WPAC: BOLAVEN - Extratropical

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StormingB81
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#61 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 8:44 pm

Okinawa is in tccor 3 could be the worst in 13 years they said
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#62 Postby angelisagemini » Thu Aug 23, 2012 9:03 pm

We live right on the ocean, but we're on the third floor. Should I be concerned about storm surge? The base facebook page has told people to check with a higher up as to what they should do, as if those people are storm experts that should be passing out advice.

Storms make me anxious, but I don't want to over react either. I have limited experience here so don't really know what to do this time.
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#63 Postby Infdidoll » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:21 pm

angelisagemini wrote:We live right on the ocean, but we're on the third floor. Should I be concerned about storm surge? The base facebook page has told people to check with a higher up as to what they should do, as if those people are storm experts that should be passing out advice.

Storms make me anxious, but I don't want to over react either. I have limited experience here so don't really know what to do this time.


I wouldn't be too worried. I just moved from Oki a month ago. We lived right on the Ginowan sea wall a stone's throw from the ocean on the 1st floor of a high rise (maybe you're in our old building! :D ) The storm surge was never really that bad. You could see some pretty impressive waves crashing onto the rocks, but not once did we experience any flooding problems from the ocean spilling over the wall much. If you have the big "jacks" out on the wall, you should be fine. We were really, really impressed with how well our building held up during the typhoons we were there for. Apparently, they build everything to a code because of the frequent typhoons. Our housing agent said the windows were storm grade and the buildings were usually meant to withstand winds up to 200 mph. There are very few non-reinforced wooden structures still out there, though there are a few. Your biggest danger comes from flying debris. Make sure you bring in everything from your balcony. We didn't even leave our heavier wooden patio table outside.

When I first got to Oki, I was just as terrified and living so close to the ocean scared me. Honestly, I probably should have been more worried about earthquakes and tsunamis. Just make sure you have flashlights, a handheld can opener, plenty of non-perishables, etc. and you should be fine. You also might want to plan on where your family will sleep away from the windows (not because the windows will give from the wind itself, but because some unthinking neighbor might leave something out that WILL make your window give). Typhoons get REALLY loud. For the most part, you might have a few sleepless nights but you should come out of it okay. Your vehicles, on the other hand, may not. If you are living on the sea wall and they are unprotected and you want no damage, take them to Typhoon Motors. I believe I was told they offer typhoon storage for vehicles. Our vehicles suffered a little damage, but we did have a few neighbors who lost windshields and windows because of debris from the neighboring factories and one neighbor had a satellite dish through his roof. Look up Pat's Sats, too, and book early for them to reinstall your satellite dish. After one typhoon, we took our satellite dish down and it took a month for them to come back out and reinstall it.

Hope I've helped ease some fears! Your first few will be terrifying, and then you may become sick and twisted like many of us and look forward to them. However, back in the States, I don't look forward to them at all because the building codes just aren't the same. Prepare to let Japanese construction amaze you! :wink:
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#64 Postby yulou » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:26 pm

its eye "opened"
Image
but dry air is still strong.so it developed slowly.
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#65 Postby HurricaneBill » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:28 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:I would not be surprised if Bolaven becomes a super typhoon. I notice storms with small eyes often undergo rapid intensification. Case in point, Opal and Wilma.


That's why it's often referred to as the "dreaded pinhole eye".
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#66 Postby angelisagemini » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:57 pm

Infdidoll wrote:
angelisagemini wrote:We live right on the ocean, but we're on the third floor. Should I be concerned about storm surge? The base facebook page has told people to check with a higher up as to what they should do, as if those people are storm experts that should be passing out advice.

Storms make me anxious, but I don't want to over react either. I have limited experience here so don't really know what to do this time.


I wouldn't be too worried. I just moved from Oki a month ago. We lived right on the Ginowan sea wall a stone's throw from the ocean on the 1st floor of a high rise (maybe you're in our old building! :D ) The storm surge was never really that bad. You could see some pretty impressive waves crashing onto the rocks, but not once did we experience any flooding problems from the ocean spilling over the wall much. If you have the big "jacks" out on the wall, you should be fine. We were really, really impressed with how well our building held up during the typhoons we were there for. Apparently, they build everything to a code because of the frequent typhoons. Our housing agent said the windows were storm grade and the buildings were usually meant to withstand winds up to 200 mph. There are very few non-reinforced wooden structures still out there, though there are a few. Your biggest danger comes from flying debris. Make sure you bring in everything from your balcony. We didn't even leave our heavier wooden patio table outside.

