EPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

#61 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 14, 2012 9:35 am

TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 14 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER OF HECTOR...AND IT HAS MOVED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER
DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER...THEREFORE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
HELD AT 40 KT. HECTOR CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR...WHICH HAS KEPT THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH HECTOR CURRENTLY LIES
OVER 28C WATER TEMPERATURES...IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C
WATERS IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. GIVEN THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS...HECTOR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3. DISSIPATION IS NOW
SHOWN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT HECTOR IS NOW GAINING SOME
LATITUDE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/5. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS DUE TO A
DEEPENING DEEP-LAYER LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF CALIFORNIA. A
TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS AS
HECTOR BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 18.1N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 18.3N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 18.7N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 19.1N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 19.7N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 20.5N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1200Z 21.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: EPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 14, 2012 11:48 am

LLC becoming exposed to the east due to shear.....probably will fight that off but in the long term is dosnt look good for Hector IMO....
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#63 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 14, 2012 11:53 am

I think the hurricane streak is over.
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#64 Postby Chickenzilla » Tue Aug 14, 2012 1:21 pm

Me too.
Exposed. :darrow:
Image
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Re: EPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 14, 2012 9:38 pm

TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 14 2012

DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATED...LEAVING THE CENTER
OF HECTOR EXPOSED ONCE AGAIN. AS THIS OCCURRED...THE CYCLONE MOVED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS. MORE RECENTLY IT APPEARS THAT
HECTOR HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. A NEW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT DVORAK
SATELLITE ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT. HECTOR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE TRACK GUIDANCE INSISTS THAT HECTOR WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY
SOON AS IT IS STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE
OVER MEXICO. AS HECTOR WEAKENS...IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD
IN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING
THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERN INITIAL
POSITION. AFTER THAT TIME...THE UPDATED TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 17.2N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.5N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 18.1N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 18.7N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 19.4N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0000Z 20.5N 118.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z 21.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: EPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Depression

#66 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 15, 2012 3:36 pm

Downgraded to TD.

WTPZ43 KNHC 152035
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
200 PM PDT WED AUG 15 2012

HECTOR IS WEAKENING DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CENTER REMAINS
EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF DISORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION...AND
AN ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1658 UTC SHOWED WIND VECTORS OF AT MOST 25 KT
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA...HECTOR
IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND THIS INTENSITY
COULD BE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/6. A COMBINATION
OF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD STEER HECTOR SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO...
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
AGAIN SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. IT LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DURING THE FIRST 24 HR AND NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER.

THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR HECTOR TO MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS
WHILE CONTINUING TO EXPERIENCE SHEAR. THUS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
AFTER 36 HR...AND THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 120 HR IN
AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 18.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 19.3N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 20.5N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 21.5N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 22.3N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1800Z 23.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z 24.5N 118.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: EPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Depression

#67 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 15, 2012 9:48 pm

WTPZ43 KNHC 160245
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
800 PM PDT WED AUG 15 2012

THE CENTER OF HECTOR REMAINS EXPOSED...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO A SINGLE BURST NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE-BASED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT HECTOR HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN...SO THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT.
THE WEAKENING TREND SEEN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
HIGH...AND HECTOR WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON THESE FACTORS...
HECTOR IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW AFTER 24 HOURS.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF HECTOR IS
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE LATEST FIXES
SUGGEST AN INITIAL MOTION OF 355/5. THE FORECAST REASONING IS
OTHERWISE UNCHANGED...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF
A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE NEW CENTER LOCATION...AND
IS NEAR THE MIDDLE THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 18.8N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 19.7N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 20.8N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 21.7N 116.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0000Z 22.5N 116.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z 23.5N 117.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY
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Re: EPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Depression

#68 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 16, 2012 9:38 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
800 AM PDT THU AUG 16 2012

SPIRAL BANDING ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HECTOR HAS
PERSISTED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND A BLEND OF A 0402 UTC AMSU
INTENSITY ESTIMATE AND THE TAFB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION SUPPORTS
MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT. HECTOR SHOULD DECAY TO A
REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OR POSSIBLY EARLIER...AS IT
TRAVERSES COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND REMAINS IN A MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 335/4 KT. A GENERAL
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW GENERATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 19.7N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 20.1N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 21.0N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0000Z 21.8N 117.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 22.3N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Re: EPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Depression

#69 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 16, 2012 9:49 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
800 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HECTOR DIMINISHED AROUND 2100
UTC...REDUCING THE CYCLONE TO NOTHING MORE THAN A SWIRL OF
LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS NOT YET BEEN ABSENT LONG
ENOUGH FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. HECTOR IS
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW SOON AS IT CONTINUES TO
ENCOUNTER PERSISTENTLY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR...LOWER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND A DRY AND STABLE MARINE-LAYER AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARBY STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. DISSIPATION IS
FORECAST IN ABOUT 2-3 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/04 KT. HECTOR SHOULD BE STEERED
ON A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IN
BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND MID-TROPOSPHERIC
CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES WEAKER/SHALLOWER IN
NATURE...IT SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND MEANDER AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 20.2N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 20.9N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/0000Z 21.9N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 22.9N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z 23.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: EPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Depression

#70 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:01 am

BEST TRACK: EP08, 205N 1163W, 20kts, 1006mb, LO HECTOR

It's been a long and winding road, Ernesto/Hector. We'll see both of you in 2018!
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#71 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 17, 2012 9:57 am

Goodbye Hector.
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