WPAC: TEMBIN - Extratropical

[Meow]

There may be a trend in 2012: When the JMA upgrades a system to a tropical storm, the JTWC upgrades it to a tropical depression.



WTPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181751Z AUG 12//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 17.7N 124.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 124.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.5N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.8N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.5N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.3N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.1N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.7N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 124.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 181751Z AUG 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 181800).//
NNNN

[euro6208]

close to depression status...now 1.0...

If a system’s T number is 1.0, the JTWC will issue a TCFA instead of upgrading it to a tropical depression.

same thing...jtwc usually upgrades at 1.5 or 2.0...that is why i said close to depression status of 1.5= 25 knots

[euro6208]

oh god....another typhoon landfall?

[euro6208]

looks like a favorable environment for further development...

WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND AN 182203Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW TIGHTLY
CURVED, DEEPLY CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL OF THE SSMIS IMAGE AND AN
APPARENTLY VISIBLE LLCC IN THE MSI, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW
AND RJTD ALONG WITH 25-30 KNOTS OBSERVED IN THE 181548Z OSCAT PASS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED A COUPLE
DEGREES POLEWARD OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AXIS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE MULTIPLE SMALL TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELLS THAT PREVIOUSLY EXISTED A FEW DEGREES NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC HAVE SINCE PROPAGATED FURTHER TO THE WEST.
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA TO WEAKEN AND IS
EVIDENT BY THE MSI SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC, WHEREAS BEFORE IT WAS LACKING
IN THIS SECTOR. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS MODERATE AND A SLIGHT
CONNECTION OF OUTFLOW TO THE EAST INTO A LARGER TUTT CELL IS ALSO
NOTICEABLE. TD 15W IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS
EVIDENT FROM PAST MOTION. THE SYSTEM HAS EXHIBITED SLOW EQUATORWARD
DRIFT OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS AS IT RESIDES NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE TUTT AND AN EXTENSION OF THE NER.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 15W SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARDS DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. BY TAU 24 THE NARROW WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL NER SHOULD BEGIN TO STEER THE SYSTEM ON A MORE POLEWARD
TRACK. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TD 15W SHOULD CONTINUE THIS POLEWARD
TRACK AS THE EXTENSION OF THE NER BUILDS IN. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
SUCH AS WEAK TO MODERATE VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-30
DEGREES CELSIUS), AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW. BY TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES, IT SHOULD COME UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR),
CENTERED EAST OF JAPAN, AND BEGIN TO DEFLECT WESTWARD TOWARDS TAIWAN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TD 15W SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED
BY THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD WHERE LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96
AS A SIGNIFICANT TYPHOON. BY TAU 120, TD 15W SHOULD EMERGE OFF THE
WESTERN COAST OF TAIWAN INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT WHERE IT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARDS EASTERN CHINA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BE ABLE TO REFORM AFTER THE BRIEF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKENED BY THIS INTERACTION. THE OBJECTIVE
AID GUIDANCE IS SPILT BETWEEN A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AND A
SOUTHEASTWARD TURN. BASED ON PREVIOUS TRACK MOTION AND SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN WAS FAVORED. AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS
MADE ITS LOOP POLEWARD THE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY FAIR AGREEMENT
IN A TRACK TOWARDS TAIWAN. HOWEVER, THE NOGAPS IS AN OUTLIER WITH A
TRACK TOWARDS THE LUZON STRAIT AND THE GFS TRACKS CLOSER TO
SHANGHAI. DUE TO THE INITIAL WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF FUTURE STEERING INFLUENCES, CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

euro forecast: small midget but powerful typhoon near taiwan...

[euro6208]

i think we might see an upgrade to tropical storm strength (1-min) soon...PGTW at 2.5 and CI at 2.1

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1005.7mb/ 31.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.2 2.5

TPPN11 PGTW 190255

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (TEMBIN)

B. 19/0232Z

C. 17.7N

D. 124.8E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP
OF 1.0 (THOUGH FRAGMENTED) ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS A 3.5 DT.
MET/PT YIELD A 2.5. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
18/2203Z 17.9N 124.6E SSMS


BELMONDO

[Typhoon Hunter]

Watching this one closely for a possible trip to Taiwan next week to cover it. Tembin looking very good on latest visible sat imagery!

[ManilaTC]

Wait a minute guys, what NER? (Near equatorial ridge)?

[phwxenthusiast]

well there is some ridging near the equator...

anyway, i seriously think agencies are underestimating this system.. sure, the convection hasn't been that impressive and the cloud canopy doesn't look that organized, but the microwave indicates otherwise with pretty strong banding and what looks to be an eyewall forming... i won't honestly be surprised if this becomes a typhoon as early as tomorrow.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dexterlabio]

It looks like a strong tropical storm, well if it's not the case...but it certainly looks good on satellite imagery...

[Meow]

JMA: 35kt 00Z 40kt 06Z

Tembin really grows fast.

[phwxenthusiast]

really doubt this is a 40kt storm, much less a 35kt...



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dhoeze]

any images where we can see the effects to the SouthWest Monsoon of this system?
thanks!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Wow, those microwave images are crazy. Looks like an eyewall is 75% complete! Amazing watching these small storms rapidly intensify like this!

[Meow]

Impressive!

[Meow]

Tembin really grew faster and faster...



TS 1214 (TEMBIN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 19 August 2012

<Analyses at 19/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°35'(17.6°)
E124°40'(124.7°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 20/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°50'(18.8°)
E125°05'(125.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 21/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°25'(21.4°)
E125°00'(125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 22/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°05'(23.1°)
E123°30'(123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

[Typhoon Hunter]

Don't agree with JMA that this is a 45kts storm and not expected to intensify over next 24hrs, it's clearly been RI-ing!

I grabbed this from the China typhoon web forum, it would appear to be a pro-ECMWF chart showing Tembin reaching disturbingly high level of intensity prior to landfall on Taiwan!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[mrbagyo]

I also believe it is rapidly intensifying... it is becoming more solid....

[Meow]

Don't agree with JMA that this is a 45kts storm and not expected to intensify over next 24hrs, it's clearly been RI-ing!

The JTWC also mentioned that Tembin reached 45 knots.

[Meow]

I also believe it is rapidly intensifying... it is becoming more solid....

The eyeball broke.