WPAC: BOLAVEN - Extratropical

[euro6208]

bolaven intensifying...

WTPN32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 19.4N 136.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 136.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.1N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.9N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.8N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.9N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 24.9N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 27.4N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 31.5N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 136.5E.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN





WDPN32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BEEN FLARING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH
POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINING WEAKLY RESTRICTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT.
DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0/5.0 FROM PGTW/RJTD AND
SUPPORT THE RECENT INCREASE TO 90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE. TY
16W IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING UNDER THE STR AND
STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL VENTING THROUGH TAU
72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 16W WILL TRACK AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE STR AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS AND RE-ORIENTS
THE STR ALLOWING FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA.
THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLOWLY AFTER TAU 72 AS THE
UPPER LEVEL VENTING WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH AN INCREASE IN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH NGPS AND GFS BEING THE
POLEWARD OUTLIERS AND THE REMAINDER OF CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATING
A TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF OKINAWA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT
WITH CONSENSUS SPEEDS BUT IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK
TO ACCOUNT FOR NGPS AND GFS. BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF MODEL
GUIDANCE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

very cold cloud tops...

[Cyclenall]

Typhoon Bolaven is the most impressive tropical cyclone convective wise of 2012!! I was amazed at the CDO and how expansive and deep the convection is!! No eye at all at the surface and on satellite imagery even though its 90 knots I think, unusual. Yeah I think its in the top two for most impressive convection producing systems I've ever seen.

Using IR type images from the SSD, at 12:32 UTC on the Water Vapor one, around 50% of the CDO was white pixels...that is insane. To put that in perspective, rarely I see 1-5 white pixels on very deep convection storms. On the Rainbow Color IR (not rainbow RBTOP IR), for only the second time I have ever seen it, black pixels appeared. Bolaven also has the most black pixels on any system that I have seen on the 11:32 UTC image. Finally on the RBTOP color (newest IR form added), the whitest pixels I've ever seen were on the 17:32 image as the 11:32 one was missed or improperly put on the loop.

very cold cloud tops...

More like extraordinarily cold cloud tops, maybe colder than -90ºC in some spots.

[hurricanes1234]

very cold cloud tops...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This storm is exploding bigtime. First of all, it is HUGE. Bolaven is at least 4 times the size of Tembin, which could explain its pressure of 955 mbar, up to 15 mbar lower than a 105 mph Category 2. Secondly, as you pointed out, the cloudtops are very, very cold. In regular tropical cyclones, I would expect between -50°C and -75°C cloudtops, but this one could be colder than -80°C. Thirdly, the overall appearance is rather impressive, but it is so large, it almost cannot fit on the satellite images. All this storm needs is an eye and it should begin to really take off.

[StormingB81]

Okinawa according to the forecasted path is right in line with it...wow if I was still there who knows how I would.be

[angelisagemini]

Oh my. I guess my son and I will be venturing out in the rain to restock our typhoon kit today.

[DukeDevil91]

I'm stationed here in South Korea. Wondering what you guys think the impact on the western side of Korea over the next 6-8 days. A general consesus of a lot of models have it squeezing in between us and China as a cat 2. With such a large system impacts look like they'll be significant.

[mrbagyo]

this Bolaven is very impressive, its still very far from the Philippines but it is now attracting that dreaded southwest monsoon...

Typhoon Bolaven is the most impressive tropical cyclone convective wise of 2012!! I was amazed at the CDO and how expansive and deep the convection is!! No eye at all at the surface and on satellite imagery even though its 90 knots I think, unusual. Yeah I think its in the top two for most impressive convection producing systems I've ever seen.

Using IR type images from the SSD, at 12:32 UTC on the Water Vapor one, around 50% of the CDO was white pixels...that is insane. To put that in perspective, rarely I see 1-5 white pixels on very deep convection storms. On the Rainbow Color IR (not rainbow RBTOP IR), for only the second time I have ever seen it, black pixels appeared. Bolaven also has the most black pixels on any system that I have seen on the 11:32 UTC image. Finally on the RBTOP color (newest IR form added), the whitest pixels I've ever seen were on the 17:32 image as the 11:32 one was missed or improperly put on the loop.

very cold cloud tops...

