ATL: ISAAC - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Karen124
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 11
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:02 pm
Location: Near Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5701 Postby Karen124 » Wed Aug 29, 2012 6:14 am

So when should we expect to see another model?
0 likes   
Been around since Rita but it seems like I forget my login every season. Oh well...

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9254
Age: 52
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5702 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:16 am

06Z NAM slightly east of Houston / Galveston in 39 hours....
0 likes   

wxwatcher1999
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 264
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:19 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5703 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:18 am

ROCK wrote:06Z NAM slightly east of Houston / Galveston in 39 hours....


Can you post image please?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9254
Age: 52
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5704 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:18 am

06Z GFS.....TX/LA border at 33hrs then moves up the border...
0 likes   

Karen124
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 11
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:02 pm
Location: Near Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5705 Postby Karen124 » Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:19 am

Oh joy, that's me. It's the NAM though so...
0 likes   
Been around since Rita but it seems like I forget my login every season. Oh well...

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9254
Age: 52
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5706 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:19 am

wxwatcher1999 wrote:
ROCK wrote:06Z NAM slightly east of Houston / Galveston in 39 hours....


Can you post image please?


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
0 likes   

wxwatcher1999
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 264
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:19 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5707 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:20 am

ROCK wrote:06Z GFS.....TX/LA border at 33hrs then moves up the border...


Wow that's further west right?...can you tell what kind of strength?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9254
Age: 52
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5708 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:25 am

wxwatcher1999 wrote:
ROCK wrote:06Z GFS.....TX/LA border at 33hrs then moves up the border...


Wow that's further west right?...can you tell what kind of strength?



not much left if its over land for 33 hrs....probably a weak TS by then...
0 likes   

Hogweed
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2010 7:06 am

#5709 Postby Hogweed » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:02 am

Image
NAM 12z init

Image
NAM 12z +12

Image

NAM 12z + 18
Last edited by Hogweed on Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:27 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

Hogweed
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2010 7:06 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5710 Postby Hogweed » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:08 am

Image

NAM 12z +24
0 likes   

User avatar
iorange55
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2008 9:47 pm
Location: Big D

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5711 Postby iorange55 » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:15 am

NAM 12z looks to be even further west through 30hrs.

Not buying it completely, though.
0 likes   

Hogweed
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2010 7:06 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5712 Postby Hogweed » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:18 am

Image
NAM +36
0 likes   

Hogweed
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2010 7:06 am

#5713 Postby Hogweed » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:29 am

Image
NAM 12z +42
0 likes   

wxwatcher1999
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 264
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:19 am

#5714 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Wed Aug 29, 2012 10:03 am

How reliable are models at this point?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hogweed
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2010 7:06 am

#5715 Postby Hogweed » Wed Aug 29, 2012 10:45 am

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image
0 likes   

randge
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 24
Joined: Fri Aug 17, 2007 9:26 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5716 Postby randge » Wed Aug 29, 2012 11:41 am

ROCK wrote:
wxwatcher1999 wrote:
ROCK wrote:06Z GFS.....TX/LA border at 33hrs then moves up the border...


Wow that's further west right?...can you tell what kind of strength?



not much left if its over land for 33 hrs....probably a weak TS by then...


I was trying to get promet's to give some kind of opinion on scenarios like this. Didn't get a lot of response, so I started noodling around some files to see what I could come up with.


The NHC data points on Hurricane Karl suggest that at around 1005 to 1002 millibar (which is what some of these model prog for the Houston area) you might expect 30-40 knot winds. No idea what kind of rain might accompany a blow like that.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004karl.shtml

Disclaimer: This is in no wise a forecast. This is just a wise-guy amateur throwing in his five cent's worth. Please access reliable sources such as the National Hurricane Center for official information.
0 likes   

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5717 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 29, 2012 2:11 pm

Since everyone has been gung-ho about the NAM, thought I would post the 12z EURO, since models are still being posted.

12z 24H

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5718 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 29, 2012 2:12 pm

And the 48H 12z EURO

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   

Hogweed
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2010 7:06 am

#5719 Postby Hogweed » Wed Aug 29, 2012 3:48 pm

Image

18z NAM still wants to take this to Texas
0 likes   

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5720 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 29, 2012 4:06 pm

4pm NHC advisory track

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 28 guests