ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#8701 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 04, 2012 11:38 am

superstareporter wrote:I cant find anywhere that mentions where the remnants are right now, and where they are predicted to emerge into water :) HELP!


I believe the remnant LLC is over Alabama right now and drifting southward. Most of the moisture is up in the mid-Atlantic though.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Tue Sep 04, 2012 11:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#8702 Postby Janie2006 » Tue Sep 04, 2012 11:38 am

cycloneye wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:the 00z models are more aggressive on what appears to be issac remnants somewhere in the eastern gulf/western atlantic. the euro does eastern gulf along with the cmc. going to be interesting.


That is why this thread has remained here and not already in the archieves forum. :) Although there may be a debate about if is going to be Issac remnants.


Along with debates about model runs and "tails gone wild" we'll have ourselves another debate about NHC semantics! Assuming anything happens, of course.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#8703 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Sep 04, 2012 11:41 am

it look like remain of ISAAC is over north fl moving south that could area to watch http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/ir4-l.jpg
Last edited by tolakram on Tue Sep 04, 2012 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed direct image embed
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#8704 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 04, 2012 11:47 am

This helps a lot in determining:

SPC AC 041630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT TUE SEP 04 2012

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR GRT
LKS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS/UPR
MS VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF
CST REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN TIER THROUGH
WED AS ELONGATED RIDGE PERSIST FROM THE DESERT SW TO THE LWR MS VLY.
ELSEWHERE...ELONGATED VORT NOW OVER THE AL-GA BORDER...LARGELY THE
REMNANT OF FORMER TC ISAAC...IS EXPECTED TO DROP S OR SSW WHILE UPR
LOW NOW NEARING MIAMI CORRESPONDINGLY PIVOTS NNWWD JUST OFF THE E FL
CST.


LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE NOW OVER MI SHOULD CONTINUE E TO THE LWR
GRT LKS LATER TODAY...FOSTERING DIURNALLY ENHANCED...POSSIBLY SVR
STORMS OVER PARTS NY/PA/OH. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPSTREAM IMPULSE NOW
ENTERING NW MT SHOULD AMPLIFY ESE ACROSS THE NRN PLNS LATER
TODAY/TNGT...AND REACH MN EARLY WED. THIS FEATURE...AND A WEAKER
DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF IT...MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SVR STORMS OVER THE N CNTRL STATES BETWEEN NOW AND WED.
FINALLY...AFTN HEATING EXPECTED TO REJUVENATE STORM DEVELOPMENT ON
SWRN FRINGE OF AL/GA VORT...WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY POSSIBLY
BECOMING SVR.

...NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY THROUGH WED MORNING...
STRONG SFC HEATING...LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG WEAK CONFLUENCE
FEATURES...AND ASCENT WITH LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
NRN PLNS MAY SUPPORT STRONG TO SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN/SRN MN
AND WRN WI LATER TODAY. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE
FOR BOTH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND. A CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL
ALSO WILL EXIST FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING
MCS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR DMGG WIND.

FARTHER W...MORE SCTD STORMS MAY FORM LATE THIS AFTN ALONG WEAK
CONFLUENCE FEATURE IN THE ERN DAKOTAS/NRN NEB. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
STORMS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION EWD INTO SRN MN AND
NRN IA LATE TNGT/EARLY WED AS AMPLIFYING MT TROUGH APPROACHES
REGION. STRENGTH OF FLOW /WITH 700 MB SPEEDS AOA 50 KTS/ AND
AVAILABILITY OF RICH MOISTURE ON NWRN FRINGE OF DEVELOPING LLJ
SUGGEST POTENTIAL EVOLUTION INTO A SIZABLE MCS...POSSIBLY ONE
CONTAINING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH HIGH
WIND/HAIL THAT COULD PERSIST ACROSS REGION BEYOND 12Z WED.

...LWR GRT LKS THIS AFTN...
ASCENT WITH MI UPR IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW
FROM THE OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE TSTM COVERAGE/STRENGTH
OVER PARTS OF OH...PA...AND NY LATER TODAY...ALONG AND AHEAD OF WEAK
COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN ONT TO NW OH. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY IN OH...AND LOW-LVL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK. BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL TIL EARLY EVE.

...CNTRL GULF CST THIS AFTN/EVE...
SFC HEATING ON WRN AND SWRN FRINGE OF REMNANT UPR VORT FROM ISAAC
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CNTRL/ERN MS SSE
TO THE CNTRL GULF CST LATER TODAY...DESPITE THE FACT THAT REGION
LARGELY WILL BE EXPERIENCING NEUTRAL OVER EVEN NEGATIVE DCVA. RICH
LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND MODERATELY VEERING DEEP WIND PROFILES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN FOSTER SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL OR TWO POSING A RISK FOR DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TNGT.

...S FL THIS AFTN...
COOL MID LVL TEMPS AND WEAK UPR DIVERGENCE ON WRN FRINGE OF OFFSHORE
LOW MAY YIELD AN ENHANCED RISK FOR A FEW PULSE STORMS WITH LOCALLY
DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL THROUGH LATE AFTN IN S FL.

...CNTRL/SRN PLNS...
ISOLD SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN/EVE INVOF WEAK W-E
BOUNDARY IN SRN/WRN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION...WHERE STEEP
LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST BENEATH MODEST DEEP
FLOW/FORCING FOR ASCENT.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 09/04/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1646Z (12:46PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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#8705 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Sep 04, 2012 11:54 am

Another way is to take a look at the wind map:

http://hint.fm/wind/

You can see where the sharp trough is, looks like the llc is no longer closed.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#8706 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 04, 2012 11:57 am

Isaac about to splash down once again in the GOM....Low level convergence further west also. Light shear....IMO our next invest!!

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
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#8707 Postby Janie2006 » Tue Sep 04, 2012 11:58 am

^^ Now *that* is one cool map! Added to favourites.

We're looking at surface level winds,yes?
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Re:

#8708 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:02 pm

Janie2006 wrote:^^ Now *that* is one cool map! Added to favourites.

We're looking at surface level winds,yes?



I look at 850vort, shear, shear tendency, Low level convergence and Upper level divergence, also that map can show you current steering layers depending on how deep a storm is. ect ect...a must have in favorites if you track TCs...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#8709 Postby Janie2006 » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:20 pm

Assuming for the moment the MCS does shift offshore into a favourable environment for development...it won't have much time to get its act together because of the rather rapidly evolving situation upstream. Longwave troughing develops over the east by Friday, sending a strong cold front into the Great Plains. The front doesn't stall, it sweeps all the way to the coast by Sunday, so anything that happens to be brewing in the NE Gulf gets swept to the northeast....per the current model data over the CONUS.


All in my rather humble opinion, of course.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#8710 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:26 pm

Janie2006 wrote:Assuming for the moment the MCS does shift offshore into a favourable environment for development...it won't have much time to get its act together because of the rather rapidly evolving situation upstream. Longwave troughing develops over the east by Friday, sending a strong cold front into the Great Plains. The front doesn't stall, it sweeps all the way to the coast by Sunday, so anything that happens to be brewing in the NE Gulf gets swept to the northeast....per the current model data over the CONUS.


All in my rather humble opinion, of course.



true that cut off low over Ohio dives pretty deep..should sweep it out..but the further south / west it gets and delays development..then we might have another player........I dont think the cold front gets to off the coast of Texas before moving back up....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#8711 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:39 pm

ROCK wrote:
Janie2006 wrote:Assuming for the moment the MCS does shift offshore into a favourable environment for development...it won't have much time to get its act together because of the rather rapidly evolving situation upstream. Longwave troughing develops over the east by Friday, sending a strong cold front into the Great Plains. The front doesn't stall, it sweeps all the way to the coast by Sunday, so anything that happens to be brewing in the NE Gulf gets swept to the northeast....per the current model data over the CONUS.


All in my rather humble opinion, of course.



true that cut off low over Ohio dives pretty deep..should sweep it out..but the further south / west it gets and delays development..then we might have another player........I dont think the cold front gets to off the coast of Texas before moving back up....


well if you look at the 00z euro it keeps it over water for nearly 3 days.. the 12 cmc today actually leaves it behind in the gulf instead of out over florida right away. even the gfs has it although weak over the gulf waters for 3 days. plenty of time to become a TS again.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#8712 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:41 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
ROCK wrote:
Janie2006 wrote:Assuming for the moment the MCS does shift offshore into a favourable environment for development...it won't have much time to get its act together because of the rather rapidly evolving situation upstream. Longwave troughing develops over the east by Friday, sending a strong cold front into the Great Plains. The front doesn't stall, it sweeps all the way to the coast by Sunday, so anything that happens to be brewing in the NE Gulf gets swept to the northeast....per the current model data over the CONUS.


All in my rather humble opinion, of course.



true that cut off low over Ohio dives pretty deep..should sweep it out..but the further south / west it gets and delays development..then we might have another player........I dont think the cold front gets to off the coast of Texas before moving back up....


well if you look at the 00z euro it keeps it over water for nearly 3 days.. the 12 cmc today actually leaves it behind in the gulf instead of out over florida right away. even the gfs has it although weak over the gulf waters for 3 days. plenty of time to become a TS again.




agreed,,,,very similar to the IVAN II scenario....would be cool to hear that discussion at the NHC about what to call it if it did develope....
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#8713 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:44 pm

The final chapter on Isaac may yet to be written.......interesting possible scenario setting up.
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#8714 Postby rainstorm » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:54 pm

my prediction is it redevelops in some way in the gom then gets swept ne up the coast as a strong subtropical storm in the wake of leslie. 40-60 mph gusts and heave rain from jacksonville to new england.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#8715 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:59 pm

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

see radar loop...interesting spin to the entire system. If its able to reform a LLC (which I think it will) and get further south, it might miss the trof all together....as Aric said...and some models are showing...depends where it comes off and how far south it gets over water...JMO
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#8716 Postby rainstorm » Tue Sep 04, 2012 1:23 pm

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Tail of Isaac should become gulf menace by Thursday. Weatherbell tolling the development idea http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_SE/anim8vis.html
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#8717 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 04, 2012 1:43 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html

ghost of Isaac entering the GOM up top


cute little LLC in the middle of the GOM....actually shows up on the map...


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#8718 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 04, 2012 2:37 pm

ROCK wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html

ghost of Isaac entering the GOM up top


cute little LLC in the middle of the GOM....actually shows up on the map...


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=




actually I am interested to see what this 850vort does with the left over from Isaac....wonder if they will merge...
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#8719 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 04, 2012 2:58 pm

If it does develop, it will probably get a different name unless this is the same circulation as Isaac though it could pull an Ivan.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#8720 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Sep 04, 2012 3:28 pm

ROCK wrote:see radar loop...interesting spin to the entire system.



As I was watching the SPC maps and local radar on GR3 while it moved over us (giving us some desperately needed rain), the rotation never really went away. You could even see it to some extent looking up at the clouds, and we're about 500 miles inland.
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