More like extraordinarily cold cloud tops, maybe colder than -90ºC in some spots.

cyclenall- top two on your list? whats your top 1 system for convection? I wonder

[Cyclenall]

cyclenall- top two on your list? whats your top 1 system for convection? I wonder

I don't remember what it was, it was a tropical system in the North Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal) that might not have even been a TC, just an invest at the time. It was years ago. It's possible Bolaven is more impressive than that one so its maybe #1 but at least in the top 2 for me.

[dexterlabio]

Mirinae in 2009 also had this huge ball of deep convection but throughout its lifetime it never had a visible eye. Though I have this feeling the eye of Bolaven would pop out anytime soon.

[euro6208]

100 knots based on windsat image! okinawa might get a direct hit...


WTPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 20.2N 133.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 133.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.1N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.3N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 23.4N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 24.6N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 27.6N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 32.4N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 38.4N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 133.6E.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS STARTED TO
FORM A LARGE BANDING FEATURE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH THE CENTER BECOMING LESS CLOUD FILLED. A 230854Z WINDSAT
37H MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE LLCC UNDER THE CDO HAS A WELL
DEVELOPED EYEWALL STRUCTURE WITH MULTIPLE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON THE WINDSAT
IMAGE EVEN IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES INDICATING A
SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TY 16W IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A
POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC. TY 16W
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH, ANCHORED JUST EAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIMETER OF THE STR
THROUGH TAU 72; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EXTRAORDINARY SIZE AND MAGNITUDE
OF THE CYCLONE, IT WILL MODIFY THE STR, RESULTING IN A MORE POLEWARD
STORM MOTION. AFTER TAU 48, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
MONGOLIA AND TRACKING TOWARD THE YELLOW SEA WILL WEAKEN THE STR
RESULTING IN AN EVEN MORE POLEWARD STORM MOTION. THE SYSTEM WILL
STEADILY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 120 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AND PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL INTO OKINAWA.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 16W SHOULD TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
WEAKNESS CAUSED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH. TRACK SPEEDS
WILL ACCELERATE DURING THIS TIME AND INTENSITY WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE AS OCEAN PARAMETERS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, AN
INCREASE OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO SLIGHTLY OFFSET THE
COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES BUT WILL SEE A QUICK WEAKENING BEYOND TAU
96. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN TAU 96 AND
120 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN YELLOW SEA. OBJECTIVE AID
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

very small eye is evident......rapid intensification is likely once it shows up

[euro6208]

euro has bolaven making a direct hit on okinawa as a very powerful typhoon.......

you can see tembin strengthening southwest of taiwan...

[apocalypt-flyer]

Yup, it looks as if it's really bombing out that much is certain. Will be interesting to see how much Bolaven and Tembin are going to interact or not and most importantly - Bolaven is just HUGE.

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised if Bolaven becomes a super typhoon. I notice storms with small eyes often undergo rapid intensification. Case in point, Opal and Wilma.

[artist]

so Sasebo is not out of the woods here yet?

[Infdidoll]

See what happens?! I leave and miss all the fun. Howdy from Virginia!

I hope everyone is prepared. I've still got some Oki friends on Facebook who are feeling pretty nonchalant. Apparently, they've had a lot of misses this year so now they aren't feeling this one. I think they're going to be in for a surprise because that is one big system. Even a margin of error could still mean Oki sees the best storm they've seen in years. Wish I was still there! (relax, folks - Oki is a giant concrete bunker)

[keitheyleen]

its a little sunny here in okinawa, japan.. the usual calm before the storm.. hopefully it wont give us damage.. and as always, panic buying in stores.. i know okinawa houses are typhoon proof.. its like a big typhoon wolf going to huff and puff and hopefully our home will not blown away

[dexterlabio]

can't its eye show up already? i can imagine a large eye for its size but if it is to have a small one, then this is gonna look intense!

[dexterlabio]

well...a small intense eye it's going to be!