WPAC: BOLAVEN - Extratropical

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#101 Postby Infdidoll » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:09 am

JTWC has downgraded that 135kt prediction to 125kt. Better news for Okinawa, but not by much:

Image

WTPN32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 24.4N 130.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 130.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 25.6N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 27.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 28.8N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 31.9N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 39.6N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 47.3N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 130.2E.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z
IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND
261500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#102 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:51 am

The eye of Typhoon BolavenImage
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#103 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:01 am

Quite a large storm.
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#104 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:28 am

Image

....

WDPN32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A 20 NM ROUND EYE SURROUNDED BY MULTIPLE TIGHTLY-CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM; HOWEVER, THIS
WEAKENING TREND IS CONSISTENT WITH AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE (ERC) AS SHOWN IN A 251058Z SSMIS IMAGE. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE SMALL EYE FEATURE
AND RADAR FIXES FROM JAPAN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 125
KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS
FROM PGTW AND KNES; DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER AT
115 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW.
THE 25/00Z 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN JAPAN INTO THE CHEJU-DO REGION WITH
A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED ALONG 110E, OVER
CENTRAL CHINA WITH A BROAD MIDLATITUDE RIDGE OVER MANCHURIA.
SPECIFICALLY, UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AT BOTH NAZE AND KAGOSHIMA INDICATE
DEEP EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EVIDENCING THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR; HOWEVER,
THERE IS ALSO A MARKED TROCHOIDAL MOTION (WOBBLE) EVIDENT. OVER THE
PAST TWO HOURS, TY 16W HAS RETURNED TO A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF WESTWARD MOVEMENT. TY 16W IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BUT SHOULD
THEN TURN NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TRACK
INTO THE YELLOW SEA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH A 130 NM SPREAD WEST OF SEOUL. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND IS HEDGED EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
TY 16W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY NEAR 125 KNOTS THROUGH
TAU 24 AND WILL THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD. AFTER TAU
48, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO COOLER SST AND
INCREASING, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 16W WILL ACCELERATE POLEWARD MAKING
LANDFALL OVER NORTH KOREA JUST AFTER TAU 72 AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT NEAR TAU
96. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#105 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:53 am

Image

Image

Image

bolaven has maintained a very well defined small circular eye for a very long time...it even shrunk... who knows how strong bolaven peaked...
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#106 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:34 pm

Image

i cant believe the inner eye hasn't collasped yet...it looks to have strengthend even more with multiple eyewalls...
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#107 Postby apocalypt-flyer » Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:24 pm

All I can say is - GOOD LUCK Okinawa.
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#108 Postby Meow » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:05 pm

Bolaven becomes the strongest typhoon in 2012.

Image

TY 1215 (BOLAVEN)
Issued at 01:50 UTC, 26 August 2012

<Analyses at 26/01 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N25°25'(25.4°)
E129°25'(129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL310km(170NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL650km(350NM)

<Estimate for 26/02 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N25°30'(25.5°)
E129°20'(129.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL310km(170NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL650km(350NM)

<Forecast for 26/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°00'(26.0°)
E128°50'(128.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°50'(26.8°)
E127°55'(127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 26/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°35'(27.6°)
E127°05'(127.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 120km(65NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 27/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°35'(28.6°)
E126°20'(126.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)
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#109 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:15 pm

Wow 910! Is that the lowest since Megi in 2010? JMA maintains this intensity for 24 hours.
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#110 Postby madness » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:07 pm

Yep, this is the most intense system since Super Typhoon Megi 892HPa which was in 2010
I am staggered that JMA officially haven't classified it as a Super Typhoon - it looks very impressive
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#111 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:32 pm

Image

to everyone in okinawa, we are thinking of you!


WTPN32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 25.3N 129.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3N 129.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 27.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 29.0N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 32.2N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 36.1N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 43.7N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 50.5N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 25.7N 129.1E.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 52
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
PGTW SATELLITE FIX, A 252329Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE, AND
RADAR FIX FROM JAPAN. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TY 16W
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, WITH THE
252329Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWING A PARTIAL EROSION OF THE ORIGINAL INNER
EYEWALL. INTENSITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE NEW OUTER
EYEWALL DEVELOPS. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE
CYCLONE, WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TY 16W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER HONSHU.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CURRENT SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. TY 16W
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE UPCOMING 36 HOURS AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND THE ONGOING EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE PROGRESSES. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
C. TY 16W WILL ACCELERATE POLEWARD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD AFTER CRESTING THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS. THE CYCLONE WILL
TRANSITION INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER LAND BY TAU 96 WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THEREFORE,
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#112 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:59 pm

Image

very well defined eye as bolaven nears okinawa...
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#113 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:01 pm

Meow wrote:Bolaven becomes the strongest typhoon in 2012.


Guchol earlier this year also reached 100kt according to JMA but in terms of pressure, Bolaven definitely winds (so far)... good luck James and the rest of Okinawa! :D
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#114 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:04 pm

how did bolaven weakened? yeah dvorak estimates went down but the eye has remained very strong...even on dvorak imagery, an all white developed and surrounds the eye...look how poorly organized isaac is and all estimates barely showing a tropical storm at 2.5 but look what recon found...

my personal intensity is 135 knots!


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Last edited by euro6208 on Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#115 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:07 pm

JTWC designates the term "supertyphoon" to a storm, but regardless of that, a 10-min sustained of 100kts is more than enough to cause some serious damage. Also amazed by its size, with 50-kt wind field that large!


Agreed, Guchol reached the same intensity (100kts) from the JMA but considering the enormous size of the typhoon, that would surely give a lower pressure.
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Re:

#116 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:12 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Wow 910! Is that the lowest since Megi in 2010? JMA maintains this intensity for 24 hours.


madness wrote:Yep, this is the most intense system since Super Typhoon Megi 892HPa which was in 2010
I am staggered that JMA officially haven't classified it as a Super Typhoon - it looks very impressive


there could have been a lower and stronger storm since megi...Megi had recon penetrated into it and found an 893mb cp but that was hours before landfall so who knows how strong she got but recon did find sustained 1 min winds of 165 to 175 knots!... :double: since then, we rely on wimpy dvorak estimates...ever since the recon ended in 1987...
Last edited by euro6208 on Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#117 Postby Meow » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:14 pm

madness wrote:Yep, this is the most intense system since Super Typhoon Megi 892HPa which was in 2010
I am staggered that JMA officially haven't classified it as a Super Typhoon - it looks very impressive

The JMA only has four official scales: TD, TS, STS and TY. Thus, the official title of Megi is just Typhoon Megi, not Super Typhoon Megi. The pressure was 885 hPa, not 892 hPa.

So is Bolaven. No matter how strong it is, it is just Typhoon Bolaven officially.
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Re: Re:

#118 Postby Meow » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:16 pm

euro6208 wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Wow 910! Is that the lowest since Megi in 2010? JMA maintains this intensity for 24 hours.


there could have been lower since those are just guesstimates...Megi had recon penetrated into it since then, we rely on wimpy dvorak estimates...

The JTWC did not follow the recon so much. Had it followed, Megi would have 165 knots winds instead of 160 knots.
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#119 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:26 pm

Quick update, I'm in town of Higashi on NE coast of Okinawa, found solid concrete building to shelter in. Looking at nearby obs we're getting sustained winds of around 40kts hourly, with some pretty strong gusts. Expecting massive deterioration in weather over next few hours!
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#120 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 12:25 am

Image

outer rainbands already affecting okinawa...conditions should rapidly deteriorate in the coming hours...
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