ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

Issac is just a horrible name to give to a hurricane, IMO....since the 1900 storm that killed 9,000 people has been unofficially named Issac for the local weather guy on the island at that time. Still surpasses loss of life in all natural disasters for the US to date...including Katrina

Why haven't they retired the name Issac? Don't they usually retire them if they've been that severe? or do they only retire it for a certain amount of years?

the official name was the 1900 storm...not Issac...many books out that unofficially name it Issac....but I digress, this looks like it could be a very large system...unless pieces break off to form others...


he is right...have the book sitting right next to me for the last 10 years....

[cycloneye]

Here is this afternoon's discussion of 94L by Rob of CrownWeather.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Invest 94L:
I am also keeping tabs on a tropical wave, designated Invest 94L, that is located just off of the coast of Africa this afternoon. Development into a tropical storm is likely over the next few days. Currently, this tropical wave is tracking westward at between 15 and 20 mph and I do believe that this could be a real concern to the northeastern Caribbean islands by this time next week (next Friday). Even though the latest forecast guidance, including the GFS and European models turn this northwestward before reaching the northeast Caribbean, the forecast track continue to shift further west with each new forecast run. This trend towards a formidable threat to the northeast Caribbean in about 7 days from now is one that needs to be monitored very closely.

So, here are my thoughts: I think Invest 94L will take a generally westward track right through at least Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. After that, the strength of the high pressure system to this system’s north may weaken some allowing for a more west-northwest and northwest track. Last night’s European model ends up bringing this system very close to the northernmost Leeward Islands in 10 days from now and I am not sold at all that this will turn out to sea and not at least threaten the Lesser Antilles, Bermuda, the Canadian Maritimes and possibly the US East Coast in the 10 to 15 day timeframe.

As for strength, it seems extremely likely that this will become a tropical storm and given the favorable environment ahead of 94L, it seems very possible that this will become a hurricane by about the middle part of next week.

I will be monitoring Invest 94L closely and will keep you all updated

http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7069

[cycloneye]

Kind of hard to imagine that the same pattern would be in place for so many seasons in a row - allowing only Irene to get past the proverbial goalie. No matter, I always think of Frances in 2004 and how so many people wrote it off immediately as "going fishing". Look how that turned out. The pattern could change just enough but it is really tough to see that happening since we've in this re-curve rut for so long. I guess we will just have to watch and wait it out....

Mark,this pattern really has slowed down your chases of hurricanes in the past few years with the exception of Irene. Let's see if things change down the road and you travel to do some chasing this season.

[KWT]

Very good forecast from Crown-weather there. I think this system is the sort that you'd be very foolish to rule anything out. As I said before, I certainly am happy to nail my myself to the recurve mast before but this time I'm going to say this one needs very close watching, just a few hints that this is a BIG threat and given its forward speed and relative poor structure, I can't see it getting to the north of the Caribbean without going through them at some point...

[Aric Dunn]

That was a major westward shift in the Euro. really interesting was the westward bend after the trough lifts out...

[KWT]

Yep Aric, an upper high is building in over the NE states, something that the extended Euros have been keen on from what I've heard from people....maybe thats why Joe B has been highlighting a heightened threat to the US between now and say the 10th September.

[hcane27]

Since 1851 according to the NHC there have been 12 systems that have passed within 5 degrees of the current 94L in the month of August. Of the 12 , 1 has reached the U.S. coastline , in 1933 making landfall along the North Carolina , Virginia border. Therefore , statistically speaking , this system would have a 1 in 12 chance , or 8.3 % chance of making it to the U.S. As for the Caribbean , 0 have made it into the area. Therefore , statistically speaking . this system has a 0 in 12 chance , or 0 % of making it to the Caribbean. Interestingly enough , if the system remains at the same latitiude 5 degrees further west , of the 16 systems , 3 make landfall in the U.S. , with a 4th in Mexico. 1915 had a storm strike the upper Texas coast , again 1933 in the mid-Atlantic , 1981 Dennis in south Florida , and 2007 with Dean into the Yucatan and southern Mexico.

Are the stats based on developed TD's or TS at 94's position? If yes, likely many recurves in eastern Atlantic. If 94L takes longer to deepen it will move westerly and the impact chances increase.

The systems referenced are those that gained at least TD status. I apologize for having left that out.

[KWT]

I'm willing to bet that by the time this one does get going, that list is going to contain many more systems that have been landfallers!

