WPAC: TEMBIN - Extratropical

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Meow

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#81 Postby Meow » Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:59 am

90 knots (JMA)

Image

TY 1214 (TEMBIN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 20 August 2012

<Analyses at 20/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N18°50'(18.8°)
E125°10'(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slowly
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 21/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°20'(21.3°)
E125°50'(125.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 22/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°00'(23.0°)
E124°05'(124.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 23/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°55'(23.9°)
E121°40'(121.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 310km(170NM)
Storm warning area ALL460km(250NM)
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#82 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:22 am

its now 110 knots as for jtwc

WTPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 125.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.1N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.3N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.2N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.7N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.2N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 23.2N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.3N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 125.1E.
TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z,
210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W
(BOLAVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
to peak at 125 knots
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Meow

#83 Postby Meow » Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:20 am

From the HKO (also using 10-min sustained winds):

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 201200 UTC, Severe Typhoon Tembin (1214) with central pressure 940 hectopascals was centred within 10 nautical miles of one eight point nine degrees north (18.9 N) one two five point one degrees east (125.1 E) and is forecast to move north at about 6 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 95 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 90 nautical miles.
Radius of over 47 knot winds 45 nautical miles.
Radius of over 63 knot winds 30 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 120 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 211200 UTC
Two one point four degrees north (21.4 N)
One two five point zero degrees east (125.0 E)
Maximum winds 100 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 221200 UTC
Two two point eight degrees north (22.8 N)
One two three point eight degrees east (123.8 E)
Maximum winds 105 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 231200 UTC
Two three point three degrees north (23.3 N)
One two one point eight degrees east (121.8 E)
Maximum winds 110 knots.

:double:
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#84 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Aug 20, 2012 2:46 pm

its now 115 knots and is going to peak at 130 knots. SUPERTYPHOON, will be the 2nd this year
WTPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 125.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.8N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.7N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 22.5N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.9N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.3N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 23.3N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.4N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 125.3E.
TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN
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Meow

#85 Postby Meow » Mon Aug 20, 2012 7:57 pm

Will Tembin become the first violent typhoon in 2012?

Image

TY 1214 (TEMBIN)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 21 August 2012

<Analyses at 21/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N20°00'(20.0°)
E125°10'(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 21/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°10'(21.2°)
E125°10'(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 22/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°20'(22.3°)
E124°30'(124.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 23/00 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N22°40'(22.7°)
E122°25'(122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 24/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°40'(22.7°)
E119°00'(119.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#86 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:02 pm

First visible.

Image
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#87 Postby madness » Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:21 pm

I don't like this at all - if JMA is correct then Kaohsiung will be hit by a category 4 strength typhoon. The 2nd largest city in Taiwan with a population of 2.9 million.

And, the typhoon to be approaching the Guangdong coastline (China) with a central pressure of 940HPa. This is bad...
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#88 Postby zaqxsw75050 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:40 pm

Looks like the storm may heading to Hong Kong according to JMA's latest track...
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#89 Postby madness » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:03 pm

zaqxsw75050 wrote:Looks like the storm may heading to Hong Kong according to JMA's latest track...

Based on the JMA update from 0000Z / 8am CST, Hong Kong will have signal no 8 but the centre of the system will not hit HK
But, don't put too much faith in this just yet. There is a very large tracking error, we will have to wait to see how the mountains in Taiwan change the trajectory.
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#90 Postby whetherornot » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:10 pm

Before it 'gets' us in Kaohsiung, Tembin needs to climb some mountains. However, Taiwan is narrower here on forecast track than Central part. Also, if it maintains this intensity, it may not be an obstacle.

Is there any possibly Tembin could get 'stuck' over land like Morakot?

James, are you now going to Kaohsiung, then presumably Taidong?
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Re:

#91 Postby madness » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:51 pm

whetherornot wrote:Before it 'gets' us in Kaohsiung, Tembin needs to climb some mountains. However, Taiwan is narrower here on forecast track than Central part. Also, if it maintains this intensity, it may not be an obstacle.

Is there any possibly Tembin could get 'stuck' over land like Morakot?

James, are you now going to Kaohsiung, then presumably Taidong?


