WPAC: TEMBIN - Extratropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12946
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#101 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:20 am

busy working and it looks like i missed all the fun!!!

so tembin peaked at 115 knots category 4 huh? i think it was stronger so some postseason changes might do...we'll see...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12946
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#102 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:22 am

Image

Down to 100 knots but still a very powerful typhoon but expected to weaken as it nears taiwan!



WTPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 21.8N 125.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 125.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.6N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 23.2N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.7N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 24.0N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.2N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.9N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 23.5N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 125.1E.
TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND
221500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY, A
211146Z SSMIS IMAGE AND A 211232Z METOP-A IMAGE PROVIDE SOLID
EVIDENCE THAT TY 15W IS TURNING INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). ADDITIONALLY, THIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS LARGELY THE
RESULT OF INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAUSED BY A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING TUTT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A TUTT CELL OVER
SHIKOKU, OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND INTO ANOTHER
TUTT CELL LOCATED SOUTH OF TAIWAN. CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK DATA T
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 77 KNOTS (T4.5) WITH A CI OF
102 KNOTS (T5.5) FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON THE CI VALUES. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON MICROWAVE EYE FEATURES
EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS AND METOP-A IMAGES. TY 15W IS
TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 24. THE 21/00Z 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS
A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN CHINA, OVER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS
STRENGTHENING OVER AND SOUTH OF JAPAN. THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 24 AND WILL THEN TRACK INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN
ALLOWING THE STR TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO EASTERN CHINA AS ALL THE
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE. BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC
MODELS AND THEIR CONSISTENT, ACCURATE PERFORMANCE AS VERIFIED IN THE
ANALYSIS UPPER-AIR DATA, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK ALTHOUGH THERE IS POSSIBILITY THE SYSTEM MAY TURN
MORE SHARPLY WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN TAIWAN AS INDICATED BY THE
JGSM MODEL. DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN GRADUALLY UNTIL FIRST LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN THEN WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES TAIWAN AND TRACKS OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO MAKE SECOND LANDFALL AND
TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE FURTHER WEAKENING. THE BULK OF
THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE GFS MODEL; HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
INDICATE A POSSIBLE STALL NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG OR PERHAPS OFF THE
COAST OF CHINA. THE GFS MODEL HAS CONTINUED TO EXCESSIVELY WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN A STALL SOUTHWEST OF TAIWAN WITH BINARY
INTERACTION WITH TY 16W AFTER TAU 72. THE TWO SYSTEM CENTERS ARE
CURRENTLY SEPARATED BY 850 NM AND, BASED ON THE 21/12Z FORECASTS,
WILL APPROACH TO ABOUT 650-530 NM FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 120. UNLESS
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT TRACK CHANGE I.E., A LONGER QUASI-STATIONARY
PERIOD EAST OF TAIWAN, BINARY INTERACTION IS UNLIKELY. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12946
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#103 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:45 am

Image

recap of tembin...

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7889
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#104 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:06 pm

Really intense NW eyewall we have there.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
greenkat
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 161
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2012 12:19 pm
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

#105 Postby greenkat » Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:58 pm

Tembin is Cat 3 now. At least better than having a Cat 4 storm...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

Hope this helped ;)

User avatar
greenkat
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 161
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2012 12:19 pm
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

#106 Postby greenkat » Tue Aug 21, 2012 10:07 pm

He seems to be choking out his eyewall... Might not be as much of a problem as we previously thought. Hopefully eye will get smaller and smaller until it rips itself apart.

:uarrow: best case scenario.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

Hope this helped ;)

madness
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 41
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 11:23 pm
Location: Shanghai, China 中国上海市

Re:

#107 Postby madness » Wed Aug 22, 2012 12:38 am

[quote="phwxenthusiast"]Tembin continues to weaken surprisingly... ADT numbers have gone down below 5.0 although CI remains at 5.8

JTWC attributing the weakening to a nearby TUTT and seems confident the system will regain strength... i don't see dry air being a problem here; is it subsidence or has the anti-cyclone disappeared?? still some 24 hours over water though so still has a chance of becoming a cat 4 once again...

