WPAC: KAI-TAK - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Severe Tropical Storm

#101 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 16, 2012 10:40 am

Typhoon Kai-Tak passing south of hong kong and headed for southern china...


WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 19.7N 114.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 114.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.5N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 21.2N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.7N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.2N 102.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 113.7E.
TYPHOON 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG,
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

Image
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Severe Tropical Storm

#102 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 16, 2012 10:41 am

WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN AREAL EXTENT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING IN DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. DESPITE THIS
DEGRADED IR SIGNATURE, A 161247Z SSMIS IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY,
HOWEVER, SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
A TUTT CELL, WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM, HAS RAPIDLY TRACKED WEST INTO CHINA AND NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW HAS SLACKENED LEADING TO THE IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR FIXES AND THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 14W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. THE 16/00Z
500MB UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATES THAT THE STR HAS STRENGTHENED AND
BROADENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH EASTERLY FLOW ENTRENCHED
ACROSS SOUTHERN CHINA, THEREFORE, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS A CONTINUED WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TY 14W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 12 BUT SHOULD THEN WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO INCREASING INTERACTION WITH LAND. AFTER TAU 24,
TY 14W WILL RAPIDLY DECAY AS IT TRACKS AWAY FROM THE GULF OF TONKIN
AND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF NORTHERN VIETNAM. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Severe Tropical Storm

#103 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Thu Aug 16, 2012 10:42 am

One of the most poorly handled Wpac storms I've ever tracked. The models had no clue with Kaitak and this caused a big headache for all regional forecast agencies!

T3.5 from JTWC now so it would appear to be weakening slightly. Good news for China, effects here in Hong Kong are minimal!
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Severe Tropical Storm

#104 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 16, 2012 10:56 am

Image

how can this weakened? an eye has popped out...looks like 3.5 is a bit low...could kai-tak rapidly intensify before landfall? :eek:
Last edited by euro6208 on Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:51 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Severe Tropical Storm

#105 Postby shyamvk » Thu Aug 16, 2012 10:58 am

What would be your assessment? it seems like a very slow moving storm. Will it still be as dangerous on saturday morning at 800 am hong kong time?

Thanks for all your responses guys
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Severe Tropical Storm

#106 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:17 am

kai-tak is developing at a nice pace and now estimates are at 4.3 and CIRA AMSU at 81 kts!...JTWC seems a bit low with their 65 knot warning intensity...

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 AUG 2012 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 20:05:09 N Lon : 112:59:13 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 973.7mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 4.2


Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -30.4C Cloud Region Temp : -53.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW HOLD
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 43.1 degrees


SATCON (3mem): MSLP = 968 hPa MSW = 75 kt
ADT: 974 hPa 72 kt Scene: UNFRM
CIMSS AMSU: 972 hPa 72 kt Bias Corr: 0 (MW)
CIRA AMSU: 963 hPa 81 kt Tmax: 4.0
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#107 Postby phwxenthusiast » Thu Aug 16, 2012 6:12 pm

nearing Leizhou now...

Image
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Severe Tropical Storm

#108 Postby shyamvk » Thu Aug 16, 2012 7:09 pm

Is it appearing to be weakrning?
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Severe Tropical Storm

#109 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Thu Aug 16, 2012 7:47 pm

Yup Euro it would appear to be consolidating again now before landfall. That coastal area is used to typhoons so shouldn't be a major problem for them, inland flooding through is always a big threat.

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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Typhoon

#110 Postby Meow » Thu Aug 16, 2012 8:05 pm

The JMA upgraded Kai-tak to a typhoon.

It is ready to make landfall over Zhanjiang in Guangdong, China.

Image

TY 1213 (KAI-TAK)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 17 August 2012

<Analyses at 17/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°50'(20.8°)
E111°20'(111.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL120km(65NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 17/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°30'(21.5°)
E108°25'(108.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 18/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°00'(22.0°)
E105°30'(105.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 19/00 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°00'(23.0°)
E101°10'(101.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Typhoon

#111 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:10 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 20.7N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 111.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 21.4N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.9N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.2N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.5N 102.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 110.7E.
TYPHOON 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF HANOI,
VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z. //
NNNN

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING, MOSTLY WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH, HAVE SLIGHTLY
DEEPENED AND TIGHTENED AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPED A 25-NM RAGGED EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON A 162229Z SSMIS IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE HAS SPED UP OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
AS THE STEERING RIDGE, FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CHINA, FURTHER
BUILT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS STRONG EVEN AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW DIMINISHED.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TYPHOON KAI-TAK IS NOW POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE LEIZHOU
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, CROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN, BEFORE
MAKING A SECOND AND FINAL LANDFALL INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM TO THE EAST
OF HANOI. DURING THIS PASSAGE, THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER LAND BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH WBAR TO THE RIGHT OF AND EGRR TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE AND OFFSETTING EACH OTHER. THE CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS HIGH. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Typhoon

#112 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:12 pm

Image

eye just offshore and should make landfall...
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Typhoon

#113 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:19 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE

god bless everyone in this already battered region!!!
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#114 Postby Meow » Fri Aug 17, 2012 12:54 am

Typhooon Kai-tak has made landfall over Zhanjiang at 04:30 UTC.
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Typhoon

#115 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 10:33 am

Image

Down to a strong tropical storm as kai-tak makes it's 3rd and last landfall, this time vietnam!

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 021
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 14W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 21.5N 107.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 107.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.2N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.7N 101.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 107.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z,
180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN


Image
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Typhoon

#116 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 11:10 am

Image

interesting image of kai-tak at landfall over vietnam...it looks like a typhoon...i think jtwc prematurely lowered the intensity...




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#117 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 17, 2012 12:02 pm

An interesting looking inner structure, not often you get to see the inner core of a system so well.
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Depression

#118 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 10:30 am

FINAL WARNING

WTPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 21.1N 105.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 105.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.3N 103.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.5N 100.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 105.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 5 NM NORTH OF
HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A
171845Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOW DECREASING CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND WEAKENING DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVEMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TS 14W IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER LAND AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING INLAND AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

phwxenthusiast
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#119 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sat Aug 18, 2012 4:07 pm

I hope we dont't delete these thread yet... I'm still waiting for youfu's wind reports from china...
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Meow

Re:

#120 Postby Meow » Sat Aug 18, 2012 8:58 pm

phwxenthusiast wrote:I hope we dont't delete these thread yet... I'm still waiting for youfu's wind reports from china...


The JMA has deleted this system. :double:
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