The forward speed of Tembin is so high it will have no difficulty crossing the mountains.
The mountains may cause wobbles in the trajectory, personally im hoping for a miracle and somehow it does a loop-to-loop along the east coast but this is unrealistic

This means the total rainfall will not be high, maybe 500mm? Unlike Morakot which was moving extremely slowly
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Re:

#92 Postby Meow » Tue Aug 21, 2012 12:16 am

madness wrote:I don't like this at all - if JMA is correct then Kaohsiung will be hit by a category 4 strength typhoon. The 2nd largest city in Taiwan with a population of 2.9 million.

The estimated track of Tembin is similar to Fanapi... People in Kaohsiung should really pay attention.
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#93 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Tue Aug 21, 2012 12:19 am

Wind is rarely a problem in Taiwan, it's the rain and since Tembin is small and should cross at relatively "normal" speed I'm not expecting too much trouble island wide. The immediate landfall zone will of course be an extremely hazardous environment!

I'm flying to Taipei this afternoon and will start journey south tomorrow morning!

See forecast disclaimer above (on iPad at moment!)
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#94 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Aug 21, 2012 12:41 am

the western section of the eyewall is so intense ,
Image
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#95 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Aug 21, 2012 2:46 am

Beautiful, but terrible for Taiwan if the forecasts hold together.

Image
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#96 Postby Meow » Tue Aug 21, 2012 3:43 am

The first typhoon warning of Tembin from the CWB.

Image

07fW40213
WTCI RCTP 210600 =
WARNING VALID 220600Z =
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS =
TYPHOON 201214 (TEMBIN 201214) WARNING =
POSITION 210600Z AT TWO ONE POINT ZERO NORTH ( 21.0N ) ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR EAST ( 125.4E ) =
MOVEMENT NEXT 24HRS NNW BECOMING WNW 11KM/HR
MIN SURFACE PRESSURE 945 HPA =
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTER 45 METER PER SECOND GUST 55 METER PER SECOND =
RADIUS OF OVER 15M/S WINDS 180 KM =
FORECAST POSITION =
12HRS VALID AT 211800Z AT TWO TWO POINT TWO NORTH ( 22.2N ) ONE TWO FIVE POINT ONE EAST ( 125.1E )=
24HRS VALID AT 220600Z AT TWO TWO POINT SEVEN NORTH ( 22.7N ) ONE TWO FOUR POINT ONE EAST ( 124.1E )=
48HRS VALID AT 230600Z AT TWO THREE POINT TWO NORTH ( 23.2N ) ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE EAST ( 121.9E )=
72HRS VALID AT 240600Z AT TWO THREE POINT THREE NORTH ( 23.3N ) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO EAST ( 119.0E )=
SEA WARNING AREA =
THE SEA OF NORTHEAST TAIWAN, THE SEA OF SOUTHEAST TAIWAN, BASHI CHANNEL =
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#97 Postby madness » Tue Aug 21, 2012 3:57 am

Now the JMA 5-day track has shifted much further west than earlier today
Two intense typhoons will be close enough to influence each other and we will see the Fujiwhara effect.
This is creating a complex environment and we will probably see great variations in the 5-day track
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#98 Postby ManilaTC » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:33 am

JMA's 5 day forecast is now calling for a Fuijwhara binary interaction!

Image
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#99 Postby phwxenthusiast » Tue Aug 21, 2012 5:42 am

Tembin continues to weaken surprisingly... ADT numbers have gone down below 5.0 although CI remains at 5.8

JTWC attributing the weakening to a nearby TUTT and seems confident the system will regain strength... i don't see dry air being a problem here; is it subsidence or has the anti-cyclone disappeared?? still some 24 hours over water though so still has a chance of becoming a cat 4 once again...

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Meow

#100 Postby Meow » Tue Aug 21, 2012 8:40 am

Tembin weakened slightly.

Image

TY 1214 (TEMBIN)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 21 August 2012

<Analyses at 21/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N22°00'(22.0°)
E125°10'(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL80km(45NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 22/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°40'(22.7°)
E124°30'(124.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 22/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°05'(23.1°)
E123°20'(123.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 23/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°05'(23.1°)
E121°10'(121.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 24/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°05'(23.1°)
E118°05'(118.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)
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