ATL: ISAAC - Models

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StarmanHDB
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5721 Postby StarmanHDB » Wed Aug 29, 2012 10:01 pm

In checking out the post landfall models I can't help but notice that they take the storm directly over the states hit hardest by the 2012 drought. The question to ask is can the compromised soil can hold this amount of water? Sure, the rain is definitely needed, but I hope this is not a set up for complete disaster in the Midwest.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5722 Postby MJS1 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:31 am

StarmanHDB wrote:In checking out the post landfall models I can't help but notice that they take the storm directly over the states hit hardest by the 2012 drought. The question to ask is can the compromised soil can hold this amount of water? Sure, the rain is definitely needed, but I hope this is not a set up for complete disaster in the Midwest.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/


If the soil is very dry and compact the water will not be able to be absorbed quickly, therefore creating runoff to be discharged into streams possibly creating a flooding problem not only in those areas but also eventually @ the area of the Miss. river, including am afraid the Big Easy...depends on the track and amount of rainfall..

*** THE PRECEDING IS NOT A FORECAST BUT A WILD GUESS BY SOMEONE WITH NO METEOROLOGICAL OR AGRICULTURAL EDUCATION AND WHO IS USUALLY INCORRECT WHEN TALKING ABOUT WEATHER..FOR OFFICIAL FORECAST AND PERTINENT INFORMATION PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE***
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5723 Postby PDinKS » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:30 am

Here in SE Kansas, soil is indeed dry and compact; but reservoirs are low, and water restrictions abound. We'll take the bad with the good. We have a pond full of fish; had a significant fish kill earlier this week (even with aeration)- we really need the rain to bring water levels up. The soybean crops are toast...farmers are having to truck in water for livestock - yep; we'll take some flooding if that's the only way we can get any precip....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5724 Postby N2FSU » Thu Aug 30, 2012 12:23 pm

Any chance this travels back SE per the BAM models?

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5725 Postby N2Storms » Thu Aug 30, 2012 12:31 pm

[quote="N2FSU"]Any chance this travels back SE per the BAM models?

[img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b227/n2fsu/Isaac/BAM.gif[/img][/quote]

To answer your question...an excerpt from the Tallahassee NWS in this mornings' AFD


.LONG TERM [Saturday NIGHT through Thursday]...

As an Upper Level Ridge of High PRESSURE builds westward into the
Gulf of Mexico through the upcoming weekend, a brief period of
Hotter and drier conditions can be expected on Saturday and
Sunday. Thereafter, the remnants of Isaac may very well dip back
down to the SE and reestablish the very persistent and Wet Upper
Level TROF across the SE U.S., which has seemed to dominate our
weather for much of this SUMMER.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5726 Postby N2FSU » Thu Aug 30, 2012 1:06 pm

Wonderful.
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#5727 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:09 pm

Oh goodness... watch the 0z or 12z ECMWF 850mb vorticity loop. It looks like it wants to keep Isaac's vorticity distinct and bring it offshore around Georgia or the Carolinas and redevelop it.... and then it would drift southeast and then northeast before being picked up by the wake of Leslie.

If this scenario actually verifies, it might be named Michael or Nadine.... or Isaac. I think there could be some "considerable and sometimes animated in-house discussion" at the NHC again. :double: :lol:
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