WPAC: KAI-TAK - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 13, 2012 10:50 am

strengthens to a 40 knot tropical storm...kai-tak is either going to brush extreme northern luzon or make landfall but after, hong kong might be in big trouble once again with a typhoon at landfall...

WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 16.4N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.0N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.0N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.0N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.0N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.8N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.7N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 25.2N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 125.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
131200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND
141500Z. //
NNNN

Image
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Re:

#42 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Aug 13, 2012 10:53 am

greenkat wrote:GUH!!!! As if Philippines, Taiwan, China needed yet ANOTHER TC!!! :grr:



Seems thats how it is in the WPAC those storms find one stop and just keep going after it...
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Re:

#43 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 13, 2012 10:55 am

greenkat wrote:GUH!!!! As if Philippines, Taiwan, China needed yet ANOTHER TC!!! :grr:


i didn't even know how bad the flooding was in the philippines until i watched TFC, a philippine based news company..it showed tremendous flooding damage...outflow from kai-tak is already affecting this devastated region...barely any news on this on international news networks :roll:
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 13, 2012 11:00 am

Image

bad news for china especially for the philippines...

WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS FURTHER DEEPENED
AS A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPED OVER THE SYSTEM
.
THE INITIAL
POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 131141Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. TS 14W LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW TOWARD A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST HAS ALSO PERSISTED.
THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE INDUCED
BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVING INTO
THE EAST CHINA SEA. MODERATE VWS WILL TEMPER IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW TO HOLD INTENSIFICATION TO A SLOW RATE EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER TAU 36 AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.

C. AFTER TAU 72, TS KAI-TAK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE, MAKING
LANDFALL BEFORE TAU 96. DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND
INCREASINGLY RESTRICTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TS 14W WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY
AFTER LANDFALL. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WBAR
REMAINS THE LEFT OUTLIER BUT ECMWF AND NOGAPS DEPICT AN
UNLIKELY POLEWARD TRACK THAT WOULD CARRY THE STORM INTO THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF THE
NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS, CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT ANALYSIS AND
PROGNOSIS OF THE STEERING PATTERN. GIVEN THE INCREASING AGREEMENT OF
THE OBJECTIVE AID PACKAGE, TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 13, 2012 11:28 am

Image

looks like center is right under the deep convection...steady strengthening is possible or possibly even rapid if the shear relaxes...dvorak already at 3.5

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 AUG 2012 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 16:37:39 N Lon : 125:20:39 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 989.0mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.8 3.8


Center Temp : -80.9C Cloud Region Temp : -80.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 22km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.8 degrees
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby dhoeze » Mon Aug 13, 2012 3:43 pm

Anyone here able who was able to record the daily accumulated rainfall over Metro Manila since Aug 7?
Thanks
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 13, 2012 6:41 pm

These cloudtops are FRIGID. Looks like the coldest ones are -85°C at least. Although the winds are weak, this storm is VERY impressive. How often do you see this big blotch of white with BLACK in the middle on the rainbow imagery? :D :D :D :D :D

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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Mon Aug 13, 2012 7:46 pm

Looks like centre is displaced to NE of that big ball of monster convection, so Kai-tak is feeling the shear. However shear is expected to drop and it'll be interesting to see how quickly the storm can consolidate in a more favourable environment. The convection associated with the storm has been constantly impressive for the last 36 hours.

Regarding flooding in Philippines, here's what I shot last week in Manila:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DtuQTs7GO8&feature=relmfu[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJgoQoFYsMA&feature=relmfu[/youtube]
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Aug 13, 2012 8:36 pm

this looks like a very exposed center with most deep convection to its SW. though it seems there might just be another circulation under that CDO feature, but that's what I only assume.


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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby Meow » Mon Aug 13, 2012 8:57 pm

Sadly, that is actually a CCC.
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Mon Aug 13, 2012 10:11 pm

Meow wrote:Sadly, that is actually a CCC.


What's a CCC? Do you mean the CDO is covering an LLC?

I can clearly see an exposed LLC on latest visible satellite imagery here - http://cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/satellite/Sat_H_EA.htm?type=1#

Cheers!
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby phwxenthusiast » Mon Aug 13, 2012 10:15 pm

Typhoon Hunter wrote:
Meow wrote:Sadly, that is actually a CCC.


What's a CCC? Do you mean the CDO is covering an LLC?

I can clearly see an exposed LLC on latest visible satellite imagery here - http://cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/satellite/Sat_H_EA.htm?type=1#

Cheers!


Central Cold Cover... Looks good on IR but doesnt necessarily translate to intensification underneath it...
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Mon Aug 13, 2012 10:18 pm

Thanks Pat, I agree with you. I don't think it's a CCC/CDO, just extremely vigorous convection displaced to the south. However shear is plummeting according to CIMMS charts so it should start consolidating. Models all over the place still which isn't helpful!
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby cebuboy » Mon Aug 13, 2012 10:44 pm

Please swing directly north now! That massive burst of convection will be too damaging if it heads to west.
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Aug 13, 2012 10:56 pm

i think that's how sheared storms look like especially when they're thriving to get itself together. ketsana was a sheared and disorganized TS before it hit Luzon, and i remember most of its deep convection are displaced south of its main center, and tha affected Manila and other southern Luzon provinces.


the issue now would be the displaced convection, even though the center misses land, the heaviest precipitation might spread out towards Luzon. :|
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 14, 2012 1:22 am

Image

tremendous convection...
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#57 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Tue Aug 14, 2012 1:55 am

Looking at latest visible sat images it now looks like the LLC has migrated to the south beneath the northern part of the convective blob. That blow up really is amazing and has sustained itself for a good on 24 hours now. Watch out Luzon...
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Re:

#58 Postby phwxenthusiast » Tue Aug 14, 2012 3:04 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Looking at latest visible sat images it now looks like the LLC has migrated to the south beneath the northern part of the convective blob. That blow up really is amazing and has sustained itself for a good on 24 hours now. Watch out Luzon...


yup i noticed that too, latest AMSU MWI seems to suggest it has moved back in as well.. that and the weakening wind shear should be an interesting 12 to 24 hours for Kai-Tak, let's see if it can intensify quickly...
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby oaba09 » Tue Aug 14, 2012 4:48 am

Another tough system to forecast. What's up with the WPAC storms this year?
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ricmood

#60 Postby ricmood » Tue Aug 14, 2012 6:25 am

I'm seeing it well below 18N (about 16.5N) and very near land, I think???
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