ATL: ISAAC - Models

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wxwatcher1999
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5661 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:18 pm

ROCK wrote:they are waiting for the 0Z GFS I bet you before they move it.....JMO......BTW the 0Z GFS comes out soon...



what do you think Rock...further south?
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Karen124
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5662 Postby Karen124 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:18 pm

How soon is soon? It's way past my bedtime already!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5663 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:19 pm

Karen124 wrote:How soon is soon? It's way past my bedtime already!


It starts updating in about 10 mins.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5664 Postby sphelps8681 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:24 pm

local met here in beaumont not forcasting much of anything. He did say that isaac would go west but there was dry to the west. Can someone tell me what exactly that means.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5665 Postby Texashawk » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:26 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:local met here in beaumont not forcasting much of anything. He did say that isaac would go west but there was dry to the west. Can someone tell me what exactly that means.


It means the west side of a tropical system is called the 'dry side' because, among other things, there isn't the same amount of convection. I think it also has to do with northerly flow being drier.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5666 Postby pwrdog » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:27 pm

Karen124 wrote:How soon is soon? It's way past my bedtime already!

GFS
0z: 10:30pm
6z: 4:30am
12z: 10:30am
18z: 4:30pm

NAM
0z: 8:35pm
6z: 2:35am
12z: 8:35am
18z: 2:35pm

GGEM
0z: 12:00am
12z : 12:00pm

UKMET
0z: 12:30am
12z: 12:30pm

ECM
0z: 1:30am
12z: 1:30pm
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5667 Postby catskillfire51 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:28 pm

To me it looks like they did shift it a little further west, they changed sabine from a tropical storm watch to a tropical storm warning. It also looks like the cone covers a little bigger area of the northeast part of texas. might just be my eyes.

just my uneducated opinion
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5668 Postby Karen124 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:29 pm

Thank you! That should be a sticky! I've been looking for that info for days now! :)
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5669 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:31 pm

wxwatcher1999 wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:10pm (Central) NHC advisory track.

[ img]http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/8342/212335w5nlsm.gif[/img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us



now if this thing goes west i am going to be sure and post everyone of these


Do what you got to do. This is the forecast of the National Hurricane Center. I don't have a dog in this hunt.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5670 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:32 pm

GFS is moving this w to sw offshore at 9hrs....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5671 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:33 pm

If NHC was 100% certain on tracks, there would be no cones. Follow the radar & cone.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5672 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:34 pm

the NHC will have to recognize these models runs.....at least a slight shift west..come on now....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5673 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:38 pm

I'm just posting what the NHC publishes.

Ok to post this? 0z GFS 18h

Image

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Ken711
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5674 Postby Ken711 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:39 pm

Is there any chance that steering conditions would allow Isaac to loop around the same way that Juan did in 1985?

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5675 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:39 pm

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5676 Postby catskillfire51 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:40 pm

ROCK wrote:the NHC will have to recognize these models runs.....at least a slight shift west..come on now....



If you go to page 282 and look half way down is the 6pm nhc forcasted cone, look at it now... they did shift it west


Just my uneducated opinion and untrained eye
Last edited by catskillfire51 on Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5677 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:40 pm

Let me try this one

GFS 30H

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#5678 Postby Texashawk » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:40 pm

You know, if Isaac can get over/across the 'Houma Hump', so to speak, it might keep most of its eye offshore for quite a while, owing to the geometry of Louisiana's western coastline.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5679 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:41 pm

36h

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Re:

#5680 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:42 pm

Texashawk wrote:You know, if Isaac can get over/across the 'Houma Hump', so to speak, it might keep most of its eye offshore for quite a while, owing to the geometry of Louisiana's western coastline.



yep....that would be worst case of course....but the water on the coast are toasty as well...


http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
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