Thankfully, Taiwan will not be getting a super typhoon. Granted, a central pressure of 950HPa is severe and precautions must be taken but this is a much better scenario.
0 likes   

phwxenthusiast
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 635
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)

Re: Re:

#108 Postby phwxenthusiast » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:52 am

madness wrote:Thankfully, Taiwan will not be getting a super typhoon. Granted, a central pressure of 950HPa is severe and precautions must be taken but this is a much better scenario.


i think this has gone some eyewall replacement, comparing microwave images from yesterday and today.. JTWC never mentioned it in their prognostics AFAIK, but it kinda does seem that way (to my untrained eye that is LOL)... if my hunch is right, we could probably see one more round of intensification before landfall tomorrow...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   

madness
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 41
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 11:23 pm
Location: Shanghai, China 中国上海市

Re: Re:

#109 Postby madness » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:13 am

i think this has gone some eyewall replacement, comparing microwave images from yesterday and today.. JTWC never mentioned it in their prognostics AFAIK, but it kinda does seem that way (to my untrained eye that is LOL)... if my hunch is right, we could probably see one more round of intensification before landfall tomorrow...

JMA 0600Z agrees with your assessment with 955HPa forecast for landfall
Kaohsiung and surrounding areas should be well prepared just in case - don't underestimate the threat
0 likes   

Typhoon Hunter
WesternPacificWeather.com
WesternPacificWeather.com
Posts: 1214
Age: 34
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#110 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:26 am

Made it town of Chenggong, north of Taidong by about 60km. Looks like Tembin has consolidated somewhat after its weakening phase last night. Still expecting a windy landfall!
0 likes   
James - Documenting typhoons...

http://www.youtube.com/TyphoonHunter

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12946
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#111 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:37 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Made it town of Chenggong, north of Taidong by about 60km. Looks like Tembin has consolidated somewhat after its weakening phase last night. Still expecting a windy landfall!


Image

looks like jtwc website is down...but navy has tembin at 90 knots...very dangerous typhoon headed your way typhoon hunter...be safe...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

Meow

#112 Postby Meow » Wed Aug 22, 2012 8:19 am

This estimated track really shocks me... Affecting Taiwan for at least two days?

Image

TY 1214 (TEMBIN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 22 August 2012

<Analyses at 22/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°25'(22.4°)
E124°20'(124.3°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL80km(45NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 23/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°40'(22.7°)
E123°40'(123.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL180km(95NM)

<Forecast for 23/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°55'(22.9°)
E122°35'(122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 24/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°35'(22.6°)
E119°35'(119.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°55'(21.9°)
E117°40'(117.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12946
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#113 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 10:43 am

Image

taiwan is really gonna get soaked from tembin....

WTPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 22.4N 124.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 124.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.8N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.1N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.2N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 23.1N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.9N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 22.6N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.9N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 123.7E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
16W (BOLAVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CENTRALIZED CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH SEVERAL IDENTIFIABLE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
RADAR IMAGERY FROM TAIWAN HAS BEEN USEFUL IN IDENTIFYING THE CURRENT
LOCATION OF THE LLCC AS THE CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM HAS MADE IT
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY IN THE LOOPING INFRARED IMAGERY. THE TRACK
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE, A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH, HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY A TRANSITING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED
OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW TOWARDS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN HONSHU HAS STARTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS ALSO STARTED TO
OUTPACE TY 15W TO THE WEST, CAUSING A REDUCTION IN EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE REGION
REMAIN FAVORABLE (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 85 KNOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OBSERVED DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION AS DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN
STEADY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS FROM PGTW. BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITIONING AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR THROUGH TAU 36. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CHINA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR AN
EXTENSION OF THE STR TO BUILD WESTWARD, LINKING TO A SECOND STR
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CHINA. THIS WILL TURN TY 15W TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST BY TAU 48. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY
UNDER FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH AMPLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
SUPPORT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY TAU 30 TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL WITH TAIWAN AND WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN TO LOW TYPHOON
STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT ENTERS THE TAIWAN STRAIT. DECREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 15W WILL SLOWLY TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TY 16W (BOLAVEN) WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST, LEADING TO AN INCREASED BINARY INTERACTION. THIS INTERACTION
HAS MADE THE EXTENDED FORECAST DIFFICULT AS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME
HIGHLY SPREAD BEYOND TAU 48. WBAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CROSSING
OVER NORTHERN TAIWAN AND QUICKLY TRACKING INTO CHINA. GFS AND NGPS
INDICATE A LOOP TO THE SOUTH AND BACK TOWARDS THE APPROACHING TY
16W. GFDN QUICKLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN TAIWAN TOWARDS
HONG KONG AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED TO A SOUTHERN LOOP SIMILAR TO NGPS WITHIN THE PAST
12 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU
48, BUT THEN SLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA,
AS THE EXPECTATION OF A STRONG BINARY INTERACTION AS DEPICTED IN
NGPS AND GFS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AS THE SEPARATION DISTANCE WILL BE
ON THE ORDER OF 500 NM BY TAU 72, AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE BEYOND
TAU 72. BASED ON THE HIGHLY VARIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12946
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#114 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:10 am

