ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Karen124
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5701 Postby Karen124 » Wed Aug 29, 2012 6:14 am

So when should we expect to see another model?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5702 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:16 am

06Z NAM slightly east of Houston / Galveston in 39 hours....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5703 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:18 am

ROCK wrote:06Z NAM slightly east of Houston / Galveston in 39 hours....


Can you post image please?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5704 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:18 am

06Z GFS.....TX/LA border at 33hrs then moves up the border...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5705 Postby Karen124 » Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:19 am

Oh joy, that's me. It's the NAM though so...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5706 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:19 am

wxwatcher1999 wrote:
ROCK wrote:06Z NAM slightly east of Houston / Galveston in 39 hours....


Can you post image please?


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5707 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:20 am

ROCK wrote:06Z GFS.....TX/LA border at 33hrs then moves up the border...


Wow that's further west right?...can you tell what kind of strength?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5708 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:25 am

wxwatcher1999 wrote:
ROCK wrote:06Z GFS.....TX/LA border at 33hrs then moves up the border...


Wow that's further west right?...can you tell what kind of strength?



not much left if its over land for 33 hrs....probably a weak TS by then...
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#5709 Postby Hogweed » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:02 am

Image
NAM 12z init

Image
NAM 12z +12

Image

NAM 12z + 18
Last edited by Hogweed on Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:27 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5710 Postby Hogweed » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:08 am

Image

NAM 12z +24
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5711 Postby iorange55 » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:15 am

NAM 12z looks to be even further west through 30hrs.

Not buying it completely, though.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5712 Postby Hogweed » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:18 am

Image
NAM +36
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#5713 Postby Hogweed » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:29 am

Image
NAM 12z +42
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#5714 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Wed Aug 29, 2012 10:03 am

How reliable are models at this point?
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#5715 Postby Hogweed » Wed Aug 29, 2012 10:45 am

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5716 Postby randge » Wed Aug 29, 2012 11:41 am

ROCK wrote:
wxwatcher1999 wrote:
ROCK wrote:06Z GFS.....TX/LA border at 33hrs then moves up the border...


Wow that's further west right?...can you tell what kind of strength?



not much left if its over land for 33 hrs....probably a weak TS by then...


I was trying to get promet's to give some kind of opinion on scenarios like this. Didn't get a lot of response, so I started noodling around some files to see what I could come up with.


The NHC data points on Hurricane Karl suggest that at around 1005 to 1002 millibar (which is what some of these model prog for the Houston area) you might expect 30-40 knot winds. No idea what kind of rain might accompany a blow like that.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004karl.shtml

Disclaimer: This is in no wise a forecast. This is just a wise-guy amateur throwing in his five cent's worth. Please access reliable sources such as the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5717 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 29, 2012 2:11 pm

Since everyone has been gung-ho about the NAM, thought I would post the 12z EURO, since models are still being posted.

12z 24H

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5718 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 29, 2012 2:12 pm

And the 48H 12z EURO

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#5719 Postby Hogweed » Wed Aug 29, 2012 3:48 pm

Image

18z NAM still wants to take this to Texas
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5720 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 29, 2012 4:06 pm

4pm NHC advisory track

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