When I first got to Oki, I was just as terrified and living so close to the ocean scared me. Honestly, I probably should have been more worried about earthquakes and tsunamis. Just make sure you have flashlights, a handheld can opener, plenty of non-perishables, etc. and you should be fine. You also might want to plan on where your family will sleep away from the windows (not because the windows will give from the wind itself, but because some unthinking neighbor might leave something out that WILL make your window give). Typhoons get REALLY loud. For the most part, you might have a few sleepless nights but you should come out of it okay. Your vehicles, on the other hand, may not. If you are living on the sea wall and they are unprotected and you want no damage, take them to Typhoon Motors. I believe I was told they offer typhoon storage for vehicles. Our vehicles suffered a little damage, but we did have a few neighbors who lost windshields and windows because of debris from the neighboring factories and one neighbor had a satellite dish through his roof. Look up Pat's Sats, too, and book early for them to reinstall your satellite dish. After one typhoon, we took our satellite dish down and it took a month for them to come back out and reinstall it.

Hope I've helped ease some fears! Your first few will be terrifying, and then you may become sick and twisted like many of us and look forward to them. However, back in the States, I don't look forward to them at all because the building codes just aren't the same. Prepare to let Japanese construction amaze you! :wink:


Thanks for such a nice response, that really eases my worries!

We've been here for two years already so we were here for Songda and Muifa, but I never saw anyone talking about storm surges and wave heights before so I was concerned, especially since this storm is so big! I know I was really impressed with how loud Songda got, I'm sure this one will be even more impressive. We're very lucky to have a two car garage and our living room is in the center of our house so we just drag our mattresses in there and camp out for the duration. I think we're as prepped as can be, just need to charge the electricals and hit up the library for some entertainment options!
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#67 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:16 pm

Image


WTPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 21.0N 133.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 133.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.2N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 23.5N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 24.6N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 25.7N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 28.8N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 35.5N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 44.9N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 133.4E.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z
IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN




WDPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 232354Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW SEVERAL FORMATIVE
FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE NOTICEABLE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT SIX HOURS AGO HAS SINCE BEGUN TO BUILD IN AS RADIAL OUTFLOW
IMPROVES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SLIGHTLY EASED TO 10-15 KNOTS FROM
THE NORTH. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMAGERY AND AGREEABLE CENTER FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 102 KNOTS FROM KNES, RJTD, AND
PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 16W IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
TEN DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS. THE SELF-MAINTAINED MESO-ANTICYCLONE
REMAINS OVERHEAD OF THE LLCC PROVIDING IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) VWS ABOVE THE SYSTEM. TY 16W CONTINUES TO TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED STR TO THE
NORTH, ANCHORED JUST EAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN. THE PAST SIX HOUR TRACK
MOTION HAS TAKEN A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD PATH THEN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED AS IT SEEMS THE LARGE SIZE OF TY 16W IS MODIFYING THE
STEERING STR AT A FASTER PACE THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER,
THIS IS A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN FORECAST TRACK AND DOES NOT CHANGE
THE LLCC POSITION WHEN NEAR OKINAWA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIMETER
OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EXTRAORDINARY SIZE AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE CYCLONE, IT WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY THE STR,
RESULTING IN A MORE POLEWARD STORM MOTION. AFTER TAU 48 A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM MONGOLIA AND TRACKING TOWARD THE
YELLOW SEA WILL WEAKEN THE STR RESULTING IN AN EVEN MORE POLEWARD
STORM MOTION. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 120
KNOTS BY TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT
APPROACHES LANDFALL OVER OKINAWA NEAR 260800Z. BY TAU 72 TY 16W
SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
HOWEVER, A BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD SLIGHTLY COMBAT THE DECLINING OCEAN
PARAMETERS. OBJECTIVE AID GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF
REMAINING DIRECTLY OVER OKINAWA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS PULLED
SLIGHTLY EAST OF OKINAWA THIS RUN DUE TO THE RIGHT OUTLIER IN GFDN.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 16W SHOULD TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS
CAUSED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH. TRACK SPEEDS WILL
ACCELERATE DURING THIS TIME AND INTENSITY WILL BE ON THE DECLINE AS
OCEAN PARAMETERS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND WESTERLY VWS INCREASES TO
STRONG LEVELS. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
OVERLAND BY TAU 120. OBJECTIVE AID GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN
REGARDS TO THE LANDFALL POSITION WITH AN APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SPREAD
BETWEEN THE LEFTMOST OUTLIER, GFS, AND THE RIGHTMOST OUTLIER, GFDN.
REGARDLESS, ALL TRACKERS STILL INDICATE LANDFALL OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA. DUE TO THE DEEP UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND AMPLIFIED RIDGING IN RESPONSE THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST CURVING OVER
NORTHERN KOREA. THIS IS FURTHER VALIDATED BY ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE RUNS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#68 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:30 pm

Image

very small eye...
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

B In macau
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#69 Postby B In macau » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:17 am

Bolaven now Cat4 at 115kn 132mph big winds!