[SunnyThoughts]

Issac is just a horrible name to give to a hurricane, IMO....since the 1900 storm that killed 9,000 people has been unofficially named Issac for the local weather guy on the island at that time. Still surpasses loss of life in all natural disasters for the US to date...including Katrina

Why haven't they retired the name Issac? Don't they usually retire them if they've been that severe? or do they only retire it for a certain amount of years?

CZ,

Actually the 1900 hurricane did not officially have a name. Like Rock said, it is locally called Isaac because of Isaac Cline, who was the NWS meteorologist on Galveston at the time, and who is famous for trying to warn the island that a hurricane was coming, which many did not heed. A book actually came out called "Isaac's Storm" about the hurricane and his efforts. He lost his entire family in that storm.

There is also a documentary complete with actors portraying the events of the 1900 hurricane. I believe it is also called "isaac's Storm"..not completely sure of the title though. Was riveting to watch though if you guys can find it. Its on the net, because I watched it on my computer a year or so ago.

[KWT]

Perhaps worth noting that quite a few GFS ensembles are now taking this system VERY close to the E.Caribbean, some as hurricanes.

I get the feeling that when eventually this does develop, the E.Caribbean will be in the cone, especially as the models are still trending west...

[OuterBanker]

We here in eastern NC don't particulary care for the letter I.

After Isabel and Irene we were thinking of banning the letter altogether.

It's not used in the south much anyway (ask someone from Louisiana to pronounce the word "oil" and you will understand).

[KWT]

Well the models do seem to have shifted westwards, the threat level to the E.CAribbean and especially the lesser Antilies has really increased in the last 12hrs. Just need to hope that the system struggles to come together like the ECM run.

I'm really struggling to see how this won't roll through the NE/E Caribbean, there is a weakness present on all models, but whether its enough I'm not sure.

[BigB0882]

There is also a documentary complete with actors portraying the events of the 1900 hurricane. I believe it is also called "isaac's Storm"..not completely sure of the title though. Was riveting to watch though if you guys can find it. Its on the net, because I watched it on my computer a year or so ago.

Is this it? Full length in one video on Youtube, not bad. I always hate having to find all 10 parts when things get split up:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uz2GvDJHMg

[SunnyThoughts]

There is also a documentary complete with actors portraying the events of the 1900 hurricane. I believe it is also called "isaac's Storm"..not completely sure of the title though. Was riveting to watch though if you guys can find it. Its on the net, because I watched it on my computer a year or so ago.

Is this it? Full length in one video on Youtube, not bad. I always hate having to find all 10 parts when things get split up:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uz2GvDJHMg[/quote

this is it http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uz2GvDJHMg lol yep, sorry You had it correct. It's very informative for anyone interested in learning about the details of the 1900 Galveston Hurricane.

[cycloneye]

This is this evening's discussion about 94L by Dr Jeff Masters.

94L a potential threat to the Lesser Antilles

A large tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa Thursday night, and was designated Invest 94L by NHC this Friday morning. The models have been impressed this system, and develop it into a tropical storm by the middle of next week. The latest set of 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs are divided on how far west 94L will make it before curving more to the northwest. The ECMWF model keeps 94L weak for the next 5 - 6 days, and has progressively been bringing the storm closer to the Lesser Antilles Islands with each successive run. The ECMWF predicts 94L will pass very close to the northern Lesser Antilles August 24 - 25 as a weak tropical storm. The 12Z GFS model predicted recurvature of 94L well to the east of the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda, but the latest 18Z run has the storm plowing through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, August 23, as a strong tropical storm, then becoming a hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean. Given that our two top models for forecasting hurricane tracks are increasingly showing a threat to the Lesser Antilles, residents of the islands should pay close attention to the progress of 94L. The eventual track of 94L will depend on the strength of the storm over the next seven days, which is difficult to forecast, since 94L will have the usual trouble with dry air to the north from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL.) With the models changing their tune drastically from run to run, its tough to say what land areas might be most at risk from the storm in the long term. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday afternoon.

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[KWT]

A slight upgrade on this systems developmental chances within 48hrs. I think probably there is a decent chance of an upgrade right towards the back end of that period.

The fact that the models are shifting westwards would make me more concered in both the E. and C.Caribbean.

[floridasun78]

look at area front of 94l got spin too i think train left afica we hope we ready for heart of hurr season

[Aric Dunn]

very likely to a td tomorrow at some point. if not then sunday morning.

[Caribwxgirl]

I don't understand these things too well but do you think we should be focusing on the front portion rather than the back as is currently the case?