WPAC: TEMBIN - Extratropical

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Meow

WPAC: TEMBIN - Extratropical

#1 Postby Meow » Thu Aug 16, 2012 5:31 pm

Image

East-southeast of Taiwan.
Last edited by Meow on Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:40 am, edited 9 times in total.
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#2 Postby phwxenthusiast » Thu Aug 16, 2012 6:15 pm

been watching that area for 2 days now, looking really good this morning although the scatterometer passes didn't find a low-level circulation..
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#3 Postby Meow » Fri Aug 17, 2012 1:20 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.2N 125.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKI-JIMA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE, NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 20
KNOTS. A 170102Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS NO EVIDENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BUT DOES SHOW SHARP TROUGHING.
ADDITIONALLY, A 162338Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE DISORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE BUT SUGGESTS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER MAY BE DEVELOPING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A
TUTT CELL POSITIONED SOUTH OF JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT BUT LACK OF LOW-LEVEL ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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#4 Postby Meow » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:42 am

This is now a tropical depression.

Image

WWJP25 RJTD 170600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 170600.
...
SUMMARY.
...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 21N 126E ALMOST STATIONARY.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 10:42 am

Image

seems like this could become our 15th storm this season and areas threatened yet again if this doesn't recurve!
Last edited by euro6208 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 10:53 am

Image

euro developing this into a tropical storm but weakens it as it tracks north to china
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#7 Postby Meow » Fri Aug 17, 2012 12:02 pm

euro6208 wrote:Image

seems like this could become our 15th storm this season and areas threatened yet again if this doesn't recurve!

The 14th. 01W was not a tropical storm.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 12:23 pm

Meow wrote:The 14th. 01W was not a tropical storm.



i think you misread my post...i meant 15th tropical cyclone overall if this developed... :wink:
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#9 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Fri Aug 17, 2012 7:09 pm

As usual ECM's at odds with other models on the strength of this system. GFS and CMC both create quite a strong system out of this. Despite the proximity to land it will be lurking offshore for a few days so will certainly have time to spin up.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#10 Postby Meow » Fri Aug 17, 2012 9:17 pm

euro6208 wrote:i think you misread my post...i meant 15th tropical cyclone overall if this developed... :wink:

That is the 20th tropical cyclone.
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#11 Postby Meow » Fri Aug 17, 2012 9:19 pm

The JMA estimates the system will become a tropical storm within 24 hours.

Image

TD
Issued at 01:30 UTC, 18 August 2012

<Analyses at 18/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N19°00'(19.0°)
E126°00'(126.0°)
Direction and speed of movement S 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1008hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 19/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°30'(18.5°)
E124°30'(124.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 10:35 pm

Image

UPGRADED TO MEDIUM

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.2N
125.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH
OF ISHIGAKI-JIMA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP, PERSISTENT
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. A 171814Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. A 171457Z OSCAT IMAGE INDICATES A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEGUN TO TAKE FORM WITH 20-25
KNOT WIND BARBS 60 NM TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. WINDS NEAR
THE LLCC ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS RELAXED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC WITH
INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH CELL POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION, BETTER EVIDENCE OF A LLCC, AND
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 1:04 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.1N
124.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 124.8E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI)DEPICTS A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP,
PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A WEAKLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH APPEARS TO BE FULLY
EXPOSED IN MSI. A 180044Z ASCAT PASS MISSED THE LLCC BUT INDICATES
WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM ARE BETWEEN 15 TO 20
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS UNDER A REGION OF
GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) (15 TO 20 KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC WITH INCREASING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL POSITIONED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 10:34 am

Image

crawling near luzon...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 10:51 am

Image

taiwan?
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#16 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 10:58 am

close to depression status...now 1.0...

TXPQ22 KNES 181531
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 18/1432Z

C. 18.7N

D. 125.4E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM ORGANIZATION AND MICROWAVE SHOW 2.5/10 BANDING
YIELDING A DT=1.0. MET AND PAT ALSO 1.FT IS BASED ON DT. STONGEST
CONVECTION IN SE SEMICIRCLE.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#17 Postby Meow » Sat Aug 18, 2012 1:44 pm

euro6208 wrote:close to depression status...now 1.0...


If a system’s T number is 1.0, the JTWC will issue a TCFA instead of upgrading it to a tropical depression.

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 17.4N 124.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181730Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 124.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0N
124.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 124.8E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTORS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE EIR, ALONG WITH A SERIES OF SSMIS IMAGES (180929Z
AND 180933Z) SHOW A NOTICEABLE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED A COUPLE OF DEGREES POLEWARD OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS. ADDITIONALLY, MULTIPLE TROPICAL UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELLS CAN BE SEEN A FEW DEGREES NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. ANOTHER LARGER TUTT CELL RESIDES FURTHER TO
THE EAST, SOUTH OF JAPAN. THIS COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
CAUSING CONVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE LLCC AND
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS ESTIMATED AT 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS THE SMALLER TUTT CELLS SHOULD TRACK OFF TO THE WEST AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW MAY BECOME CONNECTED TO THE LARGER TUTT CELL WHICH
RESIDES FURTHER TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY. CURRENTLY, AN 181334Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES A LARGE FIELD
OF 20 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT RANGING
FROM 26-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EQUATORWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE MAKING A POLEWARD
TURN THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. DUE TO IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTION,
ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
191800Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#18 Postby P.K. » Sat Aug 18, 2012 2:36 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 18.1N 125.4E POOR
MOVE SW SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 17.7N 125.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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#19 Postby Caribwxgirl » Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:01 pm

Wow that system looks pretty huge!
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Meow

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby Meow » Sat Aug 18, 2012 8:59 pm

Tropical Storm Tembin

Image

TS 1214 (TEMBIN)
Issued at 01:00 UTC, 19 August 2012

<Analyses at 19/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°35'(17.6°)
E124°50'(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement SW Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 20/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°05'(18.1°)
E125°00'(125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 21/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°20'(20.3°)
E125°20'(125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 22/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°40'(22.7°)
E124°20'(124.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 370km(200NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)
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