I am headed to Okinawa on the 6th I hope everyone stays safe and there isnt to much damage


WTPN32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 21.7N 133.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 133.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 23.1N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 24.2N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 25.1N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 26.5N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 30.1N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 37.2N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 46.2N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 132.9E.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND
250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#70 Postby phwxenthusiast » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:39 am

:uarrow: indeed really good dual outflow and strong convective ring... however, i have a feeling we may see an eyewall replacement soon... aside from dry air, i think we're seeing the same issue that plagued Tembin when it was still southeast of Taiwan... that time, Tembin weakened only to restrengthened back again when it was approaching landfall...

Image

looking at the microwave above, the inner eyewall might eventually choke and the outer wall seems to be actually forming already... then again, it may maintain that pinhole eye up to landfall... either way, this is still a big threat for Okinawa... :eek:

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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#71 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:39 am

a direct hit for okinawa!...
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#72 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:17 am

Very impressive.
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#73 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:35 am

Image

up to 120 knots! could become a super typhoon...

WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 133.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 133.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 23.4N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 24.3N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 25.4N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 27.0N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 31.5N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 39.2N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 48.9N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 132.7E.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND
251500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN



WDPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FORMING A WELL
DEFINED EYEWALL. THE SYMMETRIC TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING FEATURES HAVE
BEEN RADIALLY EXPANDING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH THE EYE
BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED. THERE IS AN APPARENT WOBBLE OF THE EYE
WITHIN THE EIR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
NOTED IMPROVEMENT AND IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 102 TO 127 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE IS
PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW MOST NOTABLY IN THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TY 16W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH, ANCHORED JUST EAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIMETER
OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ALLOWING FOR TY 16W TO INTENSIFY TO SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 72 DECREASING OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BUT WILL BE OFFSET FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW FROM AN APPROACHING DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 16W SHOULD TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS
CAUSED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH. TRACK SPEEDS WILL
ACCELERATE DURING THIS TIME AND INTENSITY WILL BE ON THE DECLINE AS
OCEAN PARAMETERS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES TO STRONG LEVELS. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN PRIOR TO TY 16W MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST OF NORTH KOREA AROUND TAU 96. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL STILL
BE AT TYPHOON STRENGTH AROUND TAU 96, INCREASING MID-LATITUDE
ADVECTION OF COOLER, DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 120 AS IT IS ABSORBED WITHIN
THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 120, AND BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST CURVING OVER NORTHERN
KOREA.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#74 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:06 am

Image

6.5 from PGTW

A. TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN)

B. 24/1332Z

C. 22.6N

D. 132.7E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
PLUS BF YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO
YIELD A DT OF 6.5. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS 6.0. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HERMANN

6.0 from KNES although dvorak is not handling intensity well...


TXPQ23 KNES 241529
TCSWNP

A. 16W (BOLAVEN)

B. 24/1501Z

C. 22.5N

D. 132.5E

E. TWO/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DRAMATIC SHIFT OF EYE TOWARD THE WEST BETWEEN 1332Z AND
1501Z IMAGES DRAWS CONCERN FOR POSITION ACCURACY...HENCE CONFIDENCE
NUMBER OF TWO. STILL GIVEN SMALL CONSTRICTING EYE (AND DUAL EYEWALL
FEATURE IN MI) IT IS EQUALLY LIKELY THAT THIS CHANGE COULD BE A TRICORDIAL
WOBBLE....WILL HAVE TO ADJUST FIX/UPDATE LATER IF NAVIGATION IS INDEED
OFF. OW EYE JUST BARELY MISSES CRITERIA FOR EMBEDDING IN BLACK SO EYE NO
IS 5.0 IN LG WITH EYE ADJ OF PLUS .5 FOR BLACK RING FOR DT OF 5.5. MET
IS 6.0 AND PT IS 6.0. FT IS BASED ON MET/PT...AS DT WAS ONLY A FEW KM
FROM BEING A 6.0...AND STRUCTURE SEEN IN MI INDICATES MUCH STRONGER
SYSTEM...THAT EIR DVORAK TECHNIQUE MAY JUST NOT HANDLE CORRECTLY.


I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/1110Z 22.1N 133.1E SSMIS


...GALLINA


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 921.7mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.2 6.2
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#75 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:32 pm

According to google earth the eye of bolaven is 37 km wide and it has a total size of 580 km, that an average size for a typhoon, right?
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#76 Postby Dave C » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:43 pm

An eyewall replacement cycle has occured. You can see the small eye made a loop as it rotated around in the larger eye, also the red cloud tops are encircling the tiny eye about 20
miles outside of it. Eye should become larger as inner eyewall completely disapates shortly.
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#77 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:29 pm

150 mph :double: :eek: :double: :eek:
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#78 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:48 pm

The official intensity is still at 85 kts (100 mph) (10-min).
The (inofficial) intensity for one-minute sustained winds has been set to 125 kts (145 mph) by JTWC.
The Dvorak estimates aren't too reliable as they're currently showing "rapid dissipation".
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#79 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:54 pm

So it's 145 mph. Still :double: :eek: :double: :eek:!!!
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#80 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:24 pm

Too bad there is no Recon out there, that would sure help in systems like these!
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