WPAC: BOLAVEN - Extratropical

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Meow

WPAC: BOLAVEN - Extratropical

#1 Postby Meow » Fri Aug 17, 2012 9:16 pm

Image

Southwest of Guam.
Last edited by Meow on Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:11 am, edited 8 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 10:30 pm

very wet and breezy day here in guam...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 10:43 pm

Image

possibly our 15th or 16th tropical cyclone...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 1:05 am

jtwc now mentions this area...

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0N 140.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BROAD REGION OF TIGHT TROUGHING WITH A POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWING
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH. A 180043Z ASCAT
PASS INDICATES THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE TROUGH WITH 20 KNOT WINDS OBSERVED. THE REMAINDER OF
THE TROUGH HAS WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION WITH 10 TO
15 KNOTS OF VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#5 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:00 am

this invest has a better defined LLC compared to the other invest... let's see what it can do next..
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 10:35 am

mrbagyo wrote:this invest has a better defined LLC compared to the other invest... let's see what it can do next..


Image

indeed...euro showing this as a stronger storm than 96W
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 10:53 am

Image

looks like another landfall :eek: possibly japan...
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#8 Postby Meow » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:29 pm

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 14N 139E ALMOST STATIONARY.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 10:38 pm

Image

continuing to get better organized...i wouldn't be surprised to see this upgraded to our 16th tropical cyclone this year...although a medium is more appropriate...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
140.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 141.4E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP, YET FRAGMENTED AND SOMEWHAT LINEAR,
CONVECTION OVER A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AS
INDICATED BY AN 181405Z OSCAT PASS. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN
THE 181805Z AMSU-B IMAGE SEEMS LINEAR IN NATURE WITH NO NOTICEABLE
SHARP, OR BROAD, TURNING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE
IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT RANGING FROM 27-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. DUE TO THE WEAK LLCC
STRUCTURE AND FRAGMENTED LINEAR NATURE IN DEEP CONVECTION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 10:51 pm

Image

tembin and now this? WOW!
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 11:01 pm

TXPQ23 KNES 190332
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 19/0232Z

C. 14.2N

D. 142.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION MEASURES 3/10 FOR A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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#12 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat Aug 18, 2012 11:20 pm

Yeah if ECM is anything to go by this storm will be a classic Wpac monster, and yet another storm to make landfall! And all in dry phase of MJO! :eek:

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#13 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Aug 19, 2012 3:59 am

Latest from Euro now shows a large significant tropical cyclone makind landfall in Taiwan...that is after Tembin makes landfall in the same area.. Bad news for Taiwan and China if this pans out.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#14 Postby Meow » Sun Aug 19, 2012 5:10 am

Now a tropical depression from the JMA.

Image

WWJP25 RJTD 190600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 190600.
WARNING VALID 200600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 47N 153E
55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 42N 180E 39N 159E 39N 142E 42N 141E 42N
143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 45N 136E ENE 15 KT.
LOW 1014 HPA AT 44N 164E EAST 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 14N 142E NORTH SLOWLY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 36N 158E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 34N 117E TO 39N 125E 42N 131E 45N 136E 46N
144E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1214 TEMBIN (1214) 1000 HPA AT 17.4N 124.8E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#15 Postby Meow » Sun Aug 19, 2012 5:11 am

TCFA

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 191000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 141.8E TO 17.3N 142.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
190832Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
142.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
141.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 142.0E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASINGLY TIGHTER CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES
WRAPPING TOWARDS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS FRAGMENTED ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION. A RECENT 190516Z AMSU-B AND 190545Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGERY PASS CONFIRMS THE LLCC RECENT DEVELOPMENTAL IMPROVEMENTS AND
WAS USED IN RELOCATING THE 190600Z POSITION FURTHER TO THE EAST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN A REGION OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT RANGING FROM 27-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING, GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND
FAVORABLE SSTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
201000Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#16 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 10:13 am

outer rainbands affecting us here in guam and our northern neighbors, the cnmi...very breezy and rainy day...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 10:36 am

Image

both 1.5 from both agencies...

TXPQ23 KNES 191516
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 19/1432Z

C. 15.8N

D. 142.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .3 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.5. MET=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ


TPPN12 PGTW 191233

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (NW OF GUAM)

B. 19/1132Z

C. 15.2N

D. 141.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
19/0734Z 14.3N 142.1E SSMS


HERMANN
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#18 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:11 pm

GFS 192hr

Image
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#19 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:13 pm

Image
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#20 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 4:51 pm

18Z, tracked two degrees north since 06Z

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 16N 142E NORTH SLOWLY.
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