ATL: ISAAC - Models

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5681 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:43 pm

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5682 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:43 pm

42h

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Jagno
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Re:

#5683 Postby Jagno » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:43 pm

Texashawk wrote:You know, if Isaac can get over/across the 'Houma Hump', so to speak, it might keep most of its eye offshore for quite a while, owing to the geometry of Louisiana's western coastline.


You just expressed my thoughts/concerns that if he doesn't pick up that true NW motion and maintain it then he may very well miss Houma and remain in open water much longer. Oh BTW, I'm not forecasting anything, just a personal observation.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5684 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:47 pm

Last one for me: 54H

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Re:

#5685 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:47 pm

Texashawk wrote:You know, if Isaac can get over/across the 'Houma Hump', so to speak, it might keep most of its eye offshore for quite a while, owing to the geometry of Louisiana's western coastline.


Check out this radar loop. Might just be trying to do that.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5686 Postby sfgal » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:48 pm

ROCK wrote:http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F29%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=036&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M


I am not experienced at interpreting these maps, but the last run just posted by Rock appears to put the storm's center near Baton Rouge or between BR and Mississippi. Are my old eyes failing me?
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#5687 Postby Texashawk » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:49 pm

034030 2859N 08955W 8427 01237 9695 +210 +210 239003 008 000 004 05

Recon confirms, intermediate-term motion is just South of due West. Long live the NAM!!! (did I just say that?!?)
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5688 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:50 pm

sfgal wrote:
ROCK wrote:http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F29%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=036&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M


I am not experienced at interpreting these maps, but the last run just posted by Rock appears to put the storm's center near Baton Rouge or between BR and Mississippi. Are my old eyes failing me?



Baton Rouge......


BTW- that is a SW jog for sure.....any prolonged SW run and the further west this can get and more water to work with....not saying in will happen but there is a pool of 30C water just south / west of him....jmo

add 2k disclaimer....
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Re:

#5689 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:51 pm

Texashawk wrote:034030 2859N 08955W 8427 01237 9695 +210 +210 239003 008 000 004 05

Recon confirms, intermediate-term motion is just South of due West. Long live the NAM!!! (did I just say that?!?)




yep.....good call Hawk good call.....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5690 Postby Blinhart » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:51 pm

I didn't like Juan back in 1985, and he was just a Tropical Storm that actually made it in land before deciding to make his loop. Looks like Isaac just doesn't want to make it further in land than a couple miles, so that would be scary.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5691 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:52 pm

A few days ago, the GFS showed this exact scenerio thats happening now when all the other models were in the Florida Panhandle, kudos to the GFS
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Re: Re:

#5692 Postby Texashawk » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:53 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:
Texashawk wrote:You know, if Isaac can get over/across the 'Houma Hump', so to speak, it might keep most of its eye offshore for quite a while, owing to the geometry of Louisiana's western coastline.


Check out this radar loop. Might just be trying to do that.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes


Man, this thing's retreating back from the coast faster than.... eh, better not go there. :)

Kidding aside, I'm starting to truly wonder whether this is just a little wobble.
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Re: Re:

#5693 Postby Texashawk » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:55 pm

ROCK wrote:
Texashawk wrote:034030 2859N 08955W 8427 01237 9695 +210 +210 239003 008 000 004 05

Recon confirms, intermediate-term motion is just South of due West. Long live the NAM!!! (did I just say that?!?)




yep.....good call Hawk good call.....


BTW, don't know if you watch KHOU Rock, but the old man called this days ago, sort of. So nice to have 2 NHC directors in our town.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5694 Postby Ken711 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:55 pm

Blinhart wrote:I didn't like Juan back in 1985, and he was just a Tropical Storm that actually made it in land before deciding to make his loop. Looks like Isaac just doesn't want to make it further in land than a couple miles, so that would be scary.


That's exactly what I was wondering. Is there anyway Issac could be pushed back NE after a loop? Or if it continues to bounce along the coast it will be forced W or N?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5695 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:59 pm

Splitting frog hairs, GFS was may have been a tad east on 0z.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5696 Postby Nederlander » Wed Aug 29, 2012 12:49 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:Splitting frog hairs, GFS was may have been a tad east on 0z.


*ahem euro hugger *ahem... Lol kidding aside GFS has done well with this system compared to the rest of the models. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. Let's hope it doesn't get blocked..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5697 Postby jenmrk » Wed Aug 29, 2012 1:00 am

Will be seeing models again any time soon?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5698 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 29, 2012 1:02 am

EURO 24H

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5699 Postby jenmrk » Wed Aug 29, 2012 1:03 am

That answered my question...thank you!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5700 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 29, 2012 1:05 am

48H moving north

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