50 knots and about to make landfall...

WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 17.2N 123.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 123.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.9N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.0N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.3N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.7N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.3N 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.9N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 123.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND
151500Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

oh boy...

WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE BUILDING NORTHWARD OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, IN OLDER MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY, THE LLCC HAD BEGUN TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND APPEARS TO
PERSIST IN THE EIR AS WELL. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN PART DUE TO A
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL TO A MORE SYMMETRICALLY ORGANIZED
LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A CONSOLIDATION OF POSITION
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT 141129Z SSMIS
91 GHZ IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF TS 14W PERSISTS IN CREATING
15 TO 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE LLCC. THE VWS
IS PROVIDING AN AMPLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVING
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE INCREASING
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS OBSERVED IN EIR. TS 14W IS
BEING STEERED IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED FAR
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 14W IS FORECASTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE
RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OF THE LLCC, THIS FORECAST BRINGS THE
OVERALL TRACK SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
CONSENSUS, AS THE RECENT DIP WAS NOT PREVIOUSLY INDICATED WITHIN
MODEL GUIDANCE, THROUGH TAU 48. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LATITUDE
TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE STR OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS, BUT WILL NOT CREATE A FULL BREAK WITHIN THE STR. THIS
WEAKENING EXPLAINS THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING THE SHIFT IN THE TRACK
TO THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. BEYOND TAU 36, THE TROUGHS WILL TRACK
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ALLOWING THE STR TO BUILD BACK IN OVER EASTERN
CHINA. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 12 IS EXPECTED AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LUZON INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. DUE TO THE
COMPETING INFLUENCES OF VERY WARM ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND MODERATE VWS, ONCE TS
14W MOVES BACK OVER WATER, THE EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION RATE WILL
REMAIN SLOW. THE FORECASTED MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS AT TAU 48
DOES NOT REFLECT THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF ABOUT 70 TO 75
KNOTS AROUND TAU 60 SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL TO THE EAST OF
HONG KONG. A VERY WARM POOL OF SSTS ALONG THE COASTAL REGION ARE
EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSITY THE SYSTEM BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 60. THE
TIMING OF LANDFALL REMAINS BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 WITH FRICTIONAL
LAND INFLUENCES QUICKLY WEAKENING THE LLCC UPON LANDFALL.
C. AFTER TAU 72 TS 14W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF FRICTIONAL DRAG AND THE LOSS OF THE OCEAN HEATING LINK.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48,
WITH NGPS AND WBAR BEING THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS. ECMWF, GFS, AND GFDN
ARE THE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS, AND ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK BASED ON
ANALYSIS OF THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT AND NUMERICAL MODELS SHOWING A
SIMILAR PICTURE WITH ONLY SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE AMOUNT OF
WEAKENING DEPICTED FOR THE STR.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

in perfect agreement with JTWC...



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 AUG 2012 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 17:24:03 N Lon : 123:05:50 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 989.4mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.6 3.8

Center Temp : -81.9C Cloud Region Temp : -81.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 62km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.3 degrees

[dhoeze]

Sir phwxenthusiast and Sir Typhoon Hunter,

Any links to see the PAGASA radar data?
for a month i have been having problems accessing NOAH

Thanks in advance.

PAGASA update as of 5AM PHL time

SYNOPSIS: AT 4:00 AM TODAY, TROPICAL STORM “HELEN” WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 60
KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF TUGUEGARAO CITY (17.2°N 122.1°E) WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 KPH NEAR THE
CENTER AND GUSTINESS OF UP TO 100 KPH. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 17 KPH.
FORECAST: NORTHERN LUZON INCLUDING NORTHERN AURORA WILL EXPERIENCE STORMY WEATHER AND THE COASTAL WATERS
ALONG THESE AREAS WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. NUEVA ECIJA, PANGASINAN, TARLAC, LA UNION AND THE REST OF AURORA
WILL HAVE RAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS WHILE THE REST OF CENTRAL LUZON, SOUTHERN LUZON AND WESTERN VISAYAS WILL
EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT RAINS WHICH MAY TRIGGER FLASHFLOODS AND LANDSLIDES. MINDANAO AND THE REST OF
VISAYAS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTRY AND
ITS COASTAL WATERS WILL BE MODERATE TO ROUGH.

[img]

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[ManilaTC]

Noah is good on my end.

Alternate link: http://noah.pscigrid.gov.ph/
Or try.
http://www.climatex.ph/

Sir phwxenthusiast and Sir Typhoon Hunter,

Any links to see the PAGASA radar data?
for a month i have been having problems accessing NOAH

Thanks in advance.

PAGASA update as of 5AM PHL time

SYNOPSIS: AT 4:00 AM TODAY, TROPICAL STORM “HELEN” WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 60
KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF TUGUEGARAO CITY (17.2°N 122.1°E) WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 KPH NEAR THE
CENTER AND GUSTINESS OF UP TO 100 KPH. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 17 KPH.
FORECAST: NORTHERN LUZON INCLUDING NORTHERN AURORA WILL EXPERIENCE STORMY WEATHER AND THE COASTAL WATERS
ALONG THESE AREAS WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. NUEVA ECIJA, PANGASINAN, TARLAC, LA UNION AND THE REST OF AURORA
WILL HAVE RAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS WHILE THE REST OF CENTRAL LUZON, SOUTHERN LUZON AND WESTERN VISAYAS WILL
EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT RAINS WHICH MAY TRIGGER FLASHFLOODS AND LANDSLIDES. MINDANAO AND THE REST OF
VISAYAS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTRY AND
ITS COASTAL WATERS WILL BE MODERATE TO ROUGH.

