ATL: ISAAC - Models

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ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:11 pm

First plots.

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WHXX01 KWBC 170400
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0400 UTC FRI AUG 17 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120817 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120817  0000   120817  1200   120818  0000   120818  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.0N  17.2W   11.3N  19.3W   11.9N  21.4W   12.4N  22.9W
BAMD    11.0N  17.2W   11.4N  19.6W   12.0N  21.9W   12.3N  24.1W
BAMM    11.0N  17.2W   11.4N  19.8W   11.9N  22.4W   12.3N  24.9W
LBAR    11.0N  17.2W   11.3N  20.6W   12.0N  24.0W   12.4N  27.4W
SHIP        20KTS          25KTS          35KTS          45KTS
DSHP        20KTS          25KTS          35KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120819  0000   120820  0000   120821  0000   120822  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.9N  24.9W   14.0N  29.7W   14.3N  36.0W   14.1N  41.9W
BAMD    12.7N  26.1W   13.5N  30.2W   15.1N  34.8W   17.6N  39.4W
BAMM    12.4N  27.3W   12.4N  32.0W   12.7N  37.0W   13.9N  41.7W
LBAR    13.0N  30.8W   13.6N  37.9W   12.8N  44.8W    7.6N  44.4W
SHIP        55KTS          75KTS          92KTS         104KTS
DSHP        55KTS          75KTS          92KTS         104KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.0N LONCUR =  17.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
LATM12 =  10.7N LONM12 =  13.6W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =  10.3N LONM24 =   8.4W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =   90NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#2 Postby Riptide » Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:32 pm

104 kts, 120 hours out...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#3 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:40 pm

Riptide wrote:104 kts, 120 hours out...



SHIPS a little crazy with intensity.. :lol: ...GFS send this almost wnw across at until almost 60W then goes fishing....any delay in development could send this more west....that at 216 hr so that is la la land for the GFS....I dont care how good its been... 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#4 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:45 pm

the thing is this is coming off of Africa farther south than the 0zGFS initialized it, and if you look at the long range where this gets lifted out, if this is any farther south at 180hrs than the weakness would probably close up and this heads west, which could be bad for at least Bermuda if not the east coast

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:46 pm

Apart from the NE Caribbean,I think Bermuda,Nova Scotia and New Foundland have to watch this closely.

Look how strong this is at 00z GFS in long range. Yes,another one,but that is for another topic.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 17, 2012 12:36 am

00z CMC makes a very sharp right after moving west for a while.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#7 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 17, 2012 12:38 am

cycloneye wrote:00z CMC makes a very sharp right after moving west for a while.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation



also moves it slower it seems.....not like the screamers we have seen with the last 2 systems.
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#8 Postby AJC3 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 1:37 am

Not that I make it a habit to feed rampant weenie-ism, however the low-res flavor of the 00Z ECM has a weaker cyclone almost 500 miles SW of it's previous run at day 6/WED evening (12.6N 54.9W vs 17.2n 49.2W).

The New day 7 position is 15.1N 57.0W vs the old day 8 - 20.1N 53.2W
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#9 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Fri Aug 17, 2012 2:06 am

Very interesting run by the 00z Euro, shows it much further west than the last run and even a curve towards the WNW in the last 2 frames.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
Last edited by Hurricane Alexis on Fri Aug 17, 2012 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#10 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 17, 2012 5:10 am

ECM really bolts this system along to the west, that gets very close to the E.CAribbean indeed before it shoots NNW.

I wouldn't rule out the ECM solution at all, it does need to be taken seriously,
especially as lots of ECM ensembles are taking it further west as well...
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Re:

#11 Postby drezee » Fri Aug 17, 2012 6:11 am

Hurricane Alexis wrote:Very interesting run by the 00z run, shows it much further west than the last run and even a curve towards the WNW in the last 2 frames.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html



yes, it seems as if it takes a hard left at the end. What you actually see is the remnants of TD7 get caught up in the front and head NE. It can clearly been seen on the 850 Vor. It is near NYC and actually strengthens the ridge to its south. I am not saying it will stay on the left course, but has a chance to do a Felix...
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Re:

#12 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 17, 2012 9:08 am

Hurricane Alexis wrote:Very interesting run by the 00z run, shows it much further west than the last run and even a curve towards the WNW in the last 2 frames.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html


Classic CV run, shoots W across Atlantic, feels mid Atlantic weakness turns NW, weakness not strong enough to recurve and bends back to WNW. Many classic storms followed similar track. All but 1 of my eggs are in the GFS basket, so if GFS says recurve then that's what I'm saying. :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#13 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 9:45 am

cycloneye wrote:Apart from the NE Caribbean,I think Bermuda,Nova Scotia and New Foundland have to watch this closely.

Look how strong this is at 00z GFS in long range. Yes,another one,but that is for another topic.

Image


That setup reminds me of 1995's Luis/Marilyn and 1996's Hortense.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#14 Postby blp » Fri Aug 17, 2012 11:12 am

12z GFS shows 94l coming in further south and now shows both ciruculations developing as compared to 06Z which showed one.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP114.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP114.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#15 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Fri Aug 17, 2012 11:13 am

blp wrote:12z GFS shows 94l coming in further south and now shows both ciruculations developing as compared to 06Z which showed one.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP114.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP114.gif


Very interesting indeed
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#16 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 17, 2012 11:16 am

MUCH faster 12z GFS which causes the system to get a good deal further west as well. Also seems to develop the southern area.

Going to be a different type of track from the 12z GFS I think...
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#17 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 17, 2012 11:19 am

Wow the 12Z GFS really blows this system up. Looks like a signifcant hurricane in the MDR. :eek:

Heading for weakness though turning NW before the islands....

12Z Loop:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html
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#18 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 17, 2012 11:28 am

Yep still recurves it, a little further west than before. Does seem to be a slight trend emerging to take this further and further west in the MDR before it lifts out and thats something that does need to be kept an eye on...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#19 Postby blp » Fri Aug 17, 2012 11:33 am

Yes, it looks like a fish on this run. I am very interested in the 12z Euro to see if it continues its westward trend.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#20 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 17, 2012 12:08 pm

12z CMC tracks west to westnorthwest all the run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

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