WPAC: TEMBIN - Extratropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
B In macau
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 4
Joined: Wed Aug 22, 2012 10:41 pm

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Severe Tropical Storm

#141 Postby B In macau » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:04 am

Wow thats the crazy typhoon path ever, looks like it was drunk!
0 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1380
Age: 25
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Severe Tropical Storm

#142 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:53 am

can someone approximate the size of this monster...its very big..
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12512
Age: 35
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Severe Tropical Storm

#143 Postby senorpepr » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:59 am

mrbagyo wrote:can someone approximate the size of this monster...its very big..


Regarding the cirrus shield, it's about 1200 km west to east and 1300 km north to south. As for the central dense overcast, it's more like 600x600 km.
0 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1380
Age: 25
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Severe Tropical Storm

#144 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:15 am

senorpepr wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:can someone approximate the size of this monster...its very big..


Regarding the cirrus shield, it's about 1200 km west to east and 1300 km north to south. As for the central dense overcast, it's more like 600x600 km.



oh, I mispost my question, it should be for bolaven. hahaha,, bolaven is the one I'm talkin about though tembin also increased in size..
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12870
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Severe Tropical Storm

#145 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:35 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 022
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 15W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 22.3N 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 119.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.0N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 21.7N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.9N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.8N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.5N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.5N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 27.1N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 119.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND
250900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR
22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRUCTURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS SUFFERED A SIGNIFICANT INFLOW ISSUE AS WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT TRACK OVER SOUTHERN TAIWAN. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS DROPPED THE INTENSITY TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AT 60
KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS IN TAIWAN AND FROM A RECENT 230200Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWING WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE, WITH A BAND OF WINDS IN THE LUZON STRAIT
SHOWING 30 KNOTS. RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW REFLECTED A DT
OF 3.0 WITH A PT OF 4.0. THE 4.5 FT WAS LIMITED BY CONSTRAINTS.
GIVEN THIS ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND OBSERVATIONS ON TAIWAN, THE INTENSITY WAS
DECREASED TO 60 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM STRUGGLES TO REORGANIZE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONTINUES
TO PROVE AMPLE EXHAUST FOR THE SYSTEM, BUT THE POLEWARD CHANNEL HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING. TS 15W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER
THE EAST CHINA SEA. TY 16W (BOLAVEN) REMAINS OVER 700 NM AWAY, AND
DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ANY NOTABLE EFFECT ON THE TRACK OF TS 15W AS
IT IS BEYOND THE TYPICAL THRESHOLD OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE HAS BEEN A CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING BEING GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. THE NEW PHILOSOPHY INCORPORATES AN INITIALLY WEAKER SYSTEM
THAT STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WEAKENING BEYOND.
B. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TO STEER IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION WITHIN THE TAIWAN STRAIT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING IN A FAVORABLE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT WITH VENTING IN THE
UPPER LEVEL EQUATORWARD VENTING CHANNEL. AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
OVER MAINLAND CHINA INTENSIFIES, THE STR TO THE NORTH OF TS 15W WILL
WEAKEN, ALLOWING FOR A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO BEGIN TRACKING THE
SYSTEM BACK TO THE EAST IN A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE NER AMPLIFIES. AS TY 16W (BOLAVEN) PASSES TO
THE NORTHEAST, SOME BINARY INTERACTION IS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING
OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND TAU 72 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BEYOND TAU 72 WOULD DEPEND ON OUTFLOW
FROM TY 16W AND THE STRENGTH OF THE STR AS IT RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
BEHIND TY 16W. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT (ALL
INDICATING A LOOPING TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN) WITHIN 72
HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE IS LARGE VARIATION IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
BEYOND TAU 72 DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION WITH TY 16W AND
THE VARIATION IN STR ORIENTATION. AS SUCH, THERE REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12870
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Severe Tropical Storm

#146 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:22 am

Image

tembin strengthening...



WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 22.6N 119.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 119.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.5N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.1N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.3N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.0N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.1N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.7N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 28.4N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 119.3E.
TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 36 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS
THE ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS THE LLCC HAS BEEN MOVING AWAY FROM
TAIWAN. RADAR IMAGERY FROM TAIWAN HAS BEEN HELPFUL IN TRACKING OF TY
15W AND SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EYE OBSERVED IN EIR. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD WHICH SUPPORT THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT NOTED PREVIOUS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE A RADIAL VENTING MECHANISM ALLOWING FOR THE RECENT
INTENSIFICATION AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT (05 TO 10
KNOTS). TY 15W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST AND APPEARS TO BE
TRACKING INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BUT HAS NOT YET STARTED
THE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP UNDER THE SHIFTING
STEERING INFLUENCES OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER), LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF TY 15W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 15W WILL CONTINUE TO STEER IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION
WITHIN THE TAIWAN STRAIT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SLOWLY INTENSIFYING
IN A FAVORABLE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE
PROVIDING GOOD EQUATORWARD VENTING THROUGH TAU 48. AS THE STR
CURRENTLY STEERING TY 15W BEGINS TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TY
16W (BOLAVEN), THE NER TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
BRINGING TY 15W EASTWARD. THE NER WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF TY 16W TO THE NORTHWEST, CAUSING TY 15W TO TURN TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE NER AMPLIFIES AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONS TO THE
STR AS IT RE-BUILDS WHEN TY 16W MOVES INTO THE YELLOW SEA. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT TY 16W WILL HAVE SOME BINARY INTERACTIONS WITH
TY 15W IN THE LATER TAUS AS TY 16W PASSES TO THE NORTH OF TY 15W. AS
TY 16W MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF TY 15W, THE OUTFLOW OF TY 16W IS
EXPECTED TO HAMPER THE OUTFLOW FROM TY 15W, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE YELLOW SEA BEYOND TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT (ALL INDICATING A
LOOPING TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN) WITHIN 72 HOURS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A LARGE VARIATION IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE BEYOND TAU 72
DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION WITH TY 16W AND THE VARIATION
IN STR ORIENTATION. AS SUCH, THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12870
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Severe Tropical Storm

#147 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:39 am

Image

wow this is incredible! a very small eye aka pinhole is present!?! after just emerging over water
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12870
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Severe Tropical Storm

#148 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:29 pm

Image

are you kidding me? tembin forecast to make landfall in the same area he made landfall several days ago as a strong category 3?

WTPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 22.4N 118.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 118.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.0N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.2N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.6N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.7N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.7N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 25.7N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 29.0N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 117.8E.
TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 35
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. //
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH RAIN BANDS
BEGINNING TO WRAP ANEW INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE
242226Z SSMI-S 37 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE. CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND
RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT
THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A RADIAL VENTING MECHANISM AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (05 TO 10 KNOTS) OVER THE SYSTEM HAVE HELPED SUSTAIN ITS
INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST AND APPEARS TO
BE DRIFTING INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 15W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AS THE STEERING STR WEAKENS
WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST, THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL STEER TY 15W TO DRIFT
EASTWARD AFTER TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY DUE TO
CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER- LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, PRIOR TO MAKING A
SECONDARY LANDFALL INTO TAIWAN BEFORE TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, A BUILDING STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ASSUME
STEERING AND ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. NUMERIC MODELS INDICATE
TY 15W WILL HAVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TY 16W, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA. THIS INTERACTION WILL BE AT THE EXPENSE OF TY
15W, CAUSING IT TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS THE OUTFLOW OF TY 16W IS
EXPECTED TO HAMPER THE OUTFLOW FROM TY 15W. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN AGREEMENT AS FAR AS LOOPING THE CYCLONE BACK INTO TAIWAN
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN THAT ABRUPTLY DEFLECTS THE VORTEX POLEWARD
INTO CHINA AFTER TAU 36. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE
FORECAST ENVELOPE BEYOND TAU 72. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS LOW. //
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12870
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Severe Tropical Storm

#149 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:52 pm

Image

continues to develop...euro actually intensifies tembin rapidly....
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

Meow

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Severe Tropical Storm

#150 Postby Meow » Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:17 am

Let’s see if Tembin will really turn around.

Image

STS 1214 (TEMBIN)
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 25 August 2012

<Analyses at 25/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N22°20'(22.3°)
E117°50'(117.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 26/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°30'(21.5°)
E117°10'(117.2°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 27/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°35'(20.6°)
E118°25'(118.4°)
Direction and speed of movement SE Slowly
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 28/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°35'(21.6°)
E120°35'(120.6°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL520km(280NM)
0 likes   

phwxenthusiast
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 635
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)

#151 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:05 am

eyewall becoming much more organized now..even the radars from China showing a pretty defined eye... warm waters and weak wind shear should allow this to continue intensifying in the next 2 days... will be surprised if JMA doesn't upgrade this back to a typhoon by tomorrow.

Image

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12870
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Severe Tropical Storm