[img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

[phwxenthusiast]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp201214_5day.html

I am just attaching the latest tracker from wunderground updated couple of hours back and shows an inland landfall by saturday 800 am jst. From your experience, i do understand there will be variation and deviation but will there be a significant change from this?
Thanks

well now that the storm has made landfall in Luzon--contrary to what the agencies were saying two days ago--the landfall point may have changed significantly... while i still don't think that you should cancel your flight, it may get really interesting in the next 24 to 48 hours because looking at the latest data, Kai-Tak may very well land closer to Hong Kong (by Friday night) than what we previously thought..

i'm not sure how long you're willing to wait before cancelling but just keep monitoring the developments...

[euro6208]

about to reemerge back over water...

WTPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 18.1N 122.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 122.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.2N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.4N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.7N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.9N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 24.2N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 24.5N 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 121.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND
160300Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF LUZON. THE SYSTEM
HAS NOT ONLY MAINTAINED ITS CENTRAL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE BUT ALSO
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FORMATIVE FEEDER BANDS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST,
AS EVIDENT IN A 142225Z CORIOLIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY, ALONG WITH THE PGTW FIX IN
THE MSI, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE PAST SIX HOUR STORM MOTION
INDICATES THAT TS 14W HAS FINALLY PULLED OUT OF ITS SOUTHERN DIP
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES, RANGING FROM 45-55 KNOTS FROM RJTD
AND PGTW/KNES RESPECTIVELY, DUE TO THE IMPROVED FEEDER BAND
STRUCTURE AND MAINTAINED CENTRAL CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE TROPICAL UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL, PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, IS
NOW POSITIONED OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS PROVIDING FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MAY BE THE CAUSE OF THE RECENT
IMPROVED STRUCTURE. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE SLIGHTLY EASED TO 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. TS 14W IS BEING STEERED IN A NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 14W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
AS THE SHALLOW MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, LOCATED OVER EASTERN CHINA,
PRODUCES A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE STR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND 200 MB STREAMLINE FLOW FROM NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
MAXIMUM JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
THEREFORE, FURTHER DEEPENING OF THIS TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED AND THE
STR SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS OUT OF
TH AREA AND LONGWAVE ZONAL FLOW TEMPORARILY SETS IN. TS 14W SHOULD
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT FEEDS OFF OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(27-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND OUTFLOW SLIGHTLY IMPROVES. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD PEAK AT TAU 36 AND POSSIBLY REACH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL
DETERIORATION OF THE LLCC WILL COMMENCE DUE TO FRICTIONAL FORCES AS
IT DRIFTS FURTHER INLAND BY TAU 72.
C. TS 14W WILL HAVE DISSIPATED OVERLAND BY TAU 96. THE OBJECTIVE
AID GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE TOWARDS AN OVERALL NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE JGSM REMAINING AS THE LEFT MOST
OUTLIER. BASED ON THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE SLOWER NOGAPS AND GFDN.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

over luzon...





based on this image, it looks like kai-tak is already a typhoon and amazingly, it strengthened over land...it could be possible it was a typhoon at landfall...now over water...





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[shyamvk]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp201214_5day.html

I am just attaching the latest tracker from wunderground updated couple of hours back and shows an inland landfall by saturday 800 am jst. From your experience, i do understand there will be variation and deviation but will there be a significant change from this?
Thanks

well now that the storm has made landfall in Luzon--contrary to what the agencies were saying two days ago--the landfall point may have changed significantly... while i still don't think that you should cancel your flight, it may get really interesting in the next 24 to 48 hours because looking at the latest data, Kai-Tak may very well land closer to Hong Kong (by Friday night) than what we previously thought..

i'm not sure how long you're willing to wait before cancelling but just keep monitoring the developments...

My flight will be landing at hong Kong airport at 10:00 am on Saturday and from there on, dragon air to Chong Qing, how bad would the situation be over there in terms of flying. The trackers show it should have passed by hen. Would like the feedback from experts like you.

Thank you

[phwxenthusiast]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp201214_5day.html

I am just attaching the latest tracker from wunderground updated couple of hours back and shows an inland landfall by saturday 800 am jst. From your experience, i do understand there will be variation and deviation but will there be a significant change from this?
Thanks

well now that the storm has made landfall in Luzon--contrary to what the agencies were saying two days ago--the landfall point may have changed significantly... while i still don't think that you should cancel your flight, it may get really interesting in the next 24 to 48 hours because looking at the latest data, Kai-Tak may very well land closer to Hong Kong (by Friday night) than what we previously thought..

i'm not sure how long you're willing to wait before cancelling but just keep monitoring the developments...

My flight will be landing at hong Kong airport at 10:00 am on Saturday and from there on, dragon air to Chong Qing, how bad would the situation be over there in terms of flying. The trackers show it should have passed by hen. Would like the feedback from experts like you.

Thank you

i'm not at expert but if the current forecast tracks hold, i think you should be fine... IF it does get worse than expected, then you might get stuck at Hong Kong or they may even divert your flight... that's just my opinion though,