ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 16, 2012 10:57 pm

Wave off West Africa.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208170358
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012081700, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942012
AL, 94, 2012081606, , BEST, 0, 106N, 120W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012081612, , BEST, 0, 107N, 136W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012081618, , BEST, 0, 109N, 155W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012081700, , BEST, 0, 110N, 172W, 20, 1010, DB, 34

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest


Thread that was the topic at Talking Tropics forum for this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113357&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
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#2 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:16 pm

haha well I guess Im right there with the nhc !

very strange time of night for them make an invest out of it.. although given its appearance and model support I fully understand.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L

#3 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:32 pm

this guy snuck up on me....INVEST right after splash down and low lat also....might make it across the pond...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:35 pm

Now let's see what % NHC gives 94L at the 2 AM TWO. I go with 30%.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L

#5 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:Now let's see what % NHC gives 94L at the 2 AM TWO. I go with 30%.



good call....Luis....PR has got to watch this one...
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ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#6 Postby hurricanetrack » Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:59 pm

Kind of hard to imagine that the same pattern would be in place for so many seasons in a row - allowing only Irene to get past the proverbial goalie. No matter, I always think of Frances in 2004 and how so many people wrote it off immediately as "going fishing". Look how that turned out. The pattern could change just enough but it is really tough to see that happening since we've in this re-curve rut for so long. I guess we will just have to watch and wait it out....
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#7 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 17, 2012 12:06 am

is this that huge low that the GFS has been showing in the last several runs at the end?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L

#8 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 17, 2012 12:08 am

This looks like its currently part of the ITCZ and until it can disconnect it will take a little more time strengthening which would possibly make this get picked up a little by the weakness, but the weakness in the ridge that the models have will have closed up and 94l gets left behind and that would be a possibly ugly scenerio, I would like to see the ridge trough position take this far away from anyone.

My forecast is

current 11N 17.2W 25mph
12 hrs 11.5N 20W 35mph
24hrs 11.8N 23W 45mph
36hrs 12.2N 25.5W 60mph
48hrs 12.5N 28W 70mph
72hrs 13.5N 33W 85mph
96hrs 13.8N 37W 90mph
120hrs 14.5N 40W 105mph


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Re:

#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 17, 2012 12:10 am

Hammy wrote:is this that huge low that the GFS has been showing in the last several runs at the end?


Yes,is this system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L

#10 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 17, 2012 12:30 am

geez luis that looks like 3 systems. Biggest invest I have ever seen...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L

#11 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 17, 2012 12:41 am

NHC starts with 10%.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.


Image
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#12 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 17, 2012 5:11 am

On the face of it this one should recurve a decent way away from the US and even the Caribbean...however I don't know why but I've just got a feeling this one will be getting alot closer to both mentioned areas than most models are showing.

Anyway this system is indeed heavily connected to the ITCZ, very convectivly active however at the moment which bodes well down the line.

I think this has a good chance of being a major hurricane, conditions over the W.Atlantic look the best I've seen this season in 7-10 days time.
Last edited by KWT on Fri Aug 17, 2012 5:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#13 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 17, 2012 5:58 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 170603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE MOST RECENT RAWINSONDE DATA FOR BAMAKO IN MALI SHOW
THAT A TROPICAL WAVE HAS PASSED THAT STATION DURING THE LAST
48 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST A COMPARATIVELY LOWER AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS
ALONG 17W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W...AND
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W. THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO
IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
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#14 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 17, 2012 6:02 am

First appareance on SSD...

17/0545 UTC 11.6N 18.5W TOO WEAK 94L
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#15 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 17, 2012 6:04 am

Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
:rarrow: http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... index.html

Aug 16, 2012 10:34 pm ET

ATLANTIC

- Models continue to key on a tropical wave and low pressure system now coming off Africa as having a high probability of becoming a tropical cyclone as it traverses the Atlantic. Those projections also continue to show the system not making the journey all the way across to North America.
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#16 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 17, 2012 6:20 am

Shouldn't be a rapid developer, looks like it'll tug along to the west for at least the next 72-96hrs, after that there is now some major divergence in solutions, going to be hard to call.

Either way I think this will be at the very least a Bermuda threat down the line, even if it does curve NW/NNW earlier like the more easterly models.
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rainstorm

#17 Postby rainstorm » Fri Aug 17, 2012 6:28 am

for what its worth JB isnt buying the recurve scenario. says east coast watch out labor day weekend.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L

#18 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 17, 2012 6:37 am

8 AM TWO stays at 10%

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
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rainstorm

#19 Postby rainstorm » Fri Aug 17, 2012 6:45 am

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Weatherbell video shows method behind my madness I dont believe GFS recurve for pattern dictates sw atlantic basin, w gulf nxt w
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41m Joe Bastardi Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Gordon to be Eyesore near the Azores in 3 days,head for Spain after.Tropics active Aug 20-Sept 10. East coast place to watch by LD weekend
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#20 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 17, 2012 6:48 am

I think whilst I do favour the recurve solution (around 65W would be my punt right now, much further west than the GFS starts it) I wouldn't rule out a threat to the east coast. I'd have thought its more of a threat to NS/Newfoundland and Bermuda though.
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