#152 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:30 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 21.9N 117.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 117.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.1N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.4N 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.3N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.1N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.5N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 28.3N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 32.5N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 117.1E.
TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS
37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHWEST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251239Z
SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A 20 NM RAGGED EYE WITH INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE AND RADAR FIXES FROM TAIWAN. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. TY 15W IS LOCATED
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT IS BEGINNING TO WEAKLY
INTERACT WITH TY 16W AND DRIFT SLOWLY IN A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE MOTION.
THE 25/00Z 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND POLEWARD OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). TY 15W'S CENTER IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 755 NM
WEST OF TY 16W'S CENTER.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN THIS WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 36 AND WILL TRACK INCREASINGLY EASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER WITH WEAK BINARY INTERACTION
POSSIBLE. AFTER TAU 36, THE NER IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
EAST AS TY 16W TRACKS QUICKLY POLEWARD INTO THE YELLOW SEA. THIS
WILL ALLOW TY 15W TO TURN AND ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OVER, OR PERHAPS
JUST EAST OF TAIWAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH A 190 NM SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 36 BUT WILL THEN WEAKEN PRIMARILY DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AND POSSIBLY SOME INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF TY 16W (ABOUT 650-700 NM AT TAU 36-48).
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARD THE SHANGHAI
REGION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE
SPREAD AT TAU 120. GFDN IS THE WESTERN-MOST OUTLIER WHILE GFS
REMAINS THE EASTERN-MOST OUTLIER WITH A POLEWARD TRACK ALONG 125E.
THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
FAVORS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND JGSM SOLUTIONS. TY 15W IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND
SHOULD DECREASE TO 50 TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 120. BASED ON THE COMPLEX
AND WEAK STEERING PATTERN AS WELL AS POSSIBLE WEAK INTERACTION WITH
TY 16W, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12870
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re:

#153 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:44 am

phwxenthusiast wrote:eyewall becoming much more organized now..even the radars from China showing a pretty defined eye... warm waters and weak wind shear should allow this to continue intensifying in the next 2 days... will be surprised if JMA doesn't upgrade this back to a typhoon by tomorrow.


Image

good job jtwc for calling this a typhoon as it is one as an eye has popped out during the last few hours...which means it is strengthening! now at 70 knots according to jtwc...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

Meow

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#154 Postby Meow » Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:26 pm

The JMA upgraded Tembin to a typhoon again.

They still estimate that Tembin will make landfall over the Hengchun Peninsula again.

Image

TY 1214 (TEMBIN)
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 25 August 2012

<Analyses at 25/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N21°25'(21.4°)
E116°40'(116.7°)
Direction and speed of movement SW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 26/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°10'(20.2°)
E116°55'(116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement S Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 27/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°30'(21.5°)
E119°55'(119.9°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 28/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N24°00'(24.0°)
E122°20'(122.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL520km(280NM)
0 likes   

Meow

#155 Postby Meow » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:07 pm

Tembin continues intensifying.

Image

TY 1214 (TEMBIN)
Issued at 01:00 UTC, 26 August 2012

<Analyses at 26/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N21°05'(21.1°)
E116°40'(116.7°)
Direction and speed of movement S Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 27/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°35'(20.6°)
E117°55'(117.9°)
Direction and speed of movement ESE Slowly
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 28/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°40'(22.7°)
E121°35'(121.6°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 29/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°05'(26.1°)
E123°20'(123.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
0 likes   

Meow

#156 Postby Meow » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:10 pm

I never saw such a strong typhoon after making landfall over Taiwan, which is a wall to typhoons. Surprisingly, it is still estimated to make landfall over the Hengchun Peninsula, very close to its first landfall.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1163
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Des Plaines, IL

#157 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:14 pm

Impressive storm! Scary that it's going to hit Taiwan again with possibly the same strength as before.
0 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12870
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#158 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:26 pm

Image

85 knots and expected to intensify to a major typhoon with 100 knots before it's second landfall!!


WTPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 21.0N 116.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 116.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.6N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.6N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.4N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.8N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 26.6N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 30.3N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 34.2N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 117.0E.
TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 37
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 252214Z SSMIS
IMAGE AND RECENT RADAR FIXES FROM HONG KONG. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
OF 85 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A 252332Z DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE
FROM PGTW AND RECENT AUTOMATED INTENSITY FIXES. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DEEPENING AROUND AN INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED, 20 NM EYE. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS SUPPORTED
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 15W IS TURNING EASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 15W WILL MOVE GENERALLY EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
UPCOMING 48 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE PROJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WILL CARRY TY
15W OVER TAIWAN BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. PRIOR TO LANDFALL, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL ENABLE THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY, PARTICULARLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LAND
INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF TAIWAN SHOULD WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE UNTIL IT REEMERGES OVER WATER TO THE NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN.
C. AFTER TAU 72, SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF TY
16W WILL EXERT AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON THE TRAJECTORY OF TY 15W
AND IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THE EXACT TRACK OF TY
15W DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN, DEPENDING UPON HOW
QUICKLY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF TY 16W AND HOW
MUCH TY 15W WEAKENS DURING ITS TRANSIT ACROSS TAIWAN. IF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY OR TY 15W WEAKENS MORE THAN
FORECAST DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY FOLLOW A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK INTO CENTRAL CHINA SOUTH OF SHANGHAI. DUE TO
THESE UNCERTAINTIES, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH NOW LIES SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS NEAR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12870
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#159 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:50 pm

Image


strengthening...

both 5.5 from PGTW and KNES...UW-CIMSS nearing category 4!

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 943.7mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.9 5.9
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9477
Age: 27
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#160 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:54 am

Scrolling down this page is like watching a horror movie...or a really bad sitcom. Yikes! Best of luck to them!
0 likes   
Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests