WPAC: TEMBIN - Extratropical

[euro6208]

wow that is interesting! a rapidly developing tropical cyclone...!

[euro6208]

it seems like all agencies are underestimating the intensity of tembin!

i would place the intensity at a very conservative 75 knots based on solid eyewall although an eye has yet to appear in IR...





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[euro6208]

massive strike for taiwan...80 knot typhoon landfall although tembin may be way way stronger currently...

WTPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 17.4N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.9N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.8N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.0N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.0N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.5N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.4N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.1N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 125.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN


low shear, sst above 28 C, ample equatorward outflow with increasing westward outflow to a tutt cell, A TUTT
CELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS BEGINNING TO SUPPORT A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.

sounds like a monster in the making!


WDPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR
03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE LLCC. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON 3.0/3.0 DVORAKS FROM PGTW,
RJTD, AND KNES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP
TRACKING THE PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIABLE LLCC. THE LLCC HAS BECOME CLOUD
FILLED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE REMAINS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION BASED ON THE WELL ORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF TS 15W. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 15W IS LOCATED SEVERAL DEGREES NORTH OF
A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) WITH A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE NER TO
THE EAST AND A MINOR TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF TS 15W, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE NER IS PROVIDING AMPLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH
INCREASING WESTWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT CELL. ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT
CELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS BEGINNING TO SUPPORT A DEVELOPING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TS 15W REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND HAS BEEN ON A SLOW YET STEADY TRACK FOR THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A NER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TS 15W
BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHWESTWARD CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO START TRACKING
NORTHWARD. AS TS 15W MOVES NORTHWARD, THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A
DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED EASTWARD OF HONSHU,
JAPAN WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48.
THE WESTWARD TURN WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72.
STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE 28 CELSIUS, WITH IMPROVING
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS VENTING THE SYSTEM AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR REMAINING LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS).
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, MAKING
LANDFALL IN TAIWAN SLIGHTLY BEFORE TAU 96. TRACKING OVER TAIWAN, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE TAIWAN STRAIT SHORTLY AFTER TAU
96. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AS IT TRACKS OVER TAIWAN,
EMERGING AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO A WELL ORGANIZED GROUPING WITH EGRR BEING THE SINGULAR OUTLIER
TO THE SOUTH. NGPS HAS COME INTO ALIGNMENT WITH GFS, ECMWF, AND
GFDN. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED PREDOMINANTLY ON THE CONSENSUS
NOW THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT.
BASED ON THE QUESTIONABLE TIMING FOR THE NER TO BEGIN THE NORTHWARD
PUSH OF TS 15W, THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING, HOWEVER
WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A PERSISTENT TRACK SOLUTION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

underestimated...


TXPQ22 KNES 191511
TCSWNP

A. 15W (TEMBIN)

B. 19/1432Z

C. 17.5N

D. 124.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT=3.5 BASED ON .8 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=3.5. MET=3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. 6 HOUR AVE DT OF 3.5
JUSTIFY BREAKING RESTRAINTS LIMITING FT=2.0 WITHIN 24 HOURS OF INITIAL
CLASSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

19/0920Z 17.5N 124.8E SSMIS
19/1312Z 17.5N 124.8E SSMI


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

i think it's safe to say that tembin is a typhoon...a couple of images already proved that...due to it's very small size for a west pacific storm and rapid intensification, dvorak is having a hard time determining the strength...recon??? too bad



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[RL3AO]

Looks like fast if not rapid intensification.

[Extratropical94]

JMA says 45 knots and JTWC is currently at 55 knots although an eye has popped out on visible imagery. ADT numbers immediately went up to more than 5.0 which means approximately 95 knots one-minute sustained and that would be a typhoon equivalent to a strong category 2 hurricane (like Gordon for example).

Both agencies keep surprising me over and over again with their "catch up play" when it comes to rapidly organizing systems.

[Macrocane]

No way this is not a 65 kt typhoon to say the least. I have informed a friend in Taiwan about the possibility of two strong typhoon hitting the islands this week. Of course I say that based on the models and the forecast from JMA and JTWC.

[Meow]

The JMA upgraded Tembin to a STS at 21Z...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Well done HKO for upgrading Tembin to a typhoon, from their homepage:

Severe Tropical Storm Tembin has intensified into a typhoon. At 6 a.m., Tembin was centred about 530 kilometres northeast of Manila. It is forecast to move slowly and linger around the seas east of the Philippines.

I think it's clear going by latest subjective Dvorak that JTWC should upgrade this to a typhoon at 03z:


TXPQ22 KNES 192141
TCSWNP

A. 15W (TEMBIN)

B. 19/2032Z

C. 17.9N

D. 124.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED RAPIDLY WITH DT=4.5 BASED ON 15/10
BANDING. COULD NOT LEGALLY DO AN EYE EVEN THOUGH ONE HAD DEVELOPED. DID
6HR AVG TO GET FT AND CI AS 4.5 WITH MET=3.0 ON RAPID CURVE AND
PAT=3.5. FT IS BASED ON RI.

-----------------

TPPN11 PGTW 192129

A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN)

B. 19/2101Z

C. 18.0N

D. 124.8E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. EYE DIAM 16.5 NM. OW EYE
SURR BY MG YIELDS A 4.5 DT. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS A 3.5. DBO
CONSTRAINTS.

[phwxenthusiast]

I wonder what does "could not legally do" mean?? Can't they break the constraints or something, like they've done many times before??

[Extratropical94]

65 knots now officially confirmed by the JMA at 00Z!

[Meow]

The JMA upgraded Tembin to a typhoon.



TY 1214 (TEMBIN)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 20 August 2012

<Analyses at 20/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N18°00'(18.0°)
E124°50'(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL80km(45NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 21/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°00'(20.0°)
E125°10'(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 22/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°00'(22.0°)
E124°40'(124.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 23/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°05'(23.1°)
E122°00'(122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yup and much higher forecast intensity too so it could well be a strong landfall. Only saving grace right now is the storm is relatively small and should move over Taiwan quite quickly thus reducing chances of bad flooding as we've seen with previous slow moving typhoons.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA and local government products.

[Meow]

Will it be a category 4 typhoon?



WTPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 18.0N 124.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 124.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.1N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.5N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.8N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.6N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.5N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.5N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 23.3N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 124.8E.
TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

eye already appeared in the latest visible... its awesome... it "bombed" last night.

[RL3AO]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 AUG 2012 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 17:58:54 N Lon : 124:42:49 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 961.8mb/ 92.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.2 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +1.3C Cloud Region Temp : -62.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

[Typhoon Hunter]

Beautiful looking typhoon right now!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[vbhoutex]

That is a classic looking typhoon. And as you said, beautiful to look at. Are you heading to Taiwan to intercept it Jim?

[euro6208]

holy cow!!!