ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Blinhart]

I wasn't saying changing it to landfall in Texas, I was merely suggesting that they should of moved landfall to around Morgan City, with a stall and staying no further North than Alexandria in about 24 to 36 hours after landfall. I know they can't change it drastically because it is so close to land, but they could of adjusted it slightly West and do it every 6 hours until landfall.

[Houstonia]

Hou/Galv discussion

edited for brevity

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
329 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 28 2012

Discussion...
[...] Isolated rain showers were beginning to
develop over the western third of the region. All eyes are on the
northern Gulf as Isaac gains in strength. Hurricane Isaac is still
expected to move into southern Louisiana and then track northwest.
Synoptic scale models still differ rather significantly on the
position of Isaac after landfall with the NAM and GFS further west
than the official hurricane track and the European model (ecmwf). Still not
completely comfortable discounting the the NAM and GFS solutions.
Will expand lowish probability of precipitation a bit further west on Wednesday as moisture
levels increase to near or just above 2.00 inches by late Wednesday
afternoon. Winds will increase on Wednesday...especially near the
extreme Upper Texas coast. Wind speeds will approach Wind Advisory
criteria on Wednesday afternoon. Will defer to midnight shift on the Wind
Advisory. Precipitable water values increase to between 2.2 and 2.3 inches Wednesday
night into Thursday. The NAM and GFS hint at some moderate to
strong low level speed and directional convergence along the coast
as the remnants of Isaac move inland. Confidence in this
convergence zone occurring is low but still Worth a mention in
the zone forecast product. Will go with chance probability of precipitation Wednesday night through Thursday. HPC
quantitative precipitation forecast values are between 2 and 3 inches over the extreme eastern
zones by Friday night. With the expected cloud cover and
rain...will trim maximum temperatures a bit on Thursday. Could be quite a
contrast in temperatures between the eastern and western zones.
[...]

[nashrobertsx]

Can someone provide a link to the HRRR model?

I use this website. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/

How about the direct link to the page. Would be helpful. Thx

[djmikey]

MPO...I honestly feel at this point, NHC will not change their track until after landfall, so they can show/prove that they were "correct" all along at predicting landfall. BUT after landfall...again, MPO...I feel they will make a change west! Somehow, someway, somewhere....

Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ATCcane]

18z GFS stays pretty much the same.....

[djmikey]

18z GFS stays pretty much the same.....

What did GFS show again?

[wxwatcher1999]

18z GFS stays pretty much the same.....

can you post it please?

[HurricaneBrain]

GFS through 30 hours tracks Isaac west toward SW Louisiana.

[Wx_Warrior]

Super swamped. GFS 18z stalls on coast of LA, then finally heads north at 39H

[HouTXmetro]

Super swamped. GFS 18z stalls on coast of LA, then finally heads north at 39H

North or Northwest?

[Wthrman13]

Today's GFS, NAM, RAP, and HRRR runs all insist on a W-WNW motion roughly paralleling the coast overnight. Up to the current time, however, Isaac's overall motion has been solidly NW. The key will be in the next few hours or so before landfall if the developing eye starts to move more west like these models suggest. If it does, the storm could continue to intensify or at least maintain its current strength for hours longer.

[Wx_Warrior]

57h



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[HurricaneBrain]

Super swamped. GFS 18z stalls on coast of LA, then finally heads north at 39H

North or Northwest?

North. But gets the storm pretty far west.

[HurricaneBrain]

Today's GFS, NAM, RAP, and HRRR runs all insist on a W-WNW motion roughly paralleling the coast overnight. Up to the current time, however, Isaac's overall motion has been solidly NW. The key will be in the next few hours or so before landfall if the developing eye starts to move more west like these models suggest. If it does, the storm could continue to intensify or at least maintain its current strength for hours longer.

With the current motion, I just can't see it heading west.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like Texas A&M will have to postpone it's beat down of Louisiana Tech Thursday if Isaac takes that GFS track near Shreveport. I'm very interested to see how this scenario plays out with the models trending west.

[Portastorm]

Already postponed to October 13th

[Comanche]

With the current motion, I just can't see it heading west.

Hard to say what happens here although it becomes harder to ignore multiple models all looking for a stall and westward movement.

One thing I learned here awhile back; these systems simply 'blow on the breeze', meaning they can go from 20 MPH to a crawl on a dime, there is no inertia whatsoever and why you see wild wobbles. So it is definitely within reality that this could stop dead at the coast and turn to a 270 heading.

[sphelps8681]

So what model run do we think we will know for sure or somewhat sure of a westerly track.

[mvtrucking]

Looks like Texas A&M will have to postpone it's beat down of Louisiana Tech Thursday if Isaac takes that GFS track near Shreveport. I'm very interested to see how this scenario plays out with the models trending west.

A&M is lucky it got postponed! Back to model topic

[gboudx]

So what model run do we think we will know for sure or somewhat sure of a westerly track.

Just use radar. You'll see it most clearly should it slow down and start a westerly turn.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/se ... X-N0Q-1-24