WPAC: KAI-TAK - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#81 Postby shyamvk » Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:05 am

My flight will be landing at hong Kong airport at 10:00 am on Saturday and from there on, dragon air to Chong Qing, how bad would the situation be over there in terms of flying. The trackers show it should have passed by hen. Would like the feedback from experts like you.

Thank you[/quote]

i'm not at expert but if the current forecast tracks hold, i think you should be fine... IF it does get worse than expected, then you might get stuck at Hong Kong or they may even divert your flight... that's just my opinion though, :D[/quote]

Thanks for your patient response. Its just that i have a morbid fear of turbulence and these things just send me into a freefall (no pun intended)
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#82 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:17 am

Hope all our friends in Philippines are faring well. In Hong Kong I've got my eyes firmly set on this now, latest model consensus still suggests we're in for a whallop from Kaitak on Friday. JMA, HKO all going for a direct hit with less than 48 hours to go now. Looks like the centre has finally moved offshore Luzon, now the question is how strong is this thing going to get?!?
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#83 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:26 am

Latest statement from HKO on Kaitak:

"Tropical cyclone Kai-tak is moving west-northwestwards, crossing the northern part of Luzon, and entering the South China Sea. According to the present forecast track, Kai-tak will enter within 800 km of Hong Kong later today. The Hong Kong Observatory will consider issuing the Standby signal, No.1, around this evening.

Kai-tak is expected to move closer to the coast of Guangdong tomorrow and on Friday. Local weather will deteriorate tomorrow and on Friday. There will be squally showers and winds will strengthen. Showers are expected to ease off on Saturday.

As Kai-tak still maintains some distance from Hong Kong at the moment, slight variation in its track will bring significant difference in the impact to local weather in the next couple of days. The public is advised to pay attention to the Observatory`s latest information on Kai-tak."
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#84 Postby phwxenthusiast » Wed Aug 15, 2012 5:12 am

wow, you're getting lucky this year, good luck James! Unfortunately, looks like this may hit at night (if JTWC is right)...
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#85 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Aug 15, 2012 5:21 am

circulation looking good even after crossing Luzon. i won't be surprised if Kai-tak will do the same as Vicente while it approaches Hong kong. People out there must brace for another intense typhoon. James, this would be a nice catch-up for missing Vicente last month. ;)


Giving back the concerns you gave us here in Manila. It turned out not as bad as last week's rain event but yes, there were passing heavy rains with cold wind breeze. I heard the northern provinces experienced the worst from this storm. Reports from Baguio City show significant flooding with houses submerged in water...I can't even imagine how that happened....
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#86 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 15, 2012 6:08 am

75 knots before landfall over hong kong? looking bad...hopefully kai-tak won't do a vicente type strengthening right before landfall...a category 4 is horrifying over hong kong...


WTPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 18.9N 120.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 120.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.3N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.8N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 23.4N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 24.1N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 24.8N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 120.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z
IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN

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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#87 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Wed Aug 15, 2012 8:03 am

Shear looks to be dropping fast ahead of Kaitak :eek:

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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#88 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 15, 2012 10:10 am

still a tropical storm but expected to peak at 75 knots before landfall over hong kong!

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 19.5N 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.8N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.0N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.1N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 24.1N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.6N 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 118.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND
161500Z.//
NNNN

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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#89 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 15, 2012 10:13 am

Image

nearing hong kong...

WDPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE ORGANIZATION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY
WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SUFFERED SOME MINOR DEGRADATION
OVER THE PAST SIX HOUR AS THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED FURTHER INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) HAS BEEN BUILDING MORE QUICKLY THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE AND HAS LED TO A FLATTENING
OF THE TRACK AND A SMALL INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED. DUE TO THE
FLATTENING OF THE TRACK, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SHIFTED FROM
SLIGHTLY EAST OF HONG KONG TO SLIGHTLY WEST OF HONG KONG. THERE HAS
BEEN A NOTICEABLE FLARE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE FEEDER BANDS
LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS BEING ADVECTED
TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS); HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A LACK OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CHINA HAS BEEN RAPIDLY TRACKING WESTWARD AND APPEARS TO BE
NO LONGER SUPPORTING ANY POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE 3.5/3.5 DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND A 3.0/3.5 DVORAK FROM KNES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT SPEED INCREASES NOTED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED BY 161200Z. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH LANDFALL AS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
VERY FAVORABLE (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) WITH A NOTABLE WARM POOL LOCATED
ALONG COASTAL CHINA. VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS
THROUGH LANDFALL, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE THE AMPLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CURRENTLY OBSERVED, BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO HIGH LEVELS (30
KNOTS) BY TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 24, THE FRICTIONAL IMPACTS ASSOCIATED
WITH LANDFALL AND INCREASING VWS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Meow

