WPAC: BOLAVEN - Extratropical

[Typhoon Hunter]

ECMWF still intent on taking this to Taiwan as a very powerful typhoon, just 4 days after Tembin is forecast to hit the country.

GFS has had a notable poleward bias on the last few storms out here so I wouldn't be surprised if those runs shift west somewhat.

ECMWF 3rd run in a row for Taiwan:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Meow]

There may be another tropical storm in the next 24 hours.



TD
Issued at 01:05 UTC, 20 August 2012

<Analyses at 20/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N16°50'(16.8°)
E141°55'(141.9°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 21/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°30'(18.5°)
E140°35'(140.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[Meow]

The first warning of 16W from the JTWC.



WTPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190951Z AUG 12//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 17.3N 141.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 141.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.6N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.3N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.5N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.7N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.1N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.6N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.4N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 141.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 190951Z AUG 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 191000).//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

On closer examination of that ECMWF chart before landfall it would appear that 16W reaches intensity of 69m/s (10-min) at 850hPa level, that is just absurd...

EDIT: GFS also doing ridiculous things with intensity, (12z) 95XhPa pressure which for a global model is crazy low!

[RL3AO]

GFS earlier showed it at 960mb which is pretty crazy for a global model.

[phwxenthusiast]

hmm, JTWC seems to be conservative with the intensity based on the current model runs...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

so our 16th tropical cyclone is here and forecast to become powerful bolaven!

[phwxenthusiast]

00z GFS really blowing this up into a monster... ran some data for sampled points and it's showing a minimum pressure of 955mb for Kadena: sustained winds are around 130kph which i find a little low given the intensity...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[mrbagyo]

wow, this will be huge!!! but too bad for Taiwan if all the model came into fruition .

[Meow]

Tropical Storm Bolaven



TS 1215 (BOLAVEN)
Issued at 07:10 UTC, 20 August 2012

<Analyses at 20/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°25'(17.4°)
E141°25'(141.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 21/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°05'(19.1°)
E139°00'(139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 22/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°20'(20.3°)
E135°50'(135.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 23/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°40'(21.7°)
E131°40'(131.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

[mrbagyo]

convection is bursting again

[Meow]

Severe Tropical Storm Bolaven



STS 1215 (BOLAVEN)
Issued at 01:00 UTC, 21 August 2012

<Analyses at 21/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°10'(18.2°)
E140°50'(140.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 22/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°35'(19.6°)
E138°00'(138.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 23/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°10'(21.2°)
E134°00'(134.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 24/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°40'(22.7°)
E130°30'(130.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)

[mrbagyo]

an eye is now forming...

[mrbagyo]

[Meow]

Typhoon Bolaven



TY 1215 (BOLAVEN)
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 21 August 2012

<Analyses at 21/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N18°55'(18.9°)
E140°10'(140.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 22/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°30'(20.5°)
E136°40'(136.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 23/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°10'(22.2°)
E132°55'(132.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 24/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°55'(23.9°)
E129°10'(129.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)

[euro6208]

Bolaven now our 11th typhoon!!! looks like another monster in the making...

WTPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 16W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 139.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 139.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.3N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.8N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.4N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.0N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.2N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.4N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 24.9N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 139.4E.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
15W (TEMBIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO). A 211230Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED CENTER LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CDO. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 211004Z SSMIS IMAGE AND THE METOP-A
IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 20N 135E, WHICH IS PRODUCING 15-20 KNOT
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TY 16W IS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR THROUGH TAU 72. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH A 110 NM SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AT TAU 72. THE 21/00Z 500MB UPPER-
AIR DATA SHOWS HEIGHT RISES (1-3 DM) ACROSS AND SOUTH OF JAPAN
REFLECTING A STRENGTHENING STR, THEREFORE, TY 16W IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. TY 16W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH
TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 16W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE
POLEWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN
CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A TRACK SOUTH OF OKINAWA. THE
JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND JGSM MODELS,
WHICH ARE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE AND INDICATE A
TRACK SOUTH OF OKINAWA. THE BULK OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA ALSO SUPPORTS
A TRACK SOUTH OF OKINAWA. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND POTENTIAL FOR A MORE POLEWARD TURN AFTER TAU
120.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

very deep convection

[Meow]

Bolaven now our 11th typhoon!!! looks like another monster in the making..

The 9th in 2012 by the RSMC Tokyo.

[mrbagyo]

wow, this system is huge and has an excellent outflow to its south .... very beautiful

[euro6208]

80 knots...