EPAC: INVEST 95E

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

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invest_ep952012.invest
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201208121740
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 95, 2012, DB, O, 2012081218, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP952012
EP, 95, 2012081218, , BEST, 0, 130N, 940W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HECTOR...LOCATED ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 121758
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1758 UTC SUN AUG 12 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952012) 20120812 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120812  1800   120813  0600   120813  1800   120814  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.7N  93.6W   14.3N  95.1W   15.1N  97.0W   16.4N  99.1W
BAMD    13.7N  93.6W   14.2N  95.3W   15.0N  97.0W   15.9N  98.8W
BAMM    13.7N  93.6W   14.8N  95.4W   16.0N  97.1W   17.4N  99.0W
LBAR    13.7N  93.6W   14.5N  95.7W   15.6N  98.4W   16.8N 101.3W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          35KTS          43KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          30KTS          28KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120814  1800   120815  1800   120816  1800   120817  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.9N 101.3W   20.8N 106.2W   23.1N 111.4W   24.1N 117.5W
BAMD    17.0N 100.7W   19.3N 104.7W   21.7N 109.4W   24.0N 114.2W
BAMM    19.1N 101.1W   22.0N 105.6W   24.3N 110.7W   25.4N 116.9W
LBAR    18.2N 104.3W   22.3N 109.3W   27.6N 111.9W   30.3N 111.5W
SHIP        49KTS          62KTS          67KTS          62KTS
DSHP        27KTS          27KTS          31KTS          29KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.7N LONCUR =  93.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  13.0N LONM12 =  91.4W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  12.3N LONM24 =  89.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[hurricanes1234]

This one is over very warm waters.

[hurricanes1234]

Great! It is only moving at WNW 10 mph. That track should take 95E along the perfect path for at least some steady intensification. However, interests along the coast should monitor this system. I see that the models suggest that this storm will become no more than a weak hurricane. However, it is way too early to tell. I think it may become at least a Category 2.

____________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

This thing moved inland a long time ago.

[Yellow Evan]

Scratch that, the thing is back over water.

[cycloneye]

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep952012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208141345
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END