#90 Postby Meow » Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:35 am

The JMA has upgraded Kai-tak to a STS at 15Z, unusually time.
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Severe Tropical Storm

#91 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Wed Aug 15, 2012 6:07 pm

Tracks continue to shift west and Kaitak defying all forecasts - what a headache for the forecast agencies this storm has been. Reminds me of Nanmadol last year and Fengshen in 2009!
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#92 Postby greenkat » Wed Aug 15, 2012 10:20 pm

Is now equivalent to a C1 typhoon on SSHS scale. The thing that makes this so dangerous is that it's just essentially raining on top of Vicente. Stay safe everyone in the region!
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Hope this helped ;)

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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Severe Tropical Storm

#93 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:38 pm

now 70 knots and strengthening seems likely...to 80 knots before landfall...



WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 19.2N 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 117.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.1N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.0N 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 21.7N 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.1N 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.4N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 116.5E.
TYPHOON 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS
TRACKED JUST NORTH OF WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z. //
NNNN

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED JUST NORTH OF WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN
EYE IS ABOUT TO FORM AS CONVECTIVE BANDS DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SUBSIDENCE AND SHEAR ALONG THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT PERSIST, AS EVIDENCED BY THE SHARP OUTLINE.
HOWEVER, THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG AND IS LIKELY THE
MAIN FACTOR FOR THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OVER EASTERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 14W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN. IT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DUE
TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS) BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL JUST EAST OF LEIZHOU PENINSULA
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. AFTER LANDFALL, TYPHOON KAI-TAK WILL RAPIDLY
DECAY DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Severe Tropical Storm

#94 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:44 pm

Image

already 4.0 for ragged eye...


TPPN10 PGTW 160312

A. TYPHOON 14W (KAI-TAK)

B. 16/0232Z

C. 19.1N

D. 116.4E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CONVECTION
WRAPS .90 ON LOG10 SPIRAL, ADD .5 FOR WHITE BF YIELDING DT OF
4.0. APPEARS TO BE A RAGGED EYE, BUT CONVECTION DID NOT WRAP 1.0
SO USED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING METHOD. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/2207Z 19.1N 117.4E WIND
16/0125Z 19.2N 116.7E MMHS


CASPER
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#95 Postby phwxenthusiast » Thu Aug 16, 2012 5:08 am

eyewall now seen on Microwave, yikes! :eek:

Image
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Severe Tropical Storm

#96 Postby shyamvk » Thu Aug 16, 2012 5:26 am

Is there a confirmed direction where this is heading? Does it show signs of weakening?

Thanks
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Severe Tropical Storm

#97 Postby phwxenthusiast » Thu Aug 16, 2012 5:28 am

shyamvk wrote:Is there a confirmed direction where this is heading? Does it show signs of weakening?

Thanks

Right now it seems to be heading towards Leizhou Peninsula near the city of Zhanjiang, could make landfall tomorrow morning.. And no it doesnt seem to be weakening... If anything it could intensify futher before landfall..:)
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Severe Tropical Storm

#98 Postby shyamvk » Thu Aug 16, 2012 5:35 am

I have a question here. It is expected to make Landfall by Friday morning, so what would happen to this typhoon after that? will it still be as powerful or will the outer periphery of the storm cause more damage as well.

Thanks
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#99 Postby Chickenzilla » Thu Aug 16, 2012 5:46 am

Kai-tak will weaken after landfall and later dissipate. Even after the winds weaken, flooding will probably still be a concern.
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#100 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 16, 2012 6:52 am

Great inner eyewall but a real lack of decent convection on the northern side, the northern side of the system literally is just the eyewall!
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