Image

taiwan is extremely lucky tembin isn't as strong (category 4) as it had been when it was off luzon but a category 2 is still very dangerous..outer rainbands are already affecting taiwan...looks like flooding will be an issue as tembin is forecast to very slowly track towards the island and into the south china sea...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

Typhoon Hunter
WesternPacificWeather.com
WesternPacificWeather.com
Posts: 1214
Age: 34
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#115 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:36 pm

Uh oh, Tembin looks to be undergoing another round of explosive intensification. Eye has completely cleared out in the last 1.5 hours.

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
James - Documenting typhoons...

http://www.youtube.com/TyphoonHunter

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2594
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#116 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 6:12 pm

Yes, the eye is very clear right now.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

phwxenthusiast
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 635
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)

#117 Postby phwxenthusiast » Wed Aug 22, 2012 6:14 pm

:uarrow: indeed... as i was saying last night, it looks like Tembin was able to sort out the issues that weakened her yesterday... the eyewall looks really good again, and the eye is clearing out on satellite... good luck out there James!

Image
0 likes   

Meow

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#118 Postby Meow » Wed Aug 22, 2012 10:01 pm

euro6208 wrote:taiwan is extremely lucky tembin isn't as strong (category 4) as it had been when it was off luzon but a category 2 is still very dangerous..outer rainbands are already affecting taiwan...looks like flooding will be an issue as tembin is forecast to very slowly track towards the island and into the south china sea...


Lucky?

Image
 
WTPN31 PGTW 230300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// 
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 
RMKS/ 
1. TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 017     
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC 
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE 
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
    --- 
   WARNING POSITION: 
   230000Z --- NEAR 22.5N 123.6E 
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS 
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM 
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE 
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: 
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT 
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 123.6E 
    --- 
   FORECASTS: 
   12 HRS, VALID AT: 
   231200Z --- 22.7N 122.5E 
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT 
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS 
    --- 
   24 HRS, VALID AT: 
   240000Z --- 22.8N 121.1E 
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT 
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS 
    --- 
   36 HRS, VALID AT: 
   241200Z --- 22.9N 119.7E 
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT 
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS 
    --- 
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 
   48 HRS, VALID AT: 
   250000Z --- 22.5N 118.6E 
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT 
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS 
    --- 
   72 HRS, VALID AT: 
   260000Z --- 21.9N 118.1E 
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT 
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS 
    --- 
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: 
    --- 
   96 HRS, VALID AT: 
   270000Z --- 21.2N 118.5E 
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT 
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS 
    --- 
   120 HRS, VALID AT: 
   280000Z --- 21.8N 119.4E 
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT 
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
    --- 
REMARKS: 
230300Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 123.3E. 
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTHEAST OF  
TAI PEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX  
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT  
WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON  
16W (BOLAVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// 
NNNN
Last edited by Meow on Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2784
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#119 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Aug 22, 2012 10:27 pm

^lot worrisome if ECM run pans out. though i can't imagine this storm intensifying again after hitting Taiwan with the large Bolaven nearby. I thought the outflow from the other cyclone can disrupt the circulation. still that's a possible one blow after another scenario for Taiwan!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1394
Age: 25
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#120 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:34 pm

Image

this is no category 2 anymore in my amateur eye.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests