ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Portastorm]

So what model run do we think we will know for sure or somewhat sure of a westerly track.

Just use radar. You'll see it most clearly should it slow down and start a westerly turn.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/se ... X-N0Q-1-24

Some of the short-range models earlier today suggested a west movement by now and, so far, that just ain't happening. While Isaac has slowed ... he's clearly moving northwest.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

the HRRR one was for sure.

[Comanche]

So what model run do we think we will know for sure or somewhat sure of a westerly track.

It may do exactly what the NHC track depicts, the only reason I think there is any doubt at this point is because this storm has done almost everything it wasn't supposed to do; from strength to track. You can only watch to see at this point.

[gboudx]

So what model run do we think we will know for sure or somewhat sure of a westerly track.

Just use radar. You'll see it most clearly should it slow down and start a westerly turn.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/se ... X-N0Q-1-24

Some of the short-range models earlier today suggested a west movement by now and, so far, that just ain't happening. While Isaac has slowed ... he's clearly moving northwest.

Yeah I saw those. The GFS had sniffed that out since last Thursday. So far, it's not happening. It even appears to be going NNW on radar. But we all know the stair-stepping nature of these cyclones so let's see.

[ravyrn]

Anyone with the time to give a 12z and/or 18z model rundown? My first days of class were today and busy knocking out some homework and finding the best deal on books.. no time to scan through everything. Wanting to relay the newest model info to friends back home in SW LA. What I'm specifically interested in is where Isaac crosses I-10 between Lake Charles and Baton Rouge or I-210 east of Baton Rouge. I've noticed some have trended westward again and that Lake Charles may be in the ballgame.

[Garnet1995]

I am here in Houston SW side any idea of impacts here in Houston area? Should I be doing something besides trying to survive first two days of school? I miss my summer naps lol. Also more importantly my daughter is trying to come back home and is in Virginia I don't know what to tell her besides drive really fast lol. Any thoughts on best route and timing to get back to Houston safely? I know I sound like a wimp but its been a tough few months and I am trying to get my head back in the game....I donated my kidney to my dad and we lost him a few weeks ago from can you beat all a stroke ...I am not usually so unfocused.

[Steve]

Starting to pick up here. I had a feeling we would see some tightening and a big pulse near landfall. Considering the time of day and the dmax waxing along with a slow landfall, it will be interesting to see pressure at landfall and which model from 24 48 and 72 hours was closest. Somebody post that if you wouldn't mind. I don't usually talk about TV models, but the earlier today vipr had a strange solution. The city gets hit several times by the inner center of circulation as it drags its edge, north, east, and southeast across metro nola. I don't have any confidence in the vipr for tropical predictions (Cindy was the only thing I remember it getting right). And I am not suggesting it has a clue. But if the last run verifies, we will pay for the better part of many, many hours. they run it again tonight at some point. The last time I recall being under a center of convection, was for ts bill in 03 or 04. Stay safe all. Peace. And edit to say my people in lafourche (and presumably throughout sela and swms) reported it was getting rougher.

[Wx_Warrior]

FWIW, 6p NHC track update



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[South Texas Storms]

Latest HRRR is still showing Isaac to head west and hug the Louisiana coastline through 6am CT tomorrow morning.
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus1 ... 2012+-+21Z
Loop the reflectivity.

[smooth2904]

Latest HRRR is still showing Isaac to head west and hug the Louisiana coastline through 6am CT tomorrow morning.
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus1 ... title=HRRR Model Fields&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t6&wjet=1

It kind of looks some W movement now on the radar.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Posted this on other thread but will put here as well since it has to do with models showing Isaac turning west. Looking at wv loops shows Isaac could be bumping up against the ridge. Look at the northern fringes and se how they are starting to flatten out. Could be the start of slow west turn.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[ravyrn]

Latest HRRR is still showing Isaac to head west and hug the Louisiana coastline through 6am CT tomorrow morning.
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus1 ... title=HRRR Model Fields&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t6&wjet=1

It kind of looks some W movement now on the radar.

Yeah it certainly looks like a wobble WNW based on flight data from AF 308.

I am interested to see if the westward movement of the GFS, NAM, RAP, and HRRR will end up playing out.

[HurricaneBrain]

Wobbling WNW right now lets see if that continues

[ROCK]

yep like I said I dont think he is in any hurry for a second landfall...comes down to who you trust the mighty EURO or the GFS, NAM, HRRR, NOGAPS,...cant believe I said trust the NAM....


18Z NOGAPS

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[BigB0882]

Oh come on Rock. Trusting the NAM? You must really like to torture yourself.

[Janie2006]

You know the end doth truly approach when the NAM has a feasible tropical solution. I wouldn't say it's impossible for Isaac to take a stroll in the marshes for awhile.

[ROCK]

even a bend to the southwest per radar.....Isaac meet HIGH...HIGH meet Isaac....

[Wx_Warrior]

NHC 8p advisory track



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[TwisterFanatic]

NAM still on the West to WSW motion so far through 23HR's

[ROCK]

NAM still on the West to WSW motion so far through 23HR's

you must have a good site...I am